Commodity markets this week are expected to be influenced by key global factors. Strong credit growth and trade data from China are positive for industrial metals, as they indicate better demand. However, weak retail sales and lower foreign investment in China point to some economic weakness, which may limit further price gains.
In the US, higher producer inflation and stable economic data could keep the dollar strong, which may put pressure on gold and silver. In the energy segment, rising crude oil inventories and higher natural gas storage levels suggest that supply is sufficient, which could keep prices under pressure despite steady demand.
Key drivers this week:
China data: Strong credit and trade vs weak retail demand
US inflation: Firm producer prices supporting dollar strength
Dollar movement: Pressure on precious metals
Energy supply: Rising inventories weighing on prices
Overall, commodity markets may remain mixed with a slightly negative bias. Metals may react to dollar strength and mixed signals from China, while crude oil and natural gas prices will depend mainly on supply data and demand outlook.
Gold started the week at $4,648.41, slightly lower than the previous close of $4,676.86, showing a small gap-down. Prices were weak initially but later recovered to around $4,857.55, where they faced resistance. Prices then eased slightly to close at $4,746.89, gaining about 1.5 percent.
Key levels:
Support: $4,410; $3,890
Resistance: $4,880; $5,600
Outlook for next week:
Holding above $4,410 may extend recovery
Break above $4,880 could trigger further upside
Failure to sustain may lead to sideways movement
Silver started the week at $73.01, almost unchanged from the previous close. Prices rose to a high of around $77.63 but faced resistance and profit booking. It later stabilised and closed at $75.83, up about 3.86 percent.
Key levels:
Support: $61.15; $45.50
Resistance: $80.60; $96.50
Outlook for next week:
Holding above $61.15 may keep uptrend intact
Break above $80.60 could strengthen momentum
Failure to move higher may result in consolidation
Brent crude started the week at $110.00, slightly above the previous close of $109.23. Prices initially rose to $111.89 but later saw heavy selling, falling sharply to a low of $90.40 before closing at $94.25, down about 13.7 percent.
Key levels:
Support: $88.35; $75.70
Resistance: $119.70; $138
Outlook for next week:
Prices below $119.70 indicate continued weakness
Break below $88.35 may lead to further downside
Any recovery likely to face resistance at higher levels
Natural gas started the week at $2.89, slightly higher than the previous close of $2.85. Prices failed to sustain gains, fell to around $2.71, and closed at $2.76, down about 3.18 percent.
Key levels:
Support: $2.62; $2.05
Resistance: $3.32; $4.11
Outlook for next week:
Below $3.32, negative trend may continue
Break below $2.62 could trigger further downside
Recovery likely to face resistance at higher levels
Note: Research support for this article was provided by: Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com, a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Registration No. INH000023843)
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are advised to consult a qualified financial advisor and conduct their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.