Progress has not been visible in the trade agreement talks between India and the United States. There has been no let-up in international tensions either. The Reserve Bank’s monetary policy will be announced on Wednesday, with expectations pointing towards no rate change. Today, the industrial production index for August will be released.
Hopes that the US will cut interest rates this month were strengthened by last week’s inflation and labour data. If this week’s numbers confirm that trend, the Federal Reserve’s move becomes more certain. Meanwhile, unless Republicans and Democrats reach an agreement by Tuesday on passing the US budget, President Donald Trump has threatened to lay off tens of thousands of government employees. Without an agreement, the government will also run out of funds to function, marking the first shutdown since 2019.
With such a backdrop of unsettling news, investors are still hoping for a relief rally after last week’s steep declines. The fall in crude oil prices and the softening of the dollar could provide some comfort. Even so, most analysts believe any early gains are unlikely to be sustained.
European stocks closed higher on Friday. After the US announced 100% import duty on medicines, pharma stocks initially wavered but eventually stabilised. Most European pharmaceutical companies already have plants in the United States.
American indices rose on Friday, though all three benchmarks ended the week in negative territory. A sell-off in technology stocks pushed the Nasdaq down by 0.7% and the S&P 500 by 0.3%. The Dow Jones fell just 0.2%.
The August Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation index came in as expected, helping markets recover. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, showed a 2.9% annual increase. This strengthens the case for a further 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October.
Tesla surged 4% on Friday, while Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet also rebounded. Apple, AMD, and Meta, however, fell. The Dow Jones rose 299.97 points (0.65%) to close at 46,247.29. The S&P 500 climbed 38.98 points (0.59%) to 6,643.70. The Nasdaq Composite gained 99.37 points (0.44%) to end at 22,484.07.
US futures were trading higher today, with Dow up 0.17%, S&P 0.23%, and Nasdaq 0.29%. Asian markets opened mixed—Japan fell 1%, while South Korea and Australia rose 1% each. Hong Kong was up 1%, but China opened lower
Indian markets declined for a sixth straight day on Friday. Both Sensex and Nifty lost 2.7% during the week, while Bank Nifty shed 1.9%.
Lack of progress in trade talks remained the central issue. India has refused to stop buying Russian oil or allow unrestricted farm imports. Talks are ongoing but without clarity. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick commented that India is under pressure, highlighting the state of negotiations.
Nifty dropped 236.15 points (0.95%) to 24,654.70. Sensex fell 733.22 points (0.90%) to 80,426.46. Bank Nifty slipped 586.85 points (1.07%) to 54,389.35. The Midcap 100 crashed 1,177.35 points (2.05%) to 56,378.55, while the Smallcap 100 lost 405.90 points (2.26%) to 17,560.90.
The advance-decline ratio remained weak. On BSE, 945 shares rose while 3,208 fell. On NSE, 627 gained while 2,424 declined. Fifty NSE-listed stocks hit 52-week highs, while 139 touched new lows. Foreign investors sold ₹5,687.58 crore worth of shares in the cash market on Friday, while domestic funds bought ₹5,843.21 crore. Net foreign outflows for the week were ₹8,800 crore, and for the month so far ₹30,141.68 crore.
Technically, Nifty is vulnerable. If the 24,500 support breaks, the next levels are 24,100 and 23,500. On the upside, targets are 25,000–25,200. Today, supports are at 24,620 and 24,570, with resistances at 24,715 and 24,850.
Oil India has discovered natural gas in the Vijayapuram-2 exploration well in the Andamans, though reserves are yet to be quantified. Lemon Tree Hotels announced new leadership, with Patanjali Keswani as executive director and chairman, Neelendra Singh as MD, and Kapil Sharma as ED and CFO.
PG Electroplast has acquired 50 acres at Sri City in Andhra Pradesh for ₹1,000 crore to set up a refrigerator plant with an annual capacity of 12 lakh units. Production is due by December next year. Chambal Fertilisers has been slapped with a GST penalty of ₹527 crore.
Birlasoft reappointed Angan Guha as CEO and MD for two years from December 2025. Tata Motors appointed Shailesh Chandra as CEO and MD, with Dhiman Gupta as CFO, effective from April, as part of splitting its commercial and passenger vehicle divisions. Godrej Agrovet signed an MoU with the food processing ministry for ₹960 crore investment.
Shares of Waaree Engineers fell 7% after the US launched a probe into its solar panel exports, alleging underpricing similar to Chinese dumping.
Gold closed last week slightly lower after some profit-taking. Analysts warn of excessive speculative long positions and an overbought market, but sentiment remains bullish. If the US budget impasse persists, gold prices could rise further. Even if resolved, they are unlikely to fall sharply.
Gold tested resistance at $3,790 before closing at $3,760.70 an ounce on Friday. It rallied to $3,788.70 this morning before easing to $3,775. Holiday trades pushed it briefly to $3,810, closing at $3,789.80. It has since crossed $3,820.
In Kerala, 22-carat sovereigns rose ₹320 on Friday to ₹84,240, then another ₹440 on Saturday to ₹84,680. Prices may climb further, with the record of ₹84,840, set on September 23, within reach.
Silver closed at $45.99 an ounce, having touched $47.35. It has risen 7% in a week and 53% over the past year, now at a 14-year high. Industrial metals dipped Friday after strong gains Thursday. Copper fell 1.81% to $10,125.50 per tonne, zinc dropped 2.56% to $2,935, while aluminium edged up 0.09% to $2,655.83. Nickel, tin, and lead declined.
Rubber slipped 0.17% to 173.10 cents/kg. Cocoa rose 0.17% to $6,936.63 per tonne, coffee jumped 2.02%, tea was flat, and palm oil fell 0.99%.
The dollar index fell 0.40% to 98.15 on Friday, slipping further to 97.98 this morning. Renewed expectations of a rate cut in October drove the decline.
The euro climbed to $1.1722, the pound to $1.3421, and the yen to 149.08 per dollar. Yields on 10-year US treasuries dropped to 4.16%.
The rupee weakened slightly on Friday, closing at 88.72 against the dollar, five paise lower. China’s yuan remained steady at 7.13 per dollar.
Crude prices fell as markets anticipated OPEC’s decision on increasing output in November. Brent dropped 1% to $69.45 before recovering to $69.63. WTI traded at $65.10, and Murban crude at $71.25. Natural gas prices slid 1.4%.
After recent losses, cryptocurrencies traded higher today. Bitcoin, which slipped below $109,000 over the weekend, rose to $111,900 this morning. Ether was at $4,120, and Solana at $210.