This week is likely to be packed with key global events that could drive volatility across gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas. The primary focus will be on the US CPI and PPI inflation data, which will shape expectations for future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen the US dollar and weigh on precious metals, while softer inflation may support gold and silver. Speeches by Federal Reserve officials throughout the week could also influence market sentiment.
For crude oil, attention will be on the OPEC meeting, along with the API and EIA weekly crude inventory reports. Any indication of tighter supply from OPEC or a larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories could lift oil prices, while rising stockpiles may keep prices under pressure.
China's economic data—including Q2 GDP, industrial production, retail sales, trade balance and credit growth—will be closely watched as the world's largest commodity consumer. Stronger-than-expected data could improve demand expectations for industrial commodities and crude oil, while weaker figures may weigh on the broader commodity complex.
For natural gas, traders will focus on the US natural gas storage report. A smaller-than-expected increase in storage could support prices, while another large inventory build may reinforce the recent bearish trend.
Commodity markets are expected to remain highly event-driven. Gold and silver will largely react to US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary, crude oil will be influenced by the OPEC meeting and US inventory data, while natural gas will remain sensitive to storage figures. China's economic releases will also serve as an important indicator of global commodity demand, making it a crucial week for the near-term direction of commodity markets.
Gold opened the week at $4,174.96, compared with the previous close of $4,122.75, marking a gap-up opening of 1.27%. The early strength was supported by renewed safe-haven demand amid lingering global uncertainties and mixed expectations over the Federal Reserve's policy path. However, the rally lost momentum as profit booking emerged near key resistance levels. Gold closed at $4,120.35, recording a marginal weekly decline of 0.06%.
Gold continues to trade within a crucial demand zone after a prolonged corrective phase. Immediate support is placed at $4,085 and $3,940, while resistance is seen at $4,220 and $4,330. The latest price action reflects a pause in the recent decline, with buyers attempting to stabilise prices near support. However, a decisive breakout above resistance is required to confirm a stronger recovery.
Market participants will closely monitor US inflation data, Federal Reserve commentary, and movements in the US dollar and Treasury yields. Sustaining above $4,085 could encourage gradual accumulation and improve the prospects of testing $4,220 and $4,330. On the downside, a breach of $4,085 may trigger fresh selling pressure, exposing gold to a move towards $3,940 before stronger buying interest is likely to emerge.
Silver opened in the past the week at $62.35, compared with the previous close of $60.97, registering a gap-up opening of 2.26%. The initial rally was supported by stronger precious metals sentiment and safe-haven buying, but gains faded as a firmer US dollar and cautious positioning ahead of key macroeconomic data encouraged sellers to re-enter the market. Silver ended the week at $59.83, recording a weekly decline of 1.87%.
Silver remains under corrective pressure, though prices are attempting to stabilise after approaching a key support area. Immediate support is seen at $56.50 and $50.50, while resistance is placed at $65.00 and $71.50. The inability to sustain above the $65.00 mark indicates that bulls are yet to regain control, keeping the broader structure neutral to negative in the short term.
Market direction will depend on US inflation data, Federal Reserve communication and movements in the dollar index. Holding above $56.50 could attract bargain buying and allow silver to challenge $65.00 again, with a successful breakout opening the path towards $71.50. On the other hand, a decisive break below $56.50 may accelerate downside momentum and expose the metal to the next major support at $50.50.
Brent crude oil opened in the past the week at $71.90, compared with the previous close of $71.93, registering a marginal gap-down opening of 0.04%. The market initially remained under pressure amid concerns over global demand, but sentiment improved sharply as stronger buying emerged on tightening supply expectations, lower US crude inventories, geopolitical concerns and optimism over seasonal fuel consumption. Brent settled at $75.22, posting a weekly gain of 4.57% and recovering a significant portion of the previous week's losses.
Brent has rebounded from a crucial support region, signalling that buyers are attempting to regain near-term control. Immediate support is placed at $71.00 and $65.20, while resistance is seen at $80.35 and $85.80. The latest price action indicates improving momentum, although prices need to sustain above the first resistance level to confirm a stronger bullish continuation.
Market participants will closely monitor developments related to global oil demand, OPEC+ supply expectations, US inventory reports and geopolitical headlines. Holding above $71.00 could strengthen bullish sentiment and pave the way for an advance towards $80.35. A successful breakout above this level may extend the recovery towards $85.80. However, if Brent slips below $71.00, profit booking could intensify, with the next downside target around $65.20.
Natural gas opened in the past week at $3.1524, compared with the previous close of $3.2004, registering a gap-down opening of 1.49%. Selling pressure intensified throughout the week as larger-than-expected storage injections and expectations of comfortable supply outweighed weather-related demand. The contract settled at $2.9152, posting a weekly decline of 8.91%, with bears regaining firm control after the failure to hold above the key $3.00 level.
Natural gas has slipped below an important psychological level, indicating that downside momentum has strengthened in the near term. Immediate support is placed at $2.67 and $2.37, while resistance is seen at $3.06 and $3.40. The recent breakdown suggests buyers need to reclaim the $3.06 level before any meaningful recovery can develop.
Trading is likely to remain highly sensitive to US storage data, production levels and updated weather forecasts across major consuming regions, as well as global developments. Holding above $2.67 could encourage short covering and allow prices to retest $3.06. A sustained move above this barrier may extend the recovery towards $3.40. However, if selling pressure persists and $2.67 is breached, the decline could deepen towards $2.37, keeping the short-term bias on the downside.
Research support: Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com
(SEBI-registered research analyst) Registration No: INH000023843