A nationwide sales wave is being promoted under the banner of GST relief. Yet, the atmosphere in Indian markets is far from celebratory. The sudden increase in US H-1B visa fees, making them less accessible, has cast a long shadow. Commerce minister Piyush Goyal, who is in America today, will have to face these concerns directly during trade talks. Markets are opening amid uncertainty, and unless investors show confidence that India can withstand American challenges through its ‘swadeshi’ resilience, the bullish momentum could falter.
Although the US clarified that the higher visa fee applies only once to new applicants and does not affect current holders, the risks remain. While some argue that the burden will ultimately fall on America, the fact remains that young Indians are set to lose out heavily. Indian companies may look at relocating staff to Canada or Mexico as a workaround. Still, for the IT services sector, the week has begun with a serious blow.
The fresh context adds weight to Indo-US trade discussions. Optimism had suggested an agreement could be sealed by November, but agriculture, patents, mandatory data localisation, and objections to genetically modified crops remain sticking points. Washington expects India to shift its stance significantly in these areas.
Even before the revised GST slabs took effect today, share prices of consumer companies had climbed between 5% and 15%. While the direct impact on equities may now be limited, real trends in sales will filter into the market in coming days. With Navaratri beginning today, the government hopes to turn tax cuts into a shopping bonanza. Items previously taxed at 12% have been moved into the 5% bracket, while several products from the 28% slab are now under 18%. The prime minister has argued that with income-tax concessions announced in the budget and GST relief now in play, households have been given savings worth ₹2.5 lakh crore.
But whether these savings translate into spending remains to be seen. FMCG companies have cut prices on soaps, shampoos, and toothpaste, yet demand is still constrained by stagnant incomes and uncertain job prospects. Dairy products too have seen price reductions, but their sales response is awaited. In housing, cement tax cuts have given some relief, but steel prices remain unchanged, limiting benefits for homebuyers. Automobiles are a key test case: entry-level cars have been made 20% to 26% cheaper, after years of falling sales. Maruti and rivals are gambling that this will revive volumes. SUVs and EVs too have seen tax reductions passed directly on to customers.
American markets closed strongly on Friday, with the Dow Jones adding 172.85 points to 46,315.27, the S&P 500 climbing 32.40 points to 6664.36, and the Nasdaq up 160.75 points at 22,631.47. Futures, however, are pointing downwards today. Asian markets are buoyant, with Japan’s Nikkei rising 1.4% to another record, and South Korea and Australia higher. By contrast, Hong Kong and Chinese markets slipped, with the People’s Bank of China keeping rates unchanged.
Europe ended last week in the red, led by declines in shipping and logistics shares. UK gilt yields rose on the back of higher government borrowing.
On Friday, Indian markets closed lower despite hopes pinned on GST relief and trade progress. The Nifty fell 96.55 points to 25,327.05, the Sensex slipped 387.73 points to 82,626.23, and the Bank Nifty lost 268.60 points to 55,458.85. Mid-cap and small-cap indices gained marginally. Broader market breadth was negative on the BSE but positive on the NSE.
Foreign investors bought equities worth ₹390.74 crore in cash markets, while domestic funds bought over ₹2,100 crore. Yet September has so far seen foreign investors withdraw nearly ₹8,000 crore, continuing the 2025 trend of outflows worth ₹1.38 lakh crore. Bulls still hope for a rally, but H-1B concerns could stall momentum. Technically, Nifty has support at 25,295 and 25,210, with resistance near 25,400 and 25,490.
Several IT companies have sought to calm markets, stressing limited exposure to H-1B visas. Mphasis, Persistent Systems, Sasken, Cyient, Coforge, and Firstsource all emphasised that their US revenues are not critically dependent on H-1B. In telecom, Vodafone Idea gained after the government refrained from challenging its arguments in the AGR dues case. The stock has already surged 33% this month. In shipbuilding, Cochin Shipyard and Mazagon Dock signed MoUs with Tamil Nadu for new facilities involving combined investments of ₹30,000 crore and large job creation.
Gold extended its rally, closing Friday at $3,686 an ounce before slipping slightly to $3,689 today. Kerala’s 22-carat sovereign price surged ₹600 on Saturday to ₹82,240. Analysts expect accumulation in coming weeks, with global banks projecting prices to approach $4,000 by late 2026. Silver, platinum, and palladium too have risen sharply this year.
Base metals moved in mixed directions: copper rose, aluminium fell, while tin and nickel climbed. Agricultural commodities such as cocoa, coffee, and tea slid, along with palm oil. Crude oil fell on Friday, with Brent at $66.68, but has since bounced above $67. The rupee closed stronger at 88.09 against the dollar, while the dollar index rose to 97.73.
The confluence of global cues, festive GST cuts, and the US visa shock makes for a complex market outlook. The real impact of consumption will only be revealed in October and November GST collections. Until then, investors must navigate a market oscillating between festive optimism and trade-linked uncertainty.