The possibility of an interest rate cut in the United States has strengthened, and global markets are responding with renewed optimism. Asian stocks opened higher this morning, following a sharp rally on Wall Street overnight. Crude oil has fallen, gold continues its upward trend, and negotiations on the Ukraine peace framework appear to be moving in a positive direction. All of this has created a supportive environment for Indian markets as the December F&O series begins today.
The outline of a peace agreement for the Ukraine conflict was reportedly accepted during discussions between US and Ukrainian representatives in Dubai. Certain remaining issues will require further talks between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy before formal negotiations with Russia can proceed.
In the US, two more Federal Reserve Governors have publicly supported a rate cut. With the next Fed meeting scheduled for the second week of December, market expectations of a rate reduction have risen to above 80%. Reports suggest that Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, could replace Jerome Powell when he retires in March. Hassett is known for supporting deeper rate cuts, a signal that has boosted market confidence.
In India, falling inflation has strengthened expectations that the Reserve Bank of India may lower interest rates next week. Many analysts believe Governor Sanjay Malhotra and the Monetary Policy Committee are well-positioned to use this window to accelerate growth.
In GIFT City’s overnight derivatives trade, the Nifty closed at 26,169 on Tuesday, rising to 26,188 this morning before easing slightly. Indications suggest the Indian market may open with strong momentum today.
Across Europe, stock indices closed higher after the surge in US tech shares and the rising probability of a December rate cut. ABN Amro rallied 6.5% after announcing plans to cut 5,200 jobs and divest its personal loans subsidiary. Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk gained 4.5% following encouraging signals from trials of its obesity treatment drug Amicretin. Expectations around the Ukraine peace negotiation framework also lifted defence stocks.
In the US, the growing likelihood of a December rate cut—now pegged at 83%—fuelled a broad market rally. Meanwhile, competition in the AI semiconductor space intensified. Google’s push into high-performance AI processors sent Alphabet’s shares higher, even as Nvidia slipped in early trade. But after Nvidia clarified that its GPUs remain significantly more advanced than Google’s Gemini 3 processors, the Nasdaq rebounded.
Markets are now watching to see whether Alphabet could surpass Nvidia in market capitalisation. Nvidia’s valuation dipped to USD 4.3 trillion after a 2.59% drop, while Alphabet climbed 1.53% to USD 3.9 trillion.
Asian markets opened firmly in the green. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.90%, the Australian index gained 0.75%, South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.70%, and Hong Kong advanced 0.60%. Mainland China saw a slight dip.
Indian equities, however, failed to sustain the day’s early gains on Tuesday. Despite strong upward movement in the morning, the final trading hour saw sharp profit-booking, dragging both Sensex and Nifty into negative territory for the third consecutive session. Broader indices, however, remained positive, with both Midcap and Smallcap indices ending higher.
Among sectors, realty, PSU banks, metals, pharma, and healthcare rose, while IT, consumer durables, oil & gas, media, auto, and financial services declined.
Foreign investors recorded net purchases of ₹785.32 crore in the cash market, while domestic funds bought equities worth ₹3,912.47 crore.
Nifty’s fall from above 26,000 was sharp, but the index managed to hold above the crucial 25,850 support zone, offering some relief to bulls. Support is expected at 25,855 and 25,815, while resistance is likely near 25,995 and 26,035.
consensus “Buy” recommendation. Titagarh Rail Systems received a bullish target of ₹1,047.60, while Aster DM Healthcare was assigned a target of ₹777.44. Five Star Business Finance received a target of ₹744.36.
HDFC AMC turned ex-bonus from today, with eligible shareholders receiving bonus shares in a 1:1 ratio. NCC Limited secured a ₹2,063 crore contract for rebuilding Guwahati Medical College, while Jayant Infratech won a ₹162 crore construction order from Konkan Railway. Indian Overseas Bank will receive ₹835 crore as income-tax refund for FY 2022–23.
In the commodities market, gold traded within the range of USD 4,109–4,159 and closed slightly lower at USD 4,131.90 per ounce. Prices climbed to USD 4,150 this morning. Silver edged up to USD 51.41 per ounce. Platinum stood at USD 1,546, palladium at USD 1,377, and rhodium at USD 7,700.
Base metals moved in mixed directions. Copper climbed 0.75% to USD 10,876 per tonne, while aluminium eased 0.38% to USD 2,800.50. Nickel, tin, and lead rose; zinc declined. Rubber gained 0.76% internationally, while cocoa fell again. Coffee rose modestly, tea remained steady, and palm oil slipped 1.60%.
The US dollar index fell below 100 and closed at 99.66 before bouncing slightly this morning. The euro strengthened to USD 1.1566, the pound to USD 1.3159, while the yen rose to 156.13 per dollar. The Chinese yuan and Swiss franc also firmed. US 10-year bond yields declined to 4.002% as bond prices rose on rate-cut expectations.
The Indian rupee appreciated again, with the dollar closing 1 paise lower at ₹89.22. RBI intervention and a weaker dollar index helped support the currency.
Crude oil prices moved sharply as hopes of a Ukraine peace deal pushed Brent down more than 2%. Brent crude closed at USD 62.64 and edged slightly higher this morning. WTI stood at USD 58.13, while UAE Murban crude was at USD 64.02. Natural gas was priced at USD 4.424.
Cryptocurrencies saw mild gains before turning lower again. Bitcoin traded near USD 87,450, Ether at USD 2,950, and Solana at USD 139.