Indian markets, which staged a strong relief rally yesterday, are expected to open with modest gains today. Uncertainty persists over crude oil and gas supplies. Iran continues its attacks that threaten the economic stability of the UAE, and air traffic in the UAE remained suspended again today. The US says the war will end, but has given no clarity on when or how.
Following gains in US markets overnight, Asian markets are trading higher today. However, US futures are down about 0.25 percent.
In derivatives trading at GIFT City, Gift Nifty closed Monday night at 23,588.50 and slipped to around 23,450 this morning, signalling a slightly positive start for the Nifty.
The US Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision tomorrow night. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank will also announce policy decisions on Thursday, with markets expecting rates to remain unchanged there as well.
Donald Trump said yesterday that he may postpone his planned China visit later this month by about a month due to the war.
India’s exports declined marginally in February, while the trade deficit doubled to $27.10 billion. The Commerce Secretary has warned that exports could fall sharply in March.
India has decided to resume trade deal negotiations with the US only after Washington finalises its new tariff framework. Drafting the new tariff policy could take months.
Wholesale inflation in India rose to an 11-month high of 2.13 percent in February.
US markets ended higher on Monday as concerns over rising oil prices eased somewhat.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 387.94 points (0.83 percent) to close at 46,946.41.
The S&P 500 gained 67.19 points (1.01 percent) to 6,699.38.
The Nasdaq Composite climbed 268.82 points (1.22 percent) to 22,374.18.
US futures are slightly lower this morning. Dow futures are down 111 points (0.23 percent), S&P 500 futures 17 points (0.25 percent), and Nasdaq futures 65 points (0.26 percent).
At the annual developers’ conference of Nvidia, CEO Jensen Huang said sales of the company’s Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems could exceed $1 trillion within two years. Huang also indicated the company expects to maintain the strong growth momentum that has lifted revenue by more than 55 percent over the past 11 quarters.
European markets ended Monday with gains of about 0.50 percent.
Asian markets are mostly higher today. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped about 0.75 percent in early trade, while South Korea’s Kospi jumped nearly three percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.35 percent, and markets in Hong Kong and mainland China opened higher.
Indian markets, which had entered correction territory earlier, staged a strong relief rally on Monday. The Nifty moved in a wide range of about 507 points and the Sensex about 1,866 points before closing with gains of more than one percent. The surge came mainly after 2 pm following volatile morning trade.
However, mid cap and small cap stocks did not participate strongly in the rally. In the broader market, more stocks declined than advanced.
The BSE Sensex rose 938.93 points (1.26 percent) to close at 75,502.85.
The Nifty 50 gained 257.70 points (1.11 percent) to end at 23,408.80.
The Nifty Bank climbed 655.55 points (1.22 percent) to 54,413.40.
The Nifty Midcap 100 fell 146.15 points (0.27 percent) to 54,614.95, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 dropped 84.90 points (0.53 percent) to 15,810.35.
Market breadth remained weak. On the BSE, 1,470 stocks advanced while 2,910 declined. On the NSE, 1,070 rose and 2,206 fell.
Foreign institutional investors continued selling on Monday, with net cash market sales of ₹9,365.52 crore. Domestic institutional investors bought a net ₹12,593.36 crore.
The average basket price of crude oil imported by India rose to $136.56 per barrel. At such levels, oil marketing companies cannot raise domestic fuel prices or export products, which could push them into losses. Citing this risk, HSBC cut the target prices of Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum by more than 25 percent. Shares of these companies fell around five percent on Monday.
Reports also suggested the government may have dropped its plan to privatise IDBI Bank after bids from Canada’s Fairfax Financial and the UAE’s Emirates NBD came below the government’s reserve price. The IDBI Bank stock plunged 17 percent, while Life Insurance Corporation of India, which holds a large stake in the bank, slipped slightly. The development has strengthened the perception that stake sales in public sector banks may not happen anytime soon.
Gold continues to test the $5,000 per ounce level. Prices slipped below that mark briefly over the past two days but recovered by the close. The metal again dipped in early trade today before bouncing back.
Gold closed Monday down $12.50 at $5,007.20 per ounce (31.1 grams) after touching a low of $4,968 earlier. This morning it slipped to around $5,002 before rising to about $5,020. Analysts at UBS expect gold prices to reach $6,200 per ounce by the end of the year.
Silver remained volatile, moving between $76.96 and $81.75 on Monday before closing at $80.70 per ounce. It touched about $81.20 this morning.
Platinum trades near $2,116 per ounce, palladium around $1,589 and rhodium about $11,200.
In Kerala, the price of 22-carat gold fell ₹1,640 per sovereign to ₹1,15,440.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), 24-carat gold closed Monday at ₹1,55,890 per 10 grams, while silver ended at ₹2,56,426 per kg.
Industrial metals moved in different directions on Monday. Copper edged up 0.01 percent to $12,759.50 per tonne, while aluminium fell 1.21 percent to $3,398.47. Tin gained, while nickel, lead and zinc declined.
Natural rubber fell 1.56 percent in international markets on Monday to 195 cents per kg. Synthetic rubber rose 0.05 percent to 15,858.33 yuan per tonne.
Cocoa rose 2.88 percent to $3,392 per tonne. Tea prices remained steady, while coffee gained 2.79 percent. Palm oil is trading around 4,572 Malaysian ringgit per tonne.
Prices of polyethylene, polypropylene and PVC fell by up to three percent. Urea rose 0.25 percent to $601 per tonne.
The US dollar Index fell to 99.71 on Monday before edging up to about 99.96 this morning.
The euro rose to $1.149 and the pound to $1.3302. The Japanese yen strengthened to around 159.20 per dollar, while the Chinese yuan weakened to about 6.96 per dollar.
The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 4.238 percent. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at the meeting that begins today.
The rupee strengthened slightly on Monday as the dollar weakened. The currency closed four paise higher at ₹92.42 per dollar after earlier touching a record low of ₹92.48.
In the offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market, the dollar fell to ₹92.27 before rising to ₹92.30. The Chinese yuan weakened to ₹13.27 and the euro strengthened to about ₹106.00. These movements may influence trading in the domestic currency market today.
Oil prices closed slightly lower on Monday but moved higher again this morning.
Brent Crude rose from about $100.21 to around $102.93 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate is trading near $95.96, while Murban Crude from the UAE is around $106.90.
Cryptocurrencies are also moving higher. Bitcoin rose above $75,000 this morning. Ethereum trades above $2,350, while Solana is above $95.
(March 16, Monday)
Sensex: 75,502.85 (+1.26%)
Nifty 50: 23,408.80 (+1.11%)
Bank Nifty: 54,413.40 (+1.22%)
Midcap 100: 54,614.95 (−0.27%)
Smallcap 100: 15,810.35 (−0.53%)
Dow Jones: 46,946.41 (+0.83%)
S&P 500: 6,699.38 (+1.01%)
Nasdaq: 22,374.18 (+1.22%)
Dollar: ₹92.42 (−₹0.04)
Gold (ounce): $5,007.20 (−$12.50)
Gold (sovereign): ₹1,15,440 (−₹1,640)
Brent crude: $100.21 (−$2.93)