Global markets are entering October with conflicting signals. Expectations around another US interest-rate hike shifted sharply after softer inflation data, but stronger economic growth and elevated bond yields kept concerns alive.
The dollar strengthened, while Asian equities and US futures moved higher. Crude oil slipped below $100 a barrel and gold remained under pressure.
Gift Nifty closed at 22,656.50 on Wednesday night and slipped to around 22,578 early Thursday, indicating a weak opening for the Indian market.
Peace efforts in West Asia have made little progress. Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has moved closer to pre-war levels, although continuing attacks linked to Iran have kept shipping flows uneven.
Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea pipeline has resumed operations, easing concerns about a global crude shortage. However, shutdowns at several refineries in Iran, Gulf countries and Russia have tightened supplies of refined products, including diesel.
Reports that the US could impose restrictions on diesel exports have also pushed up diesel prices in Europe.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation rate, a key measure watched by the Federal Reserve, eased to 3.4% in August, below expectations of 3.7%.
Following the data, market expectations for a rate hike in October declined to 38.2%.
However, the bond market showed little relief. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury climbed above 5.6%, its highest level since 2002, while the 10-year yield again moved above 5.3%.
Investors will now watch the latest unemployment data and September jobs report for further clues on the direction of monetary policy.
US GDP growth for the April-June quarter was revised upward to 2.2% from the earlier estimate of 1.5%. Growth in the January-March quarter stood at 2.5%. Consumer spending increased 3.8% in the second quarter, signalling continued resilience in the US economy.
The stronger growth data revived concerns that the Federal Reserve could still raise interest rates this month. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari’s comments that inflation remains at an unacceptable level added to the pressure in bond markets.
US equities closed mixed on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 443.87 points, or 0.86%, to 50,906.05. The S&P 500 declined 19.30 points, or 0.25%, to 7,651.54.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite, however, rose 63.52 points, or 0.24%, to 26,861.06.
For September, the Dow lost 4.3% and the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, while the Nasdaq gained 1.9%.
During the June-September quarter, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained around 2% each, while the Dow declined 2.7%.
US index futures were slightly higher early Thursday. Dow futures gained 0.24%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.31% and Nasdaq futures advanced 0.32%.
Among Indian ADRs in New York, HDFC Bank fell 1.33% during regular trading before gaining 0.49% in after-hours trade to $22.45. ICICI Bank rose 1.10% and later remained largely unchanged at $27.55. Infosys gained 1.13% during regular trading but fell 0.93% in after-hours trade to $10.66. Wipro rose 2.48% during market hours before slipping 0.42% later to $1.6431.
European markets were largely weak on Wednesday as concerns over possible US restrictions on diesel exports weighed on sentiment.
French, British and Spanish markets declined, while Germany’s benchmark index and the Stoxx 600 posted marginal gains.
Asian markets were mostly higher early Thursday.
Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.80%. Taiwan’s benchmark rose 0.30%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 0.37% and China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.32%.
South Korea’s Kospi initially fell around 1.5% before recovering part of the losses. Australia’s benchmark index declined 1.29%.
Indian equities witnessed another volatile session on Wednesday. The Nifty swung more than 200 points during the day, while the Sensex fell over 700 points from its intraday high.
Global uncertainty and sustained foreign investor selling continued to weigh on sentiment. Sharp losses in HDFC Bank and Infosys added pressure on the Nifty.
Hospital stocks fell after the Supreme Court adopted a stricter stance on treatment costs. Shares of Apollo Hospitals, Fortis Healthcare, Max Healthcare, Aster DM Healthcare and Medanta declined by as much as 7%.
Pharma stocks also came under pressure, while metal, consumer durables and FMCG shares traded lower.
Realty stocks and some new-generation defence companies gained. Cochin Shipyard fell 3.26%.
BSE Ltd, despite being included in the Nifty 50, declined 3.5%. NSE Ltd slipped another 0.35%.
Market breadth was negative on the BSE, where 2,077 stocks advanced and 2,314 declined. On the NSE, 1,723 stocks gained and 1,801 fell.
Foreign institutional investors remained heavy sellers, recording net cash-market sales of ₹10,148.41 crore on Wednesday. Domestic institutional investors recorded net purchases of ₹11,271.73 crore.
Foreign investors withdrew ₹46,009 crore from Indian equities during September. In 2026 so far, they have sold shares worth about ₹2.6 lakh crore.
On Wednesday, the Sensex fell 48.78 points, or 0.07%, to close at 72,480.29. The Nifty declined 95.75 points, or 0.42%, to 22,620.45. Bank Nifty gained 373.10 points, or 0.69%, to 54,633.05. The Nifty Midcap 100 edged up 0.02% to 59,332.05, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 0.27% to 19,245.70.
Internal tensions within the Tata Group’s trusts appear to be deepening. Tata Trusts vice-chairman Venu Srinivasan has reportedly approached the Maharashtra Charity Commissioner against chairman Noel Tata.
Proceedings involving another trust have already been affected following a complaint from a former trustee. Further disruptions could add uncertainty around the governance structure of the trusts that exercise significant control over the Tata Group.
Gold fell on Wednesday despite easing rate-hike concerns. The metal declined 0.60%, or $25, to close at $4,158.10 an ounce. It recovered slightly to around $4,166 early Thursday.
In Keralam, the price of 22-carat gold rose ₹560 per pavan on Wednesday to ₹1,09,680.
Silver fell 1.72% to $60.54 an ounce. Platinum stood at $1,706, palladium at $1,188 and rhodium at $8,400.
Rubber prices moved higher in both international and Keralam markets. In Bangkok, RSS-1 rose to $285.40 per quintal and RSS-3 to $272. In Keralam, RSS-4 climbed to ₹28,000 per quintal.
Expectations of lower natural rubber availability due to weather-related disruptions have supported prices.
Industrial metals traded mixed on Wednesday. Copper rose 0.08% to $14,485.85 a tonne, while aluminium fell 2.02% to $3,165.31. Lead and zinc declined, while nickel and tin advanced.
Cocoa closed at $5,367 a tonne, while futures remained above $5,600. Production is estimated to fall 20% in Ivory Coast and 17% in Ghana. Arabica coffee stood at $2.907 per pound. Brazil’s 2026 coffee production is estimated to have increased 19.6%. Palm oil declined 0.17% to 4,616 Malaysian ringgit a tonne.
The US Dollar Index closed at 101.45 after a volatile session and moved up to 101.51 early Thursday. The euro weakened to $1.1323 and the pound to $1.3254. The Japanese yen slipped to 158.17 against the dollar, while the Chinese yuan traded around 6.70 per dollar. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.302%.
The rupee strengthened on Wednesday, supported by Reserve Bank of India intervention and some volatility in the dollar index.
The currency gained 15 paise to close at ₹95.83 against the dollar, compared with ₹95.98 in the previous session.
However, the dollar moved up to around ₹95.99 in the offshore forward market early Thursday, indicating renewed pressure on the rupee.
The Chinese yuan remained around ₹14.32, while the euro slipped to ₹108.76.
Crude oil prices dropped sharply. Brent crude fell $4.56 to close at $98.03 a barrel and remained near $98 early Thursday.
WTI crude was trading around $90.20 a barrel.
Cryptocurrency markets continued to see sharp swings.
Bitcoin slipped below $83,500 early Thursday, while Ether fell below $2,690 and Solana traded below $118.
Sensex: 72,480.29 | -0.07%
Nifty 50: 22,620.45 | -0.42%
Bank Nifty: 54,633.15 | +0.69%
Midcap 100: 59,332.05 | +0.02%
Smallcap 100: 19,245.70 | +0.27%
Dow Jones: 50,906.05 | -0.86%
S&P 500: 7,651.54 | -0.25%
Nasdaq: 26,861.06 | +0.24%
Dollar: ₹95.83 | -₹0.15
Gold, ounce: $4,158.10 | -$25
Gold, pavan: ₹1,09,680 | +₹560
Brent crude: $98.03 | -$4.56