Commodity markets are likely to remain volatile in the coming week as investors track a busy global economic calendar. The US jobs report on Friday will be the biggest trigger, with weaker employment data potentially reviving expectations of easier Fed policy and supporting commodity prices. China’s manufacturing data, US economic indicators and movements in the dollar and bond yields will also influence market sentiment.
Precious metals could remain under pressure after gold and silver suffered sharp weekly declines following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments on interest rates. Crude oil, meanwhile, faces a tug-of-war between Middle East supply risks and concerns over demand, while natural gas has gained momentum. US oil inventories, natural gas storage data and China’s manufacturing activity will be among the other key factors to watch.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Services PMI and the Fed Beige Book earlier in the week will also provide important clues about US economic strength.
US Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment data
Federal Reserve policy expectations
US dollar movement and bond yields
China’s manufacturing activity
US crude oil inventories
US natural gas storage data
Gold and silver came under heavy selling after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments revived expectations of higher US interest rates. Gold fell more than 3 percent on Friday, while silver also declined sharply.
A stronger dollar and higher yields remain headwinds for precious metals. The upcoming US jobs report will therefore be crucial.
However, geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over US fiscal conditions could provide some downside protection if economic data weaken.
Gold: Neutral to bearish
Silver: Neutral to bearish
Volatility: High
Gold opened the week flat at $4,602.66, exactly matching the previous week’s close. The metal initially moved higher and touched a weekly high of $4,697.07, but failed to sustain the advance as selling emerged near the resistance zone.
Gold subsequently declined to a low of $4,445.55 and closed at $4,453.67, recording a weekly decline of approximately 3.24 percent. The inability to hold early-week gains indicates renewed profit-booking at higher levels.
From a technical perspective, gold is currently trading below the $4,515 level, keeping the near-term structure cautious.
Immediate support: $4,410
Next support: $4,310
First resistance: $4,515
Stronger resistance: $4,630
A move back above $4,515 could bring $4,630 into focus, whereas sustained weakness below $4,410 could increase the possibility of a deeper correction towards $4,310.
The failed breakout above the recent resistance area and the sharp retreat from $4,697 suggest that buyers need to regain control before a fresh upward move can develop.
$4,410 will be the key support to monitor. Holding this level could trigger a recovery towards $4,515, while a break below it would strengthen the bearish case towards $4,310. A sustained close above $4,515 would be the first signal of improving momentum.
Silver opened the week flat at $68.95, matching the previous week’s close. The metal initially strengthened to a weekly high of $71.16, but the recovery failed to hold above the resistance zone.
Selling pressure later pushed silver to a low of $66.12. It closed at $66.33, recording a weekly decline of approximately 3.80 percent.
The retreat after testing the upper levels suggests that sellers remain active in the $69–$71 region.
Immediate support: $65.00
Next support: $61.00
First resistance: $69.00
Major resistance: $73.00
A sustained move above $69.00 could revive buying interest towards $73.00, while a break below $65.00 would weaken the setup and expose the $61.00 region.
Silver enters the new week with a cautious bias following the rejection near $71.00 and the subsequent weekly decline.
$65.00 is the key level to hold. Maintaining this support could allow a recovery attempt towards $69.00, while a decisive break below it could extend the decline towards $61.00.
A sustained close above $69.00 would be needed to shift momentum back towards the bullish side and bring $73.00 into focus.
In the energy segment, Brent crude oil opened the week gap-down by approximately 1.80 percent at $91.90, compared with the previous week’s close of $93.59.
The contract struggled to regain the lost ground, moving between a weekly high of $92.06 and a low of $84.56 before closing at $88.28. Brent therefore recorded a weekly decline of approximately 5.67 percent.
The failure to sustain levels above $92 indicates renewed selling pressure after the recent rebound.
From a technical perspective, Brent has retreated below the $92 resistance level and is now approaching an important support area.
Immediate support: $86.00
Next support: $80.50
First resistance: $92.00
Major resistance: $98.00
Holding $86.00 could allow prices to stabilise and attempt a recovery towards $92.00, while a decisive break below it would expose the $80.50 zone.
Brent enters the coming week with weakened momentum following the sharp weekly decline and rejection from the $92 region.
$86.00 will be the key level to monitor. A sustained hold could encourage a technical rebound towards $92.00, whereas a break below $86 would strengthen the downside case towards $80.50.
A recovery above $92 would be required to improve the short-term structure and shift attention towards $98.00.
Natural gas opened the week gap-down by approximately 0.57 percent at $2.7933, compared with the previous week’s close of $2.8093.
Despite the softer opening, prices quickly recovered and gained momentum through the week, reaching a high of $3.0156 before easing to a low of $2.7660.
The contract finally closed at $2.9240, recording a weekly gain of approximately 4.08 percent. The recovery from the weekly low indicates renewed buying interest around the lower support zone.
From a technical perspective, natural gas has strengthened after reclaiming the $2.81 area and is now approaching the $2.98 resistance level.
Immediate support: $2.81
Stronger support: $2.64
First resistance: $2.98
Next resistance: $3.12
A sustained move above $2.98 could extend the recovery towards $3.12, whereas a failure to hold $2.81 would bring the $2.64 support back into focus.
Natural gas enters next week with improving short-term momentum after posting a solid weekly recovery.
The key level is $2.98. A decisive breakout above this zone could strengthen the upside towards $3.12, while rejection could result in consolidation around $2.81–$2.98.
On the downside, $2.81 should act as the immediate trend-support level. A break below it would weaken the current bullish setup.
Gold: Neutral to bearish
Silver: Neutral to bearish
Crude oil: Bullish but volatile
Natural gas: Neutral to bullish
Industrial metals: Neutral to bullish
The US payrolls report, Fed policy expectations, China PMI, oil inventories and natural gas storage will be the major market-moving factors next week.
(Research inputs from: Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com, a SEBI-registered research analyst. Registration No: INH000023843)