Indian equities are set for a crucial week, with investors hoping for a relief rally even as rising crude oil prices, a stronger dollar and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on sentiment.
Markets are broadly pricing in a 25-basis-point increase in the Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate on Wednesday. Gift Nifty traded around 22,672 in early deals, indicating a firm opening for domestic equities.
RBI policy decision on Wednesday
TCS second-quarter results on Thursday
Brent crude above $100 a barrel
Dollar index near 102
Continued foreign investor selling
Escalating tensions in West Asia and the Russia-Ukraine war
The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee begins its meeting on Monday, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra scheduled to announce the policy decision at 10 am on Wednesday.
Markets expect the repo rate to be raised from 5.25% to 5.50%, a 25-basis-point increase. Retail inflation stood at 4.82% in the latest month, strengthening expectations of tighter monetary policy. If rates are raised, it would be the first hike since Malhotra took charge as RBI Governor.
Geopolitical tensions continue to cloud the market outlook.
Concerns are growing that the West Asia conflict could widen, while Saudi Arabia is reportedly stepping up preparations against the Houthis in Yemen. The Russia-Ukraine war has also intensified.
The geopolitical uncertainty has pushed crude oil prices higher, adding to inflation and currency concerns for India.
US equities ended sharply higher on Friday after weaker-than-expected employment data reduced fears of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike.
The US economy added just 29,000 non-farm jobs in September against expectations of 84,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
Friday’s close:
Dow Jones: 51,176.96, up 0.49%
S&P 500: 7,722.72, up 0.73%
Nasdaq: 27,190.86, up 1.19%
Nvidia also touched a record high of $237.88 during the session.
Asian equities were largely positive in early trade.
Nikkei: +2.70%
Taiwan: +2.55%
Kospi: +0.50%
Australia: +0.45%
Hang Seng: -0.45%
Shanghai Composite: +0.30%
Indian equities fell sharply on Thursday as crude oil crossed $100 a barrel and interest-rate concerns intensified.
The Sensex fell as much as 1,300 points from the day’s high before recovering part of the losses. The Nifty also dropped nearly 400 points from its intraday peak. BSE-listed companies lost around ₹20 lakh crore in market capitalisation.
Most major sectors ended lower, with auto, metals, media, realty, consumer durables and FMCG among the worst hit.
Benchmark close
Sensex: 71,909.70, down 0.79%
Nifty 50: 22,421.95, down 0.88%
Bank Nifty: 54,450.75, down 0.33%
Midcap 100: 58,732.00, down 1.01%
Smallcap 100: 19,058.65, down 0.97%
Foreign portfolio investors remained aggressive sellers.
FPI net selling on Thursday: ₹9,484.22 crore
Domestic institutional buying: ₹10,041.84 crore
FPI outflow in September: ₹46,009 crore
Total foreign equity selling in 2026 so far: around ₹2.6 lakh crore
HDFC Bank named ICICI Prudential Life Insurance chief Anup Bagchi as its new CEO and MD. Bagchi will take charge on October 27 and becomes the first outsider to be appointed to HDFC Bank’s top executive role.
Gold prices remained choppy amid shifting interest-rate expectations.
Friday close: $4,141.80 an ounce
Early trade: around $4,160
Keralam 22-carat gold: around ₹1,09,400 per sovereign
Silver was quoted at $61.80 an ounce.
The US dollar index closed at 101.93 on Friday and moved above 102 in early trade.
The rupee remained under pressure amid higher crude oil prices and a stronger dollar. The dollar closed at ₹96.32 on Thursday, up 49 paise.
Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel.
Friday close: $102.36
Early trade: around $101.66
WTI crude: $90.26
Elevated crude prices remain a major concern for India because of their impact on inflation, the rupee and the current account.
Industrial metals remained weak.
Copper: $14,353.85 a tonne
Aluminium: $3,122 a tonne
Cocoa surged 5.37% to $5,670 a tonne amid concerns over lower production in Ivory Coast and Ghana in the 2026-27 season.
Major cryptocurrencies moved higher.
Bitcoin: above $86,700
Ether: above $2,725
Solana: above $121
(October 1, Thursday)
Sensex: 71,909.70 | -0.79%
Nifty 50: 22,421.95 | -0.88%
Bank Nifty: 54,450.75 | -0.33%
Dollar: ₹96.32 | +₹0.49
Gold: $4,178.50/oz
Gold in KERALAM: ₹1,09,440/sovereign
Brent crude: $102.31
October 2
Dow Jones: 51,176.96 | +0.49%
S&P 500: 7,722.72 | +0.73%
Nasdaq: 27,190.86 | +1.19%
Gold: $4,141.80/oz
Brent crude: $102.36