Markets are holding on to cautious optimism over a possible end to the West Asia conflict. US equities surged to fresh records overnight, while Asian markets are trading higher this morning. Crude oil has edged up to around $95 a barrel. The dollar index has softened, while gold is attempting a rebound. Indian markets are expected to open with modest gains.
Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict are intensifying. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held talks with Saudi Crown Prince in Riyadh, while Pak army chief Asim Munir engaged with Iranian leadership in Tehran. Indications suggest US–Iran talks could resume later this week or early next week, focusing on nuclear issues, the Hormuz blockade, and Iran-backed militant groups.
Gift Nifty closed at 24,346.50 on Wednesday night, briefly rising to 24,376 before slipping to 24,298 this morning, संकेतिंग a mildly positive start for Nifty.
India's wholesale inflation accelerated to 3.88 percent in March from 2.13 percent in February, marking a 38-month high. This comes even as retail inflation rose only to 3.4 percent.
Fuel and power prices increased 4.13 percent, led by higher crude, LPG and LNG prices
Primary articles (excluding food) rose 2.28 percent
Manufactured product prices edged up 0.88 percent
Exports to West Asia plunged 58 percent in March due to the conflict. However, growth in other regions limited the overall export decline to 7.44 percent.
March merchandise exports: $38.92 billion
Imports: $59.59 billion (down 6.51 percent)
Trade deficit narrowed to $20.67 billion
For FY 2025–26:
Total exports (goods + services) rose 4.22 percent to $860.09 billion
Imports increased 6.47 percent to $979.39 billion
Trade deficit stood at $119.30 billion
Goods exports were largely flat at $441.78 billion, while services exports grew 7.9 percent to $418.30 billion.
India’s claim of becoming the world’s fourth-largest economy has not materialised. According to the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook:
India’s 2025 GDP: $3.916 trillion (rank: 6)
Japan: $4.435 trillion (rank: 4)
UK: $4.003 trillion (rank: 5)
For 2026, India’s GDP is projected at $4.153 trillion, still trailing Japan and the UK. A weaker rupee against the dollar has impacted rankings.
Renewed hopes of US–Iran talks lifted US markets again.
Dow Jones fell marginally by 72.27 points (0.15 percent) to 48,463.72
S&P 500 gained 55.57 points (0.80 percent) to 7,022.95 (record close)
Nasdaq surged 376.93 points (1.60 percent) to 24,016.02 (record close)
Nasdaq has now risen for 11 consecutive sessions, while S&P 500 has advanced in 10 of the last 11 sessions.
US futures are also trading higher this morning.
Indian stocks listed in the US closed higher:
HDFC Bank ADR rose 1.31 percent, with further gains in after-hours
ICICI Bank ADR edged up 0.60 percent
Infosys ADR climbed 2.65 percent
Wipro ADR advanced 2.71 percent
European markets closed mixed amid uncertainty over peace negotiations.
Asian markets are broadly higher today:
Japan’s Nikkei up 1.7 percent
South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.2 percent
Hong Kong and चीन markets rose over 1 percent
Australia’s index pared early gains
Indian equities recovered strongly, recouping recent losses as optimism over de-escalation improved sentiment.
Foreign investors turned marginal net buyers, purchasing ₹666.15 crore in cash market
Domestic investors sold ₹568.98 crore
Benchmark indices:
Sensex jumped 1,263.67 points (1.64 percent) to 78,111.24
Nifty rose 388.65 points (1.63 percent) to 24,231.30
Bank Nifty gained 1.25 percent
Broader markets outperformed:
Mid cap 100 up 2.20 percent
Small cap 100 up 2.35 percent
Market breadth remained strong, with a majority of stocks advancing.
Gold saw sharp volatility amid mixed signals on the conflict.
International gold fell $49.90 to close at $4,792 per ounce on Wednesday
Prices rebounded this morning towards $4,800+
In Kerala, 22-carat gold rose ₹1,040 to ₹1,13,920 per sovereign.
Silver edged higher, while platinum, palladium and rhodium held firm.
Industrial metals continued their upward trend:
Copper rose 0.46 percent to $13,154 per tonne
Aluminium gained 1.29 percent to $3,620.25 per tonne
Nickel, tin, lead and zinc also moved higher.
Rubber remained flat in global markets
Cocoa fell 2.28 percent
Coffee edged up 0.10 percent
Palm oil rose 0.13 percent
Fertilisers and polymers showed mixed trends.
The US dollar index slipped to 98.06 and further to 97.98 this morning.
Euro strengthened to $1.1804
Pound rose to $1.3567
Yen appreciated to 158.74 per dollar
Yuan strengthened to 6.82 per dollar
US 10-year bond yield rose to 4.276 percent.
The rupee failed to hold early gains and closed at 93.37 per dollar, down marginally.
Volatility in crude oil prices continues to weigh on the currency. In the NDF market, the rupee moved between 93.15 and 93.35.
Crude oil remains largely unchanged amid uncertainty over ceasefire durability.
Brent crude: around $95
WTI crude: $91.33
Murban crude: $100.85
India’s crude basket price eased to $116.26 last week from $120.28.
Cryptocurrencies recovered after yesterday’s dip:
Bitcoin above $74,650
Ether above $2,350
Solana above $85
Sensex: 78,111.24 (+1.64%)
Nifty 50: 24,231.30 (+1.63%)
Bank Nifty: 56,301.95 (+1.25%)
Midcap 100: 58,777.75 (+2.20%)
Smallcap 100: 17,156.40 (+2.35%)
Dow Jones: 48,463.72 (-0.15%)
S&P 500: 7,022.95 (+0.80%)
Nasdaq: 24,016.02 (+1.60%)
Dollar: ₹93.37 (-₹0.01)
Gold (oz): $4,792.00 (-$49.90)
Gold (sovereign): ₹1,13,920 (+₹1,040)
Brent crude: $94.73 (-$0.14)