A fresh round of US-Iran talks in Qatar, the India Meteorological Department's July monsoon forecast, easing crude oil prices and a rebound in Asian equities are expected to shape market sentiment today. Gold has fallen below the psychologically important $4,000-an-ounce mark again on expectations that the US Federal Reserve may resume interest rate hikes.
GIFT Nifty indicates a mildly positive start for Indian equities after Monday's volatile session.
US and Iran are holding talks in Qatar today as tensions in West Asia remain subdued.
Limited shipping has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz.
The IMD will release its July rainfall forecast, a crucial indicator for agriculture and rural demand.
Gold has slipped below $4,000 an ounce again amid rising expectations of higher US interest rates.
Crude oil prices have eased slightly after recent gains.
GIFT Nifty points to a modestly positive opening for Indian markets.
India's southwest monsoon remained 41.6 percent below normal as of June 29, according to the India Meteorological Department.
Although rainfall improved on Sunday, central and northwestern India continued to receive inadequate showers. Around 74 percent of the country's land area is still experiencing rainfall deficits of more than 20 percent, with key agricultural regions recording deficits ranging between 32 percent and 92 percent.
The IMD's July rainfall forecast, due later today, will be closely watched by markets.
The weak monsoon has already affected kharif sowing. According to the Agriculture Ministry, sowing as of June 25 was 23 percent lower than a year earlier, with only 16.5 percent of the normal cropped area covered compared with 21 percent during the same period last year.
Wall Street rallied on Monday as investors shifted their focus away from last week's concerns over AI, technology and memory chip stocks, while optimism over the temporary ceasefire involving Iran boosted sentiment.
Alphabet's inclusion in the Dow Jones Industrial Average also helped lift the index to a record closing high.
SpaceX shares surged 7.15 percent to $164.19 after recovering from losses suffered during the second week following their market debut.
Monday's close:
Dow Jones gained 306.63 points (0.59 percent) to a record 52,182.74.
S&P 500 advanced 86.41 points (1.18 percent) to 7,440.43.
Nasdaq Composite jumped 522.53 points (2.07 percent) to 25,820.14.
Indian ADRs closed on a mixed note in New York.
HDFC Bank ADR rose during regular trading but ended 0.89 percent lower in after-hours trade at $25.68.
ICICI Bank ADR recovered to close 1.84 percent higher after the regular session.
Infosys ADR edged higher in extended trading after initial losses.
Wipro ADR also recovered partially after a sharp fall during regular trading.
US index futures traded marginally lower this morning.
Dow futures declined 0.08 percent.
S&P 500 futures slipped 0.08 percent.
Nasdaq futures fell 0.10 percent.
European markets closed mostly lower on Monday as concerns over West Asia and higher oil prices weighed on investor sentiment, although the pan-European Stoxx 600 index ended marginally higher.
Asian markets traded higher this morning.
South Korea gained around 0.60 percent.
Japan rose about 0.70 percent.
Hong Kong and Shanghai opened lower before stabilising.
China's factory activity expanded more than expected, supporting investor confidence.
Indian benchmark indices ended lower on Monday after a highly volatile session.
Heavy selling in IT, banking and automobile stocks dragged the market lower, while healthcare, pharmaceuticals and metal shares outperformed.
India also regained its position as the world's fifth-largest equity market by market capitalisation, overtaking Taiwan once again.
India's market capitalisation now stands at about $5.01 trillion, ahead of Taiwan ($4.97 trillion) and South Korea ($4.66 trillion).
Foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers, offloading ₹1,350.10 crore worth of shares, while domestic institutional investors purchased shares worth ₹2,801.45 crore.
Monday's close:
Sensex fell 372.10 points (0.48 percent) to 76,728.37.
Nifty 50 lost 109.75 points (0.47 percent) to 23,946.25.
Bank Nifty declined 449.70 points (0.77 percent) to 57,727.35.
Nifty Midcap 100 dropped 0.37 percent.
Nifty Smallcap 100 fell 0.62 percent.
Market breadth remained weak.
BSE: 1,028 stocks advanced and 2,728 declined.
NSE: 1,318 stocks gained while 2,020 fell.
Rajesh Exports hit another 5 percent lower circuit amid the fake accounts controversy.
HDFC Bank appointed former Chief Election Commissioner and former Finance Secretary Rajiv Kumar as part-time Chairman for a four-year term.
The bank also named former Axis Bank CFO Puneet Sharma as its new Chief Financial Officer. He will assume office in September.
Rajeev Mantri, who resigned from Bandhan Bank, will become CFO of Axis Bank.
Federal Bank touched a record high of ₹327 before closing slightly lower. South Indian Bank and CSB Bank ended higher, while Dhanlaxmi Bank declined.
Analysts remained divided over Persistent Systems' proposed acquisition of German digital engineering company Nagarro. While CLSA, Motilal Oswal and PL Capital reiterated buy recommendations with targets above ₹6,000, Citi, Elara, Equirus and Kotak Securities maintained sell calls with targets below ₹5,000. Nomura retained a neutral stance. The stock plunged 11 percent on Monday.
Gold resumed its decline after briefly recovering above $4,000 an ounce last week.
The metal closed at $4,017.60 on Monday, down $73 or 1.79 percent, before falling to around $3,944 in early trading today. It later recovered modestly to around $3,965.
Markets expect elevated oil prices to keep US inflation under pressure, increasing the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate hike. Higher interest rates generally favour bonds over non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.
In Kerala, the price of 22-carat gold fell ₹1,480 on Monday to ₹1,04,080 per sovereign, with further declines likely today.
Silver also weakened, slipping to around $56.80 an ounce in early trade.
Other precious metals:
Platinum: $1,553
Palladium: $1,189
Rhodium: $7,200
Industrial metals traded mixed on Monday.
Copper rose 0.11 percent to $13,302.25 per tonne.
Aluminium fell 1.56 percent to $3,125.94, with traders expecting prices to move below $3,000.
Zinc and tin gained.
Lead and nickel declined.
Rubber prices fell further in overseas markets.
In Bangkok, RSS-1 rubber was quoted at $281.80 per quintal, while RSS-3 stood at $278.30.
In Kerala, RSS-4 declined to ₹26,800 per quintal.
Cocoa prices fell 2.51 percent to $4,967 per tonne. Arrivals from Ivory Coast have increased by 18 percent, while supplies from Nigeria have also improved. However, traders continue to expect El Niño-related weather disruptions to reduce production in West Africa.
The US Dollar Index closed at 101.11 on Monday before recovering to around 101.24 this morning.
The euro strengthened to $1.1415, while sterling climbed to $1.3244.
The Japanese yen remained near a record low at 162.13 per dollar, reflecting the Bank of Japan's accommodative policy stance. China's yuan strengthened to 6.79 against the dollar.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury eased to 4.374 percent.
The Indian rupee ended 14 paise lower at ₹94.54 against the dollar on Monday.
In the offshore non-deliverable forward market, the dollar traded around ₹94.58 this morning.
Oil prices softened after Monday's gains as concerns over West Asia eased.
Brent crude: $72.49 per barrel.
WTI crude: $70.21 per barrel.
Major cryptocurrencies traded slightly higher.
Bitcoin moved above $59,750.
Ether climbed above $1,590.
Solana traded above $74.
Sensex: 76,728.37 (-0.48%)
Nifty 50: 23,946.25 (-0.46%)
Bank Nifty: 57,727.35 (-0.77%)
Nifty Midcap 100: 61,567.30 (-0.37%)
Nifty Smallcap 100: 18,673.10 (-0.62%)
Dow Jones: 52,182.74 (+0.59%)
S&P 500: 7,440.43 (+1.18%)
Nasdaq Composite: 25,820.14 (+2.07%)
Dollar/₹: ₹94.54 (+₹0.14)
Gold (per ounce): $4,017.60 (-$73.00)
Gold (22-carat, per sovereign): ₹1,04,080 (-₹1,480)
Brent crude: $73.15 (+$1.16)