Indian agricultural exporters are poised for modest gains after US President Donald Trump unexpectedly rolled back tariffs on dozens of food items, easing pressures that had built up over months of trade friction. The move, announced on Friday, comes as the White House scrambles to contain rising grocery inflation in the US — a domestic concern that has opened a narrow window of opportunity for India’s farm shipments.
Trump removed duties on more than 200 food products, including beef, amid mounting consumer unease over food prices. While EU and Vietnamese exporters earlier faced 15–20 percent duties, Indian suppliers were hit far harder after the US doubled tariffs on selected goods to as high as 50 percent. New Delhi also continues to face a punitive 25 percent levy on oil-linked imports from the end of August.
An analyst estimates that between $2.5 billion and $3 billion worth of Indian exports could benefit from the exemptions. “This order opens space for premium, speciality and value-added products,” he noted. “Those who move up the value chain will be better shielded from price pressures and can tap rising US demand.”
Officials familiar with India–US negotiations say the tariff rollback is a positive signal for broader trade discussions that have been fraught since this year’s series of tariff hikes. India’s exports to the US fell nearly 12 percent year on year in September to $5.43 billion, with farm goods — worth $5.7 billion of the country’s $87 billion in US-bound exports in 2024 — particularly affected.
“The move benefits exporters of tea, coffee, cashew and fruits and vegetables,” a senior Indian farm export official said.
But analysts warn the gains may be limited. Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative, noted that India’s presence in many tariff-exempt categories — including tomatoes, citrus fruits, melons, bananas and fruit juices — remains weak. “The shift may help revive some lost demand in spices and niche horticulture, but countries in Latin America, Africa and ASEAN will benefit more,” he said.
Exporters also point to challenges that could dampen the benefits: elevated freight costs, tough competition from Vietnam and Indonesia, and tightening US quality requirements. “Tariff relief is important, but recovery will depend on logistics and our ability to match prices,” one exporter said.
Clarity is still awaited on whether India will escape the 25 percent reciprocal tariff or the full 50 percent rate. Even so, industry players say the rollback offers a timely chance for India to reposition itself in premium farm segments if supply chains and compliance standards are strengthened.