Confidence remains strong that the market rally will continue. The surge in Asian equities and the rise in US futures are providing favourable cues for global investors. In Washington, India–US trade discussions are ongoing, with Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal set to lead the negotiations today. Reports suggest that the talks are inching closer to a mutual understanding.
A new twist entered the conversation when US President Donald Trump claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him that India would stop buying Russian crude oil. According to Trump, India had sought some time to phase out these purchases, though the Indian government has not confirmed this statement. Prior to Trump’s remarks, India’s commerce secretary had already indicated that if the US could offer oil at a lower price, India would consider reducing imports from Russia. Following Trump’s declaration, global crude oil prices surged sharply.
Meanwhile, the United States government is entering a period of administrative gridlock, with hints that the shutdown could stretch into November. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that an interest rate cut later this month remains a strong possibility, adding to optimism in the markets.
Tensions over trade policy persist. Although Treasury Secretary Scott Benson stated that the US might reach an understanding with China over tariffs, Trump later contradicted him, asserting that the trade war was far from over. This statement triggered fresh unease across markets. Gold prices, in turn, soared to $4,235 per ounce, with signs that the upward trend could continue.
The dollar index weakened on Wednesday, helping the Indian rupee sustain its rally. With the currency gaining strength, domestic markets are expected to open on a positive note. The GIFT Nifty closed at 25,437.50 on Wednesday night and climbed to 25,470 in early Thursday trade, indicating a strong opening for Indian equities.
India’s foreign trade deficit reached an eleven-month high in September. Merchandise exports grew by 6.75%, while imports surged by 16.67%, widening the trade gap by 93%. There was also a slowdown in the growth of service-sector exports.
Shipments to the United States dropped sharply — from $880 crore in May to $550 crore in September. Excluding iPhone-related exports by Apple, India’s merchandise exports show only nominal growth, revealing the narrow base of its export expansion.
European equities moved in mixed directions on Wednesday. France’s stock market climbed 2% after newly re-appointed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu secured a confidence vote by making policy compromises. In contrast, markets in Germany, the UK, and Italy declined. Luxury majors led the French rally — LVMH rose 12.2% and Christian Dior gained 12%. However, defence stocks saw notable declines.
US markets closed mixed after a day of heavy fluctuations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped slightly, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended in positive territory. The Dow lost 17.15 points (0.04%) to close at 46,253.31. The S&P 500 gained 26.75 points (0.40%) to settle at 6,671.06, and the Nasdaq rose 148.38 points (0.66%) to close at 22,670.08.
Stronger-than-expected earnings from major banks initially lifted the markets. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America both jumped by about 5%. However, Trump’s remarks about renewed tensions with China dampened investor sentiment later in the day.
In futures trading, the momentum remained mildly positive — Dow futures rose 0.08%, S&P 500 futures 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures 0.07%. Across Asia, Japan’s Nikkei advanced 0.82%, South Korea’s benchmark surged 2.7%, Australia’s market rose 1.15%, and Hong Kong’s index moved higher. Only Chinese equities traded in the red.
China, meanwhile, is preparing for the next session of the Communist Party’s Central Committee Plenum next week to finalise the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan. This will be the fourth plenum since the 2022 Party Congress, and seven sessions are typically held during a five-year term. The upcoming meeting will outline the development goals for 2026–2030. While the agenda is not officially related to the trade war, both President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang are expected to address the issue in their speeches, potentially unveiling new growth-acceleration strategies beyond the 5% target.
A combination of supportive global cues and strong domestic growth expectations propelled Indian stocks higher on Wednesday. The Nifty climbed to its highest level in a month, driven by broad-based gains across mid- and small-cap segments. HDFC AMC rose sharply after announcing strong second-quarter results and a 1:1 bonus issue.
The real-estate sector was the standout performer, as investors anticipated that easing inflation could pave the way for lower interest rates and boost housing demand. Public-sector banks rallied amid reports of potential mergers, while rising international metal prices lifted metal stocks. FMCG, consumer durables, and financial stocks also gained, supported by hopes of a decline in inflationary pressure. Defence-related shares advanced as well.
By the close of trade, the Nifty had climbed 178.05 points (0.71%) to 25,323.55. The Sensex gained 575.45 points (0.70%) to end at 82,605.43. The Bank Nifty added 303.45 points (0.54%) to finish at 56,799.90. The Midcap 100 index rose 645.60 points (1.11%) to 58,970.00, while the Smallcap 100 advanced 147.90 points (0.82%) to 18,088.05.
Market breadth was positive — on the BSE, 2,429 stocks advanced against 1,749 declines; on the NSE, 1,979 rose while 1,125 fell. Eighty-seven NSE stocks hit 52-week highs, while 108 touched new lows. Eighty-nine stocks hit the upper circuit and sixty-five fell to the lower.
Foreign institutional investors were net sellers worth ₹68.64 crore in the cash market, whereas domestic funds were net buyers of ₹4,650.08 crore. Analysts believe the Nifty closing above 25,300 could help it advance toward 25,500. However, resistance is expected near the one-year peak of 25,669. Immediate support levels lie at 25,200 and 25,090, while hurdles may appear at 25,365 and 25,490.
Axis Bank’s net profit fell 26% in the second quarter due to provisioning of ₹1,231 crore for agricultural loans, leaving the net profit at ₹5,090 crore. Net interest income increased 1.9%, and net non-performing assets stood at 0.44%.
HDFC Life reported a 3.2% year-on-year rise in net profit, though this was 18% lower than the previous quarter. Net premium income grew 13%.
HDB Financial Services posted a 1.6% fall in net profit despite a 19.7% increase in net interest income, as higher provisioning for bad assets impacted results. Operating profit, however, rose 24.4%.
KEI Industries’ revenue increased 9.4%, while net profit jumped 31.3%. Hero MotoCorp began retail operations in Spain with 36 showrooms, expected to expand to 50 soon. Bharat Electronics received new orders worth ₹592 crore.
Delta Corp, which operates casinos and online gaming businesses, saw operating profit decline 18.5% and net profit drop 7% in the quarter, as revenue growth remained modest.
L&T Finance’s revenue rose 8%, but net profit increased only 6%. Net interest income grew 10.3%. Angel Broking reported a 20% fall in revenue, a 38.2% drop in operating profit, and a 50% plunge in net profit as margins shrank from 44.7% to 38.2%. Oberoi Realty’s revenue grew 34.8%, but profit rose only 29%, with margins narrowing from 61.7% to 57.3%.
The gold market remained highly volatile yet upward-bound. On Wednesday, spot gold repeatedly breached the $4,200 level before closing at $4,209.20, having touched $4,215.50 earlier. In Thursday’s Asian trade, prices climbed further to $4,233.90. The holiday-adjusted price peaked at $4,242.80.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold jumped twice during the day by a total of ₹800 per sovereign, closing at ₹94,920. Silver prices touched $53.30 per ounce before closing at $52.99; early trade showed prices at $53.17. Interestingly, holiday rates in silver have remained slightly below spot prices for several days, a rare case of “backwardation.” Platinum, palladium, and rhodium all continued their ascent, with platinum’s holiday rate peaking at $1,699 before easing slightly.
Base metals resumed their rally. Copper rose 0.96% to $10,701.75 per tonne, aluminium 0.6% to $2,745.56, while lead and nickel gained marginally. Zinc jumped 3.36%, and tin advanced 1.21%.
In commodity markets, international rubber prices rose 0.06% to 170.40 cents per kg. Cocoa declined 0.60% to $5,863.70 per tonne, coffee fell 2.44%, while tea soared 61.2%. Palm-oil prices rose 0.31%.
The Reserve Bank of India’s decisive intervention sent the rupee soaring on Wednesday. The dollar weakened 73 paise to ₹88.07. Just as the market expected the greenback to climb toward ₹89, the RBI stepped in, preventing a psychological breach that might have driven it past ₹90.
Officials observed that speculative trades, not fundamentals, had driven the rupee’s recent weakness. The RBI reportedly took major positions in the forward market, forcing several short-position holders into losses — similar to its actions last February. The global weakening of the dollar helped RBI’s effort further. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan strengthened to 7.13 per dollar.
After falling earlier on trade-war fears, crude prices rebounded following Trump’s statement about India stopping Russian oil purchases. Brent crude, which had closed $0.37 lower at $61.91 on Wednesday, climbed 0.8% in morning trade to $62.45. WTI stood at $58.70, and Murban crude at $64.10. Natural gas rose 0.55%.
Cryptocurrencies extended their decline amid fears of worsening US–China trade tensions. Heavy selling pressure continued as investors rushed to exit positions. After wild swings of $2,700, Bitcoin hovered around $110,700 on Thursday morning. Ether fell to $3,960, and Solana slipped to $193.