The much-anticipated trade talks between the United States and India will take place in Delhi today. Signals suggest that President Donald Trump is keen to move things forward quickly, although the concessions expected from India remain unclear.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on the US Federal Reserve, which is set to announce its interest rate decision tomorrow night. With inflation steadily climbing, the key question is how much of a rate cut the Fed will deliver.
There are also indications of a tentative understanding in the ongoing US–China trade dispute. Reports suggest that a settlement has been reached regarding TikTok. Further clarity is expected after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping speak on Friday.
On Monday, US markets closed on a positive note, while Asian markets opened higher this morning, creating a supportive backdrop for Indian equities. Progress in trade discussions is expected to be the central driver.
In the derivatives market, GIFT Nifty closed at 25,167.00 on Friday night and slipped slightly to 25,155 this morning. This points to a relatively steady opening for Indian equities.
European markets also closed modestly higher on Monday, buoyed by optimism around US–China trade talks. The French CAC gained 1%, though the UK’s FTSE ended marginally lower. Trump and his wife Melania arrived in London today, staying at Windsor Castle as guests of King Charles. The US President will meet the British Prime Minister on Thursday, while the Bank of England’s rate decision is also scheduled for the same day.
In the US, all major indices ended Monday in the green. The S&P 500 closed above 6,600, setting a record, while the Nasdaq also ended at a record high. Optimism around TikTok negotiations and upcoming talks between Trump and Xi Jinping lifted investor sentiment.
Tesla surged 3% after CEO Elon Musk revealed he had purchased $100 billion worth of company stock, pushing Tesla’s gains to 85% since April. Alphabet (Google’s parent company) soared 4%, crossing the $3 trillion market cap mark, becoming the fourth company to do so after Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple.
In contrast, Nvidia slipped 1.5% after China accused it of violating antitrust rules. Meanwhile, reports surfaced that Netflix may attempt to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, although no official offer has been disclosed.
The Dow Jones gained 49.23 points (0.11%) to close at 45,883.45. The S&P 500 rose 30.99 points (0.47%) to end at 6,615.28, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 207.65 points (0.94%) to 22,348.75.
Futures trading this morning showed mild weakness, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all edging lower by less than 0.1%.
After eight consecutive days of gains, Indian equities slipped into the red on Monday. Uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s rate decision and global trade negotiations weighed on sentiment. Despite the dip, the Nifty managed to close above 25,000, offering some reassurance.
The Realty index outperformed, cushioning the broader market from deeper losses, while public sector banks and oil companies also gained. However, IT, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, and auto stocks dragged down indices.
The Nifty shed 44.80 points (0.18%) to settle at 25,069.20. The Sensex fell 118.96 points (0.15%) to 81,785.74. Bank Nifty gained 78.55 points (0.14%) to 54,887.85. The Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 rose 0.44% and 0.76%, respectively.
Market breadth favoured gainers, with 2,209 stocks rising on the BSE compared to 2,008 losers. Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth ₹1,268.59 crore, while domestic funds bought shares worth ₹1,933.33 crore.
Technically, Nifty faces resistance in the 25,150–25,450 range, with support at 25,050 and 24,995.
India’s exports fell in August compared to July but were higher year-on-year due to a low base effect from last August. Exports stood at $351 billion, while imports were $615.9 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $264.9 billion. This was narrower than both July and August last year.
Gold imports declined significantly, contributing to the improvement. However, exports to the US dropped 15.4% in August. With Washington imposing a 50% tariff from August 27, further declines in September exports appear likely.
Gold surged as markets awaited the Fed’s decision, supported by a weaker dollar. Spot gold rose to $3,684 an ounce before closing at $3,681.50, up $37.60. Futures hit $3,721.10 before ending at $3,719. Silver also gained, rising to $42.65 an ounce.
In Kerala, the price of 22-carat sovereign gold dipped by ₹80 on Monday to ₹81,440, but prices are expected to rise sharply today.
Among industrial metals, aluminium, zinc, and nickel gained, though copper dipped 0.19%.
The US dollar index fluctuated between 97.27 and 97.70 on Monday, ending at 97.30. This morning it traded slightly higher at 97.36. The euro rose to $1.1765, the pound to $1.3601, and the yen strengthened to 147.35 per dollar.
Brent crude oil climbed to $67.66 a barrel, while WTI stood at $63.48 and Murban crude at $71.16. Natural gas prices slipped 1%.
Cryptocurrencies remained elevated. Bitcoin touched $115,400, while Ethereum fell to $4,525. Solana declined to $234.