Global markets opened cautiously on Monday with all eyes on the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting mid-week. Investors expect a rate cut on Wednesday, but the Fed’s guidance on growth and inflation will be decisive for market direction.
In Asia, markets showed little enthusiasm. US futures were weak, hinting at a soft start. Analysts warned that last week’s rally in stocks linked to GST cut expectations has already cooled, with profit-taking likely to drag markets lower. Progress in India-US trade talks will remain a key factor to watch in the coming days.
Crude oil prices edged higher on worries about Russian supply disruptions and India’s renewed buying interest in West Asian markets. The August trade figures of India, due later today, are expected to show a narrower deficit—Union Bank of India projects the gap at $26.1 billion, down from $27.4 billion. On August 27, the US had imposed tariffs of 50%.
Wholesale inflation in India eased to 0.45% in August from 0.58% in July, with food inflation rising to 0.21% but fuel costs dropping 3.84%. Core inflation slipped further to 3.53%.
Gift Nifty futures closed at 25,211.50 on Friday night but dropped to 25,165 in early trade today, signalling a weak start for Indian markets.
India and the US announced a resumption of trade negotiations, though no date has been set. Reports suggest a delegation led by Rajesh Aggarwal of the Commerce Ministry will travel this week. Meanwhile, Washington is pressuring the EU and NATO members to impose 100% tariffs on China and India, with little sign of compliance. US Ambassador-designate Sergio Gorham has also urged India to stop buying Russian crude.
Media reports suggest India may consider limited liberalisation in dairy and farm imports. While milk and milk powder are unlikely to be allowed, premium cheese varieties may be considered. India imported $11 million worth of cheese last year, mainly from Lithuania, Estonia, the UK and Italy, taxed at 30–40%. Imports of US maize for ethanol production are also being discussed, but New Delhi has no plans to approve genetically modified maize for food or feed.
European markets ended Friday flat. The UK economy showed zero growth in July, raising expectations of a Bank of England rate cut this week. The German and UK indices slipped slightly, while France posted minor gains.
On Wall Street, indices closed in different directions on Friday. The Nasdaq rose on tech stocks, led by Tesla’s 7.36% surge. For the week, all three key indices posted gains, with Nasdaq ending at another record high. Dow Jones lost 0.59% to 45,834.22, S&P 500 slipped 0.05% to 6584.29, while Nasdaq gained 0.45% to 22,141.07.
Indian equities extended their rally for the eighth straight day on Friday, closing above 25,000 for the second session in a row. PSU, defence and metal stocks fuelled the gains, supported by the Defence Ministry’s 15-year modernisation plan. Defence stocks soared, with Garden Reach up 10%, MTAR 9.26%, BEML 7.99%, Astra Microwave 7.01%, Cochin Shipyard 6.37% and Paras Defence 6.22%.
The Nifty rose 108.50 points (0.43%) to 25,114, while Sensex gained 355.97 points (0.44%) to 81,904.70. Bank Nifty climbed 0.26% to 54,809.30. Mid-cap and small-cap indices also advanced. FII inflows stood at ₹129.58 crore, while domestic funds bought shares worth ₹1,556.02 crore.
Nifty now faces resistance at 25,250–25,550, while support levels are seen around 24,800–24,900. Immediate support lies at 25,000–25,055, with hurdles at 25,135–25,200.
Tata Technologies acquired Germany’s S-Tec Group for €75 million, boosting revenue growth prospects by 8%. Shares, listed at ₹500 in its IPO, currently trade at ₹702.85. Independent director Anil Kumar Choudhary resigned from KRBL Ltd, citing poor governance. Shakti Pumps secured a ₹374 crore order from Maharashtra State Electricity Board for 34,720 water pumps.
Gold inched up despite profit-taking. Spot prices rose $8.20 to $3643.90 an ounce on Friday but slipped to $3632 early today. Kerala’s sovereign gold price jumped ₹560 to ₹81,600 on Friday before easing ₹80 to ₹81,520 on Saturday. Silver climbed to $42.25 an ounce. Industrial metals rallied, with copper crossing $10,000 per tonne, aluminium gaining 1.77%, while tin slipped. Cocoa prices fell 1.51%, while coffee and tea rose 3.14% and 2.39% respectively.
The dollar index moved between 97.49 and 97.86, closing at 97.55. Euro weakened to $1.1733, pound to $1.3556, while yen slid to 147.66 per dollar. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.068%. The rupee ended stronger at 88.27 per dollar.
Crude prices rallied over 1% on Friday as Russian exports faced disruptions. Brent rose to $67.30, WTI traded at $63.04 and Murban at $71.14. Natural gas gained 1.25%.
Cryptocurrencies extended their gains. Bitcoin rose to $115,300, Ether to $4,625 and Solana to $240.