Indian markets are expected to open on a cautiously positive note on Friday, with investors awaiting the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy announcement and fresh GDP data later in the day. While inflationary pressures remain elevated, markets largely expect the RBI to keep interest rates unchanged for now.
The central bank's revised projections for inflation and economic growth for the current financial year will be closely watched. The National Statistical Office (NSO) will also release annual and fourth-quarter GDP figures this evening under the new 2022-23 base year series.
Annual GDP growth for 2025-26 is expected at 7.4-7.6 percent, while fourth-quarter growth is projected at 7.1-7.3 percent. The NSO's February estimate had pegged annual growth at 7.6 percent, compared with 7.1 percent in 2024-25.
Crude oil prices remain subdued despite limited progress in peace efforts in West Asia, offering some relief to global markets.
Gift Nifty closed at 23,527.50 on Thursday night and climbed to 23,615 in early trading before easing slightly, indicating a mildly positive opening for the Nifty.
Investor enthusiasm for technology stocks appears to be cooling, particularly in semiconductor companies.
Broadcom plunged 12 percent and Micron Technology fell 8 percent as investors reassessed lofty valuations in the AI-driven technology rally. Market participants increasingly believe that not all AI-related stocks will remain attractive investment opportunities.
At the same time, interest shifted towards industrial and service-sector companies despite rising inflation concerns. The divergence was reflected in Thursday's US trading session.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 874.86 points, or 1.73 percent, to a record close of 51,561.93. The S&P 500 gained 30.63 points, or 0.41 percent, to end at 7,584.31. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 23.02 points, or 0.09 percent, to 26,830.96 after failing to hold early gains.
Weakness in technology stocks continued in futures trading on Friday morning.
Dow futures fell 73 points (0.14 percent)
S&P 500 futures declined 47 points (0.62 percent)
Nasdaq futures dropped 337 points (1.10 percent)
Among Indian ADRs traded in New York:
HDFC Bank ended at $23.90 after giving up gains in after-hours trade.
ICICI Bank closed at $26.10 with marginal gains.
Infosys ended at $12.56 after a slight decline in extended trading.
Wipro remained unchanged at $2.07.
European markets rose on Thursday despite negative developments in individual stocks.
Universal Music Group fell 5.8 percent after billionaire investor Bill Ackman's hedge fund abandoned a second attempt to acquire the company. Nokia declined 6 percent amid the global sell-off in technology shares.
Asian markets extended losses on Friday as the semiconductor sell-off spread across the region.
Japan's Nikkei fell 2.2 percent, while Australia's benchmark index lost 1.2 percent.
South Korea's Kospi plunged 4.2 percent as chipmakers came under heavy selling pressure. Samsung Electronics dropped 6 percent and SK Hynix fell 8 percent following the sharp correction in US semiconductor stocks.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng opened down 1 percent, while Shanghai's Composite Index slipped 0.5 percent.
Indian equities traded cautiously on Thursday ahead of the RBI policy announcement. Although benchmark indices ended with marginal gains, broader markets performed better.
Reports that the government may issue an ordinance granting tax exemptions to foreign investors in government bonds helped lift sentiment. The proposal reportedly includes exemptions from long-term capital gains tax and withholding tax, aimed at attracting greater foreign capital inflows.
The anticipated ordinance is expected after the RBI policy announcement.
Media stocks outperformed after Zee Entertainment secured broadcasting rights for the FIFA World Cup. The stock jumped 12.2 percent, helping the media index rise more than 2 percent.
The IT sector remained weak amid concerns that advances in artificial intelligence could gradually reduce demand for traditional IT services.
Rajesh Exports hit the lower circuit after the Securities and Exchange Board of India issued an interim order questioning the company's financial disclosures. The company has denied the allegations and said it would submit supporting documents.
Federal Bank touched a record high of ₹303.80 after its inclusion in the MSCI index before closing slightly lower.
Consumer durables, banking, financials, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, real estate, FMCG, tourism and capital market stocks were among the gainers.
On Thursday:
Sensex rose 13.84 points (0.02 percent) to 74,360.01
Nifty 50 gained 10.95 points (0.05 percent) to 23,416.55
Bank Nifty advanced 121.90 points (0.22 percent) to 54,307.85
Nifty Midcap 100 climbed 0.46 percent to 60,966.65
Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 0.49 percent to 18,121.05
Market breadth remained balanced. On the BSE, 2,148 stocks advanced and 2,036 declined. On the NSE, 1,804 stocks gained while 1,458 fell.
Foreign portfolio investors remained heavy sellers, offloading equities worth ₹4,447 crore. Domestic institutions absorbed much of the selling, purchasing shares worth ₹4,360 crore.
Gold prices continue to fluctuate with changing expectations surrounding a possible Iran-US agreement.
After touching $4,515.80 an ounce on Thursday, gold settled at $4,476.20, up $40.30. The metal eased to around $4,450 in early Friday trade.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold fell ₹80 per sovereign to ₹1,14,480.
Silver declined to $72.92 an ounce. Platinum traded at $1,876, palladium at $1,289 and rhodium at $7,425.
Industrial metals remained under pressure amid concerns that US interest rates could stay elevated.
Copper slipped 0.35 percent to $13,871.65 a tonne, while aluminium fell 1.59 percent to $3,668.67. Zinc, lead, nickel and tin each declined by more than 2 percent.
Rubber prices continued to rise in both domestic and international markets.
In Bangkok, RSS-3 rubber climbed to $312.55 per quintal and RSS-1 to $316.10, the highest levels since January 2017. Concerns over El Niño-related supply disruptions in Thailand and Indonesia are supporting prices.
In Kerala, RSS-4 rubber rose to ₹26,300 per quintal. Industry bodies have renewed calls for the removal of import duties on rubber.
Cocoa prices fell 3.51 percent to $3,929 a tonne on Thursday. Traders continue to assess the potential impact of El Niño on global cocoa production.
The US dollar index closed at 99.41 on Thursday and edged up to 99.44 on Friday morning.
The euro traded at $1.1612 and the pound at $1.342. The Japanese yen weakened to around 159.92 per dollar, while the Chinese yuan remained steady at 6.77 per dollar.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note eased to 4.469 percent.
The rupee lost another eight paise on Thursday to close at 95.79 against the dollar.
Expectations of tax incentives for foreign bond investors briefly supported the currency, but gains proved short-lived. Currency markets are now focused on the RBI's policy announcements.
In the offshore non-deliverable forward market, the dollar traded at ₹95.78. The euro strengthened to ₹110.24, while the yuan remained at ₹14.14.
Crude oil prices softened after Donald Trump suggested that an agreement involving West Asia could be reached this week.
Brent crude fell nearly 3 percent on Thursday to close at $95.03 a barrel before edging up to $95.42 in early trade on Friday. WTI crude traded at $93.12.
Cryptocurrencies rebounded after Thursday's sharp sell-off.
Bitcoin recovered from an intraday low of $61,340 to trade above $63,400. Ether gained 3 percent to around $1,750, while Solana climbed more than 5 percent to above $68.
Sensex: 74,360.01 (+0.02%)
Nifty 50: 23,416.55 (+0.05%)
Bank Nifty: 54,307.85 (+0.22%)
Nifty Midcap 100: 60,966.65 (+0.46%)
Nifty Smallcap 100: 18,121.05 (+0.49%)
Dow Jones: 51,561.93 (+1.73%)
S&P 500: 7,584.31 (+0.41%)
Nasdaq Composite: 26,830.96 (-0.09%)
Dollar: ₹95.79 (+₹0.08)
Gold (ounce): $4,476.20 (+$40.50)
Gold (sovereign): ₹1,14,480 (-₹80)
Brent crude: $95.03 (-$2.78)