Gold prices in India have surged to an all-time high and are expected to rise further, after remaining range-bound for several weeks. However, in the international market, the metal is yet to breach the record high set in April.
The latest triggers for the uptrend include expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut, likely to begin with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September. In addition, July’s jobs data has revealed weakness in the US labour market, which could weigh on consumer demand and economic growth, prompting the Fed to consider monetary easing.
On Monday, gold in the MCX spot market was priced at ₹99,508 per 10 grams. On Tuesday, the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) reported the price of 999 purity gold at ₹1,00,167 per 10 grams.
Festival demand, inflation and geopolitics add to momentum. Apart from the rate cut expectations, other key drivers include inflationary pressures, a weakening dollar, and continued central bank purchases.
In a major reversal, Citi Bank has upgraded its gold forecast, having earlier predicted a 25 percent fall. The bank now expects the yellow metal to trade in the range of $3,300–$3,600 per troy ounce, compared to its previous projection of $3,100–$3,500.
“US growth and tariff-related inflation concerns are expected to remain elevated in the second half of 2025. Alongside a weaker dollar, these factors are likely to push gold moderately higher, to new all-time highs,” the bank’s analysts said.
In June, the bank had projected that gold prices had peaked and would decline in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. Now, however, Citi sees further upside. Fidelity and Goldman Sachs have also maintained their bullish outlook on gold.
Gold is currently trading at $3,377 in the international market — up just 1 percent over the past month but 41 percent higher over the past 12 months.
In India, the price of 24-carat gold stood at ₹1,00,870 per 10 grams on Tuesday. Since April, domestic gold prices have been in a consolidation phase.
“While short-term corrections may occur due to profit-booking or shifts in macroeconomic indicators, the broader outlook remains firmly bullish. Investors would be wise to adopt a staggered accumulation strategy and use price dips to strengthen holdings for portfolio diversification and long-term wealth preservation,” said an analyst.
Market watchers believe that tariffs proposed by Donald Trump, which could disrupt global trade, may further boost gold demand. A weakening US dollar index — seen as a sign of deteriorating economic conditions — is also expected to influence the price trajectory of gold in the months ahead.