The Indian rupee's slipping beyond the 90-per-dollar mark may have been widely anticipated, but the crossing has reopened a long-simmering debate: has India leaned too heavily on currency weakening as an economic cushion rather than addressing deeper structural shortcomings?
The latest decline was smooth and unsurprising — the currency had hovered close to the threshold for days — yet it set off a fresh round of political and policy chatter. For decades now, successive governments have been accused of using the rupee as a safety valve to offset policy failures. And the burden of this strategy, critics argue, falls disproportionately on the poor, who shoulder higher costs for imported essentials like cooking gas and fuel.
India has an estimated 70–80 crore low-income citizens, a constituency that requires targeted, well-designed policy interventions. Instead, detractors say, policymakers often fall back on a familiar playbook reminiscent of trickle-down economics. Still, many economists and business leaders continue to defend the weak-rupee approach as a growth lever — one that boosts exports and shields domestic manufacturers from intense Chinese competition.
While the rupee’s softness over the past year has done little to lift exports in the short term, the longer-term record is more telling. Over the last decade, the rupee has weakened by about 35%, while merchandise exports have risen 65% to $437 billion in 2024–25. Services exports, too, rose 55% to $387 billion over the same period.
Yet comparisons with China reveal the limits of currency-driven competitiveness. Chinese exports surged to $3.58 trillion — more than four times India’s total — even though the yuan weakened by just 11%. Structural strength, scale, and efficiency clearly matter more than nominal currency moves.
Thailand offers another contrast. The baht strengthened by 11% over ten years, yet the country’s exports grew modestly, and tourism flourished regardless — drawing 3.5 crore visitors in 2024, compared to India’s 1 crore.
India has repeatedly identified tourism as a sunrise sector, but the ground reality appears more sobering. Hotel operators in Goa say they see little sign of transformative change, even as Thailand continues to outclass India on price, quality and visitor experience. As anecdotal evidence goes, even routine hotel bookings in Bangkok highlight how much more value travellers receive there.
The underlying message: in too many sectors, India remains a high-cost, low-efficiency economy.
A great deal remains unaddressed — high logistics costs, customs delays, opaque regulations, tax harassment, corruption, and deep agricultural inefficiencies among them. Many of these problems have lingered for a decade or more.
Addressing these requires sustained political focus, institutional energy and a willingness to step away from self-congratulatory narratives. Without that, the rupee risks continuing its slow, painful slide — and the uncomfortable question posed half in jest, Next stop: 100? — could soon become an economic reality.