Markets

Market winds favour the bulls as trade deal with US nears; dollar weakens

Positive global cues, easing US tariffs, and signs of political stability boost investor sentiment; Indian markets eye fresh highs as gold continues its climb.

TC Mathew

The market mood has clearly shifted in favour of the bulls. Early signs from global and domestic developments suggest that optimism is returning to the trading floor. Exit polls from Bihar predict a strong win for the NDA, while US President Donald Trump announced that Washington is likely to cut the heavy import duties imposed on India and finalise a trade deal soon. With the US government shutdown expected to end shortly, investor confidence is rising across markets.

On Tuesday night, Nifty futures closed at 25,977.00 and climbed to 26,020 in early Wednesday trade before easing slightly. Analysts say these cues point to a strong opening for the Indian market.

Global markets

European markets continued their upward run as relief spread over the likely resolution of the US government shutdown. Reports that the United States will reduce tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%, aligning them with EU levels, lifted shares of Swiss companies.

Ongoing ministerial talks between Switzerland and the US added to the optimism. Vodafone shares jumped 8.3% after reporting a 7.3% rise in first-half revenue.

In the US, easing concerns over the government shutdown lifted non-tech stocks, while selling persisted in technology counters. Heavyweights like Nvidia and AMD slipped as investors reassessed the profitability of the artificial intelligence (AI) sector.

CoreWeave’s decision to lower its revenue forecast dragged its stock down by 16%, while SoftBank’s announcement that it had sold its entire Nvidia holding led to a 3% dip in Nvidia’s share price.

Michael Burry, the well-known short seller, remarked that some AI companies were spreading exaggerated profit expectations to justify their valuations — a statement that unsettled traders. Although AMD’s CEO Lisa Su projected 35% growth, its shares fell 2.65% before rebounding 4.58% in after-hours trade.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 559.33 points (1.18%) to 47,927.96 — setting a new record. The S&P 500 rose 0.21% to 6,846.61, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.25% to 23,468.30. Futures trading early Wednesday showed modest gains across all three indices.

Asian markets showed a mixed trend. Shares of Japan’s SoftBank fell 10% after it confirmed the sale of its entire Nvidia stake. Japan’s Nikkei index dipped 0.26% but later recovered. South Korea’s Kospi posted marginal gains, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.55% and China’s main index slipped 0.15%.

Indian market

After a shaky start on Tuesday, Indian markets regained momentum in the second half of the session. Foreign investors, who had begun the day selling, turned net buyers by afternoon. Comments from Trump that the US would halve or even further reduce tariffs on Indian goods lifted sentiment.

The Sensex closed 335.97 points higher at 83,871.32, and the Nifty rose 120.60 points (0.47%) to 25,694.95 — closing above the 25,600 mark after several sessions. Bank Nifty gained 0.35% to 58,138.15. The BSE Midcap Index climbed 0.50%, while the Small Cap Index slipped 0.21%.

Foreign institutional investors sold shares worth ₹803.22 crore, while domestic funds purchased ₹2,188.47 crore. Analysts believe the market remains on an upward track, with bulls eyeing a breakout beyond 25,800 on the Nifty. Support levels are seen at 25,645 and 25,585, while resistance may appear near 25,725 and 25,785.

Corporate results

Companies announcing results today include Ashok Leyland, Asian Paints, Campus Activewear, Cochin Shipyard, Data Patterns, GNFC, HAL, Honasa Consumer, Indraprastha Gas, IRCON, IRFC, Jyothy Labs, Lemon Tree, Nazara Tech, Prestige Estates, Shalimar Paints, Tata Steel, and Welspun Living.

Among those that reported results, Tata Power’s second-quarter revenue and net profit both slipped marginally by around 1%. RVNL’s profit fell nearly 20% despite a 5.5% revenue increase. Torrent Power’s profit jumped 50.5% on a 9.8% rise in income. PI Industries and Godrej Industries both posted weaker numbers, while Gujarat Fluorochemicals reported a 47.9% surge in profit despite modest revenue growth.

Adani Enterprises announced details of its ₹25,000-crore rights issue, pricing the shares at ₹1,800 — a 24% discount to market price. Shareholders on record as of November 17 will be eligible.

Gold update

Although the US government shutdown is expected to end soon, gold prices are holding steady amid lingering uncertainty over economic data and employment trends. The University of Michigan’s report showing weaker consumer confidence lifted gold to $4,149.90 per ounce before profit booking trimmed gains. It settled at $4,127.90, up $11 from the previous close.

In Asian trade, gold hovered between $4,146 and $4,134 per ounce. In Kerala, 22-carat gold prices rose ₹1,800 in the morning to ₹92,600 per sovereign before easing to ₹92,280 later in the day.

Silver’s spot price stood at $51.26 per ounce, with platinum at $1,586, palladium at $1,432, and rhodium at $7,925.

Metals

Base metals traded in mixed directions. Copper fell 0.21% to $10,777 per tonne, while aluminium gained 0.17% to $2,874.50. Rubber prices increased 0.77% to 170.40 cents per kg. Cocoa dropped over 5%, while coffee rose 1.85% and tea declined 1.73%. Palm oil rose 0.68%.

Dollar weakens; crude gains

The US dollar index fluctuated between 99.29 and 99.74 before closing at 99.44. It edged higher to 99.54 early Wednesday. The euro strengthened to $1.1584, the pound to $1.315, and the yen appreciated to 154.09 per dollar.

India’s rupee closed 13 paise higher at 88.57 against the dollar, supported by RBI intervention. Crude oil prices rose amid fresh sanctions on Russian firms, tightening global supply. Brent crude ended Tuesday at $65.09 a barrel, slightly easing to $64.96 in early trade. WTI traded at $60.88, while natural gas jumped 5% to $4.54.

Digital currencies continued to fluctuate. Bitcoin traded just above $103,100, Ethereum hovered near $3,440, and Solana slipped to $155.

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