Global commodity markets are entering the week of June 8-12 amid a mix of economic uncertainty, shifting interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions. Investors will closely monitor key inflation data from the US and economic indicators from China for fresh clues on global growth and demand trends.
Precious metals are expected to remain sensitive to movements in the US dollar and bond yields, while energy markets will track crude inventory data, OPEC's latest outlook and developments in the Middle East. With concerns over inflation, growth and supply disruptions continuing to shape sentiment, volatility is likely to remain elevated across commodity markets in the coming week.
Commodity markets are likely to remain volatile in the week as investors track key economic data from the US and China. The spotlight will be on US consumer inflation (CPI) data due on Wednesday and producer inflation (PPI) figures on Thursday. These releases could shape expectations about future interest rate moves and influence the direction of the dollar, bond yields and commodity prices.
Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen the US dollar and put pressure on gold and silver, while softer readings may support bullion. Markets will also watch China's inflation and trade data for clues on global demand. Stronger Chinese data could lend support to industrial commodities and energy markets.
In the energy segment, traders will closely monitor US crude inventory reports from the API and EIA. Another significant decline in stockpiles would indicate firm demand and support oil prices. The monthly OPEC oil market report will also be important for updates on global demand and supply trends. Natural gas prices will largely depend on US storage data. Overall, crude oil retains a constructive outlook, while precious metals remain highly sensitive to movements in the dollar and bond yields.
In the past week, gold came under heavy selling pressure, falling about 4.6 percent to close at 4,328.92 from an opening level of 4,537.87. The sharp decline reflects profit-booking and weakening momentum after several weeks of consolidation.
Technically, immediate support is placed at 4,275, followed by a stronger support zone at 4,098. On the upside, resistance is seen at 4,545 and then at 4,715.
Outlook: Gold begins the new week on a weak note. Holding above 4,275 could trigger a technical rebound towards 4,545. However, a sustained move below support may increase the likelihood of a decline towards 4,098. The broader trend remains corrective unless prices reclaim key resistance levels.
Silver recorded a steeper decline than gold, losing nearly 9.8 percent during the week. The metal opened at 74.98 and ended at 67.89 as persistent selling pressure dominated trading.
Immediate support is seen at 64.10, with the next major support at 58.27. Resistance levels are placed at 75.00 and 80.75.
Outlook: Silver remains under pressure after one of its sharpest weekly declines in recent months. Stability above 64.10 could attract bargain buying and support a recovery towards 75.00. A break below support could expose the metal to further downside towards 58.27.
Brent crude opened the week at 92.58 and closed at 92.79, posting a modest gain of around 1 percent. Prices remained volatile throughout the week as traders balanced demand expectations against supply concerns.
Immediate support is placed at 86.10, while the broader support zone is at 75.75. Resistance levels are seen at 101.35 and 112.70.
Outlook: Brent crude appears to be consolidating after its recent rally. Sustaining above 86.10 may encourage fresh buying and keep the possibility of a move towards 101.35 alive. Failure to hold support could weaken sentiment and trigger a correction. The near-term outlook remains range-bound.
Natural gas opened higher at 3.34 but failed to sustain gains, ending the week at 3.24, down about 1.2 percent. Profit-booking emerged after an early recovery attempt.
Immediate support is located at 2.98, followed by 2.67. Resistance levels are placed at 3.50 and 3.77.
Outlook: Natural gas is attempting to recover from recent lows but buyers have yet to establish firm control. A sustained move above 3.50 could strengthen bullish momentum and open the door for a rise towards 3.77. On the downside, a break below 2.98 may lead to renewed selling pressure.
Courtesy: Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com, a SEBI Registered Research Analyst. Registration No: INH000023843
Disclaimer: Commodity markets are subject to high volatility and risk. Investors should consider their risk appetite and consult qualified financial advisers before making investment decisions. The views expressed are based on technical analysis and market conditions prevailing at the time of writing.