Commodity markets are expected to remain volatile this week as investors track a series of key global economic releases that could influence interest rate expectations, economic growth and overall commodity demand.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on July 2, the week's biggest market-moving event.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP Employment Report for clues on the health of the US economy.
US crude oil inventories, Cushing crude stockpiles and natural gas storage data.
China's Official Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
A stronger-than-expected US jobs report could strengthen the dollar and weigh on gold and silver by reinforcing expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer. Conversely, weaker labour market data may revive hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting precious metals.
Crude oil prices will be guided by inventory trends, geopolitical developments and demand expectations, while natural gas is expected to remain sensitive to storage data and summer weather forecasts.
Overall, commodity markets are likely to trade cautiously, with US and Chinese economic indicators expected to be the primary drivers.
Gold opened the last week at $4,144.68, below the previous close of $4,219.49, and remained under pressure throughout the week as stronger US economic data, resilient consumer spending and firm inflation strengthened expectations of higher interest rates. A stronger dollar and easing safe-haven demand also weighed on prices.
Gold closed the week at $4,088.87, down around 3.10 percent.
Support: $4,024 and $3,886.50
Resistance: $4,164 and $4,274
The weekly chart continues to show lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers remain in control.
Gold is expected to remain sensitive to US inflation data, Federal Reserve policy expectations and movements in the dollar. Holding above $4,024 could trigger a recovery towards $4,164, while a break below support may accelerate losses towards $3,886.50.
Silver last week opened at $64.82 against the previous close of $65.75 and remained under sustained selling pressure following strong US economic data, firm inflation and expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy.
The metal settled at $59.14, recording a weekly loss of around 10.05 percent, significantly under-performing gold.
Support: $56.50 and $50.50
Resistance: $64.80 and $71.50
The breakdown below its consolidation range suggests bearish momentum remains dominant, although lower levels could attract value buying.
Silver is expected to remain highly sensitive to the dollar, bond yields and Federal Reserve policy. Holding above $56.50 may encourage a recovery towards $64.80, while a break below support could push prices towards $50.50.
Brent crude began last week at $82.30 against the previous close of $80.37, supported initially by Middle East supply concerns and falling US crude inventories. However, easing geopolitical tensions, profit booking, expectations of adequate global supply and a stronger dollar led to a sharp correction.
Brent ended the week at $73.61.
Support: $69.85 and $62.75
Resistance: $76.55 and $85.00
The sharp fall below previous consolidation levels indicates bearish sentiment, although volatility remains elevated.
If Brent holds above $69.85, bargain buying could lift prices towards $76.55. A sustained break below support may expose the market to further declines towards $62.75. Traders will monitor OPEC developments, US inventory data and global economic indicators.
Natural gas opened last week at $3.32 against the previous close of $3.24, supported by expectations of strong summer electricity demand and easing concerns over storage surpluses.
The commodity closed the week at $3.27 after holding above key support levels.
Support: $2.98 and $2.67
Resistance: $3.40 and $3.60
The market is attempting to establish a stronger trading base after months of erratic movement.
A sustained move above $3.40 could strengthen momentum towards $3.60. Failure to break resistance may keep prices range-bound, with support expected around $2.98. Storage data, weather forecasts, LNG export demand and production trends will remain key drivers.
(Research support for this article was provided by: Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com, a SEBI-registered research analyst. Registration No: INH000023843)