Indian commodity markets are likely to remain active this week as traders assess a mix of domestic and global developments. While bullion could continue to attract safe-haven buying amid uncertainty over global monetary policy, energy and industrial commodities are expected to respond to international demand trends, currency movements and geopolitical developments. Agricultural commodities, meanwhile, will remain sensitive to monsoon progress and crop-related updates.
With volatility expected across segments, market participants are likely to focus on economic data releases, central bank commentary and domestic supply conditions before taking fresh positions.
The markets this week are expected to be driven by US inflation expectations, Federal Reserve commentary, crude oil inventory data, and key energy reports from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The latest US ISM Services PMI remained strong while prices paid stayed elevated, suggesting inflationary pressures persist. Traders will closely analyse the FOMC meeting minutes for clues on future rate cuts, as any hawkish tone could strengthen the US dollar and weigh on precious metals.
*FOMC meeting minutes and Federal Reserve commentary
US jobless claims and inflation expectations
Treasury yield movements
API and EIA crude oil inventory data
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and IEA Monthly Report
US natural gas storage report
Weather developments and seasonal cooling demand
Gold and silver are likely to remain volatile, reacting to Fed signals, inflation data and US interest-rate expectations.
Crude oil may find support if US inventories continue to decline, though weaker global demand could cap gains.
Natural gas is expected to remain range-bound, with storage data and weather forecasts driving prices.
Gold opened last week at $4,125.27, compared with the previous close of $4,122.75, a gap-up of 0.06 percent.
The metal found support after recent weakness as softer US economic data, moderating Treasury yields and renewed expectations of policy easing later this year improved safe-haven demand. However, gains remained limited due to a resilient US labour market and a firm dollar.
Support: $4,085, followed by $3,940
Resistance: $4,220 and $4,330
Gold is attempting to stabilise after an extended correction. A recovery candle near support suggests selling pressure is easing, although a confirmed trend reversal is yet to emerge.
Holding above $4,085 could support further gains.
A move above $4,220 may open the way towards $4,330.
Failure to hold current levels could lead to consolidation towards $4,000-3,940.
Silver began last week at $61.01, slightly above the previous close of $60.99, and ended at $62.37, gaining 2.26 percent.
The recovery was supported by bargain buying, stronger manufacturing data from Asia and improving global risk sentiment.
Support: $56.50 and $50.50
Resistance: $64.80 and $71.50
Silver appears to be building a consolidation range after a sharp correction, with downside momentum slowing.
Holding above the $60-61 zone could lead to a move towards $64.80.
Weak momentum may keep prices range-bound.
Key factors to watch include global manufacturing trends, industrial demand, currency movements and investment flows into precious metals.
Brent crude opened last week at $73.90, above the previous close of $73.61, but ended the week at $71.93, down 2.28 percent.
Prices came under pressure as easing geopolitical risks, expectations of stable global supply and concerns over slowing fuel demand triggered profit booking.
Support: $69.85 and $65.20
Resistance: $75.75 and $80.35
Brent remains below key resistance levels, suggesting the market is in a consolidation-to-correction phase.
OPEC+ developments, US inventory data and global demand trends will remain key drivers.
Holding above $69.85 could support a recovery.
A break below this level may expose prices to $65.20.
A move above $75.75 would improve the bullish outlook.
Natural gas opened last week at $3.2761 and settled at $3.2004, down 2.20 percent.
The market struggled to sustain gains as forecasts pointed to adequate storage levels and moderate weather-related demand.
Support: $2.98 and $2.67
Resistance: $3.40 and $3.60
The contract continues to trade within a broad range while attempting to establish a higher base.
US storage data, temperature forecasts and production trends will remain in focus.
Holding above $2.98 could support a move towards $3.40.
A breakout above $3.40 may extend gains to $3.60.
Failure to hold support could drag prices back to $2.67.
Note: Research support for this report was provided by Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com, a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Registration No. INH000023843).