The Indian market on Monday witnessed a surge that mixed expectation with optimism. Even as analysts widely believed that IT firms would deliver only single-digit profit growth for the September quarter, hopes of better-than-expected results lifted the market. Further buoyancy came from banks and NBFCs reporting promising second-quarter business updates, signalling continued expansion. However, if upcoming corporate results fail to meet these optimistic projections, a correction may follow. Foreign institutional investors continued to sell, albeit at a slower pace.
Crude oil prices edged slightly higher, while gold, which briefly touched the $4,000 per ounce mark, retreated thereafter — sparking talk of a potential correction in bullion markets. In the derivatives segment, GIFT Nifty closed at 25,146.50 on Monday night, trading around 25,155 this morning after fluctuating between 25,135 and 25,163. These movements suggest that Indian markets could open slightly weaker today.
Political turmoil in France weighed on European indices as the euro dipped. The crisis deepened after France’s fifth prime minister in two years resigned just 14 hours after assuming office. Sébastien Lecornu stepped down due to a lack of parliamentary support to form a cabinet. It remains unclear whether President Emmanuel Macron will call for fresh elections or appoint a replacement. The 2026 budget is yet to be passed, and any further delay could pressure markets. Should elections occur, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party is expected to make significant gains. Last year’s snap election by Macron has left the French political climate increasingly unstable.
The ongoing US government shutdown entered its second week without resolution, but Wall Street remained largely unaffected. Continued discussions in the Senate after market hours offered some reassurance, though no spending bill was passed. Investors are now watching whether former president Donald Trump will follow through on his threat to lay off government employees. Meanwhile, over one lakh federal employees have already left through the earlier voluntary retirement scheme.
On Monday, US markets closed mixed — the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.14% to 46,694.97, while the S&P 500 gained 0.36% to finish at 6,740.28, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.71% to 22,941.67. The rise was largely attributed to reports that OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, had acquired a 10% stake in chipmaker AMD and signed a deal to purchase its GPUs, propelling AMD shares up by over 23%. Futures trading today suggests mild declines, with Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures each down around 0.16–0.18%.
Asian markets traded mixed this morning. Japan’s Nikkei, which surged 4.75% yesterday, continued its upward run, climbing another 1% to surpass the 48,000 mark. Investors expect the appointment of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s new prime minister next Monday to be positive for markets. Hong Kong and Chinese markets remained closed for holidays, while Australia’s main index slipped.
The Indian market rallied for a third consecutive session, with the Nifty crossing 25,000 and the Sensex closing above 81,750. Gains were led by IT, banking, financial, healthcare, and Reliance stocks. Encouraging second-quarter performance estimates from banks and financial firms boosted sentiment, while IT stocks rebounded as fears of weak results faded. The government’s move to revise healthcare rates for central employees lifted Fortis and Max Healthcare shares by around 7%. Capital market-linked stocks also advanced, with BSE rising 6%. However, broader markets remained subdued as metal, media, and FMCG stocks declined.
Nifty gained 183.40 points (0.72%) to close at 25,077.65, while Sensex climbed 582.95 points (0.72%) to 81,790.12. Bank Nifty rose 0.93% to 56,104.85, Midcap 100 gained 0.89% to 58,015.10, and Smallcap 100 inched up 0.28% to 17,928.05. Market breadth favoured declines, with 2,506 stocks falling against 1,780 gainers on the BSE.
Foreign investors sold ₹313.77 crore in equities, while domestic funds bought ₹5,036.39 crore worth of shares. Although Nifty’s breach of 25,000 lifted investor sentiment, sustained foreign selling and upcoming IPOs could exert short-term pressure. Support levels for Nifty lie near 24,930 and 24,880, with resistance seen around 25,100 and 25,155.
LTI Mindtree signed a multi-year deal with a global media and entertainment firm to revamp its digital infrastructure — the company’s largest contract to date. Brigade Enterprises secured a ₹1,000-crore deal to develop a 6.6-acre property in Chennai. Reliance Jio continued to dominate India’s telecom market, adding 1.95 million new subscribers in August, while Airtel gained 0.49 million and Vodafone Idea lost 0.31 million users.
Dilip Buildcon’s subsidiary bagged a 100-MW solar project contract from Madhya Pradesh Jal Nigam. HCL Technologies entered into a research partnership with MIT Media Lab to advance AI and quantum computing. Metropolis Healthcare reported 23% revenue growth in Q2, while ICICI Securities recommended a ‘buy’ on Kalyan Jewellers, maintaining a target price of ₹670 despite a 38% decline this year.
Gold prices nearly hit $4,000 an ounce before retreating, prompting speculation that the metal may be entering a correction phase. In New York, gold closed at $3,961.20, rising 2%, before slipping below $3,960 in early Asian trade. In Kerala, 22-carat gold surged ₹1,000 on Monday to ₹88,560 per sovereign, with expectations it may touch ₹90,000 soon. Silver closed at $48.56 per ounce and is projected to reach $50 soon.
Analysts suggest that after a 130% rally since 2022, a correction of around 12% is possible, potentially pulling gold down to $3,525 per ounce. Industrial metals continued their upward trend, with copper closing at $10,608.85 per tonne, aluminium at $2,724.09, and tin at $36,724. Nickel and lead declined, while zinc gained.
Despite the ongoing government impasse, the dollar index climbed to 98.11 on Monday and touched 98.20 early today. The euro slipped to $1.1699, the pound to $1.3474, and the yen weakened to 150.46 per dollar amid expectations of looser fiscal policy in Japan. US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.158%.
The Indian rupee ended slightly weaker at 88.78 per dollar after mild volatility, while China’s yuan remained steady at 7.12 per dollar.
Brent crude rose 1.5% to close at $65.47 per barrel, inching up to $65.63 this morning. WTI traded at $61.82, and Murban crude at $66.93. Natural gas prices gained 0.6%.
Cryptocurrencies extended their weekend rally, fuelled by prolonged US fiscal uncertainty. Bitcoin climbed back to $125,000, while Ether traded at $4,700 and Solana at $234.