Markets

A turbulent week ahead for commodity market

A dense line-up of economic data and central bank signals is likely to keep traders on edge.

Jose Mathew

After a week marked by steady gains in gold and choppy moves in energy, global commodity markets head into the new trading week, starting from February 16, bracing for fresh turbulence. A dense line-up of economic data and central bank signals is likely to keep traders on edge. Thin liquidity at the start of the week, owing to public holidays in several major economies, could further amplify price swings and exaggerate reactions to incoming data.

US macroeconomic triggers

Investors will closely track a series of key economic indicators and policy signals in the United States:

  • Gross Domestic Product data

  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation

  • Personal spending figures

  • Weekly jobless claims

  • Purchasing Managers’ Index readings

  • Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting

  • Speeches by Federal Reserve officials

Stronger-than-expected economic data could strengthen the dollar and exert pressure on precious metals. Conversely, softer readings may revive expectations of interest rate cuts and lend support to gold and silver.

Energy market drivers

Crude oil prices will react to supply and demand indicators, including:

  • Inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute

  • Stockpile data from the Energy Information Administration

  • Refinery utilisation rates

  • Fuel inventory levels

  • The Baker Hughes rig count

Global Purchasing Managers’ Index data from the United States, Eurozone, United Kingdom, India, Japan and Australia will influence demand expectations.

Natural gas will remain sensitive to:

  • Weekly storage reports

  • Weather-related demand forecasts

  • Trends in industrial activity

Additional global cues

Currency movements and broader risk sentiment may be shaped by:

  • Inflation and labour market data from the United Kingdom

  • Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index and Purchasing Managers’ Index data from the Eurozone and Germany

  • Consumer Price Index and Gross Domestic Product data from Japan

  • Wholesale Price Index data from India

  • Policy signals from the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Gold

Gold began the past week at $4,983.54 and climbed to a high of $5,119.16 before closing at $5,042.20, posting a weekly gain of 1.51 percent. The metal held firmly above the psychological $5,000 mark, signalling sustained buying interest.

Technical view

  • Immediate support: $4,560–$4,520

  • Stronger support: near $4,385

  • First resistance: $5,120

  • Broader resistance: near $5,600

The broader trend remains positive, with prices trading above rising weekly moving averages.

Silver

Silver traded between $86.30 and $74.01 before settling at $77.34, down 0.77 percent in the past week. Price action indicates consolidation following recent volatility.

Technical view

  • Immediate support: $74.00–$73.50

  • Major support base: near $64.00

  • Immediate resistance: $86.00–$87.00

  • Stronger supply zone: near $104.50

Brent crude oil

Brent opened at $67.25 and moved within a $70.72–$66.89 range, ending at $67.72 at the weekend. The recovery from weekly lows suggests tentative stabilisation.

Technical view

  • Key support: $65.20–$63.30

  • Immediate resistance: $71.50–$72.90

Natural gas

Natural gas slipped 6.40 percent for the week, closing at $3.08 after trading between $3.25 and $2.98.

Technical view

  • Immediate support: $2.71–$2.62

  • Immediate resistance: $3.45–$3.65

Momentum remains fragile, and volatility may persist in the near term.

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