Indian equities are expected to open slightly higher today, October 12, supported by Friday's rebound and a sharp improvement in the rupee in offshore trading.
The Reserve Bank of India's latest measures to curb currency speculation could provide relief to the rupee, which came under severe pressure last week. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting India's September retail inflation data, with price pressures expected to intensify. Global markets remain mixed as crude oil holds above $100 a barrel, geopolitical tensions persist and gold prices continue to climb.
The absence of a clear direction in global markets is keeping investors cautious. Wall Street ended last week on a positive note, supported by expectations of strong third-quarter corporate earnings. Asian markets, however, are showing a mixed trend amid concerns over elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical developments.
Gift Nifty, which closed at 22,575.50 on Friday night, climbed to 22,660 in early trading today before easing slightly. The movement indicates a modestly positive opening for Indian equities.
India's retail inflation figures for September will be released this evening. Economists and research agencies expect inflation to range between 5.4% and 5.8%, compared with 4.82% in August. Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, is estimated at 4.3%.
The anticipated increase in inflation has strengthened expectations that the Reserve Bank of India could raise interest rates again when its monetary policy committee meets in early December.
The US retail inflation report, scheduled for Wednesday, will also attract considerable attention. Inflation is projected to increase from 3.4% in August to 3.7% in September.
Despite the expected rise, many market participants believe the US Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting later this month. However, another rate increase is being anticipated at its December meeting.
The RBI announced significant measures over the weekend to support the rupee, which had slipped close to its record low against the US dollar last week.
The measures are expected to trigger a sharp appreciation in the domestic currency today. Some market estimates suggest that the dollar could fall to ₹95.50.
However, whether the recovery can be sustained remains uncertain. Persistently high crude oil prices and continued foreign investor outflows could put renewed pressure on the rupee.
One of the RBI's measures involves directly supplying dollars to public sector oil marketing companies to meet their foreign exchange requirements.
The central bank has also reduced the limit for non-trade-related dollar-rupee derivative transactions from $100 million to $5 million. Another provision requires a 20% reserve to be maintained against foreign exchange derivative sales.
The effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen.
India's foreign exchange reserves declined by $52 billion over four weeks, according to figures available a week ago. The sharp depletion underlines the pressure on the currency.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have also continued withdrawing substantial amounts from Indian equities.
Their cumulative net sales in 2026 have reached ₹3.04 lakh crore. During the first six trading sessions of October alone, foreign investors withdrew ₹44,166 crore.
If the outflows continue at this pace, the RBI's intervention may provide only temporary relief. Last week, the rupee came close to its record closing low of ₹96.96 against the dollar, recorded on May 20.
Following substantial dollar sales by the RBI, the currency recovered slightly on Friday, with the dollar closing at ₹96.73.
Geopolitical tensions in West Asia and Ukraine remain elevated, although developments involving the US and Russia have generated hopes of diplomatic progress.
US President Donald Trump's representatives have been engaging with Russia, while discussions between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have attracted attention in global energy markets. The two leaders reportedly agreed during a telephone conversation on arrangements for the US to purchase Russian diesel. Restrictions on Russian diesel sales were consequently suspended for six months.
The move is seen as part of Trump's efforts to reduce diesel prices ahead of the November 3 elections and ease concerns among American consumers.
Germany is also expected to release additional diesel from its strategic reserves following pressure from the US. These developments contributed to a modest decline in crude oil prices early today.
Diplomatic discussions over a possible settlement of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are continuing. Fresh Russian conditions for a ceasefire are expected to be discussed in the coming days.
Meanwhile, tensions in West Asia remain serious. Houthi forces reportedly carried out major attacks on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on two consecutive days, causing significant damage and disrupting air traffic. Saudi Arabia has threatened retaliation. Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt have expressed support for the kingdom.
Pakistan has military personnel and fighter aircraft stationed in Saudi Arabia, although they have not participated in the attacks. Iran has warned against Pakistani military involvement.
Trump has indicated that Saudi Arabia is capable of responding to the Houthis without outside intervention.
Indirect negotiations between Iran and the US have reportedly failed. Increased attacks around the Strait of Hormuz have further complicated diplomatic efforts.
Shipping traffic through the strategic waterway has fallen sharply, although crude oil prices have remained below $105 a barrel as supplies continue moving through alternative routes.
US equities ended Friday with strong gains, helping all three major indices register weekly advances. The American stock market's bull run has now completed four years, and investors expect the upward momentum to continue into the October-December quarter.
Research firm FactSet expects companies in the S&P 500 index to report earnings growth of 29.6% for the third quarter. If realised, this would mark the fourth consecutive quarter in which companies in the index have recorded profit growth exceeding 25%.
The strong earnings outlook has helped investors look beyond concerns about higher interest rates.
Friday's closing levels were:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,654.95, up 423.31 points or 0.83%.
S&P 500: 7,811.54, up 46.18 points or 0.59%.
Nasdaq Composite: 27,366.17, up 172.83 points or 0.64%.
US stock futures were trading with modest gains this morning, suggesting another positive session.
Dow Jones futures: Up 130 points or 0.25%.
S&P 500 futures: Up 21 points or 0.26%.
Nasdaq futures: Up 146 points or 0.47%.
Indian companies listed through American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) recorded a generally positive performance on Friday.
HDFC Bank: Gained 1.23% during regular trading and remained unchanged in after-hours trading at $22.28.
ICICI Bank: Rose 0.04% during the regular session and added 0.11% in extended trading to close at $27.92.
Infosys: Advanced 0.28% during regular trading and gained another 0.18% in after-hours trading, closing at $10.75.
Wipro: Climbed 1.80% during regular trading and remained unchanged in extended trading at $1.70.
European stock markets posted gains averaging around 1% on Friday. Heavy industrial companies, including Thyssenkrupp and ArcelorMittal, recorded gains of nearly 7%.
However, telecommunications companies Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone declined.
The weakness followed concerns about increased competition after Elon Musk's SpaceX acquired spectrum in Europe.
Asian markets showed a mixed trend in early trading today. South Korea's benchmark index declined 2.65%, while Taiwan's market fell 0.50%. Japan's Nikkei remained closed for a holiday.
Other regional markets recorded gains.
Australia: Up 0.50%.
Hong Kong Hang Seng: Up 0.90%.
Shanghai Composite: Up 0.06%.
Indian equities staged a strong recovery on Friday, with almost every sector except oil ending in positive territory.
The gains helped the market close higher after eight consecutive weeks of losses. Information technology stocks led the rally, supported by Tata Consultancy Services' quarterly results.
Market breadth was positive, with advancing stocks outnumbering declining stocks on both major exchanges. On the BSE, 2,492 shares advanced while 1,895 declined. On the NSE, 2,182 stocks gained and 1,391 ended lower.
Foreign institutional investor selling moderated slightly, although domestic institutions continued to provide strong buying support.
FPIs recorded net sales of ₹3,568.90 crore in the cash market on Friday.
Domestic institutional investors, including mutual funds, made net purchases worth ₹4,743.26 crore. Foreign investors have withdrawn ₹44,166 crore, or approximately $4.58 billion, from Indian equities during the first six trading sessions of October.
Their total net withdrawals since January have exceeded ₹3.04 lakh crore, compared with ₹1.66 lakh crore for the whole of 2025.
Friday's closing figures were:
Sensex: 72,472.33, up 879.09 points or 1.23%.
Nifty 50: 22,520.45, up 288.65 points or 1.30%.
Bank Nifty: 55,256.65, up 741.60 points or 1.36%.
Nifty Midcap 100: 58,787.30, up 904.80 points or 1.56%.
Nifty Smallcap 100: 19,153.70, up 103.60 points or 0.54%.
Gold prices continued their upward movement after gaining nearly 1.5% on Friday.
The international price is approaching an important resistance zone between $4,200 and $4,300 an ounce.
Analysts believe a sustained breakout above this range could trigger another sharp rally.
The annual conference of the London Bullion Market Association projected that gold could reach $5,000 an ounce within a year.
International gold closed Friday at $4,195.60 an ounce, up $61.10 or 1.48%.
The metal climbed to $4,218 in early trading today before retreating slightly.
In Kerala, the price of 22-carat gold rose to ₹1,11,040 per sovereign on Saturday. A sovereign is equivalent to eight grams.
Today's domestic gold prices could be influenced by movements in the rupee.
Silver also recorded strong gains. International silver prices rose 3% on Friday to close at $60.95 an ounce. The metal advanced to $61.50 in early trading today.
Other precious metals were quoted at:
Platinum: $1,696 an ounce.
Palladium: $1,143 an ounce.
Rhodium: $8,325 an ounce.
Natural rubber prices advanced in both international and domestic markets. In Bangkok, RSS-1 rubber rose to $294.35 per quintal on Friday, while RSS-3 reached $290.90 per quintal.
In Kerala, RSS-4 rubber climbed to ₹28,350 per quintal on Saturday. The rise offers some relief to rubber growers, although the sustainability of the gains will depend on international demand and supply conditions.
Most industrial metals ended Friday higher, supported by buying interest. Copper advanced 1.12% to $14,688.65 a tonne. Aluminium edged up 0.04% to $3,069.85 a tonne. Zinc, lead and nickel also gained, while tin declined.
Cocoa prices recorded a modest increase, closing at $5,665 a tonne. Arabica coffee fell 0.73% to $2.870 a pound. Palm oil declined 1.48% to 4,592 Malaysian ringgit a tonne.
The US dollar index closed higher at 102.21 on Friday before slipping to 102.14 in early trading today. Major currencies traded at the following levels:
Euro: $1.1211.
British pound: $1.3247.
Japanese yen: 158.15 against the US dollar.
Chinese yuan: 6.69 against the US dollar.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond rose to 5.242% this morning.
The rupee recovered slightly on Friday following aggressive intervention by the RBI. The dollar declined by five paise to close at ₹96.73.
Following the central bank's latest measures to curb speculative currency transactions, the rupee strengthened sharply in offshore forward trading.
The dollar was quoted at around ₹95.60 early today, having briefly fallen to ₹95.50.
Other exchange rates were:
Chinese yuan: ₹14.44.
Euro: ₹108.35.
Crude oil prices remained relatively steady this morning after trading above $104 a barrel on Friday.
Brent crude, which closed at $104.78 on Friday, slipped to $103.46 in early trading today.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was quoted at $90.49 a barrel.
Oil prices remain vulnerable to developments in West Asia, particularly disruptions to shipping routes and uncertainty surrounding supplies.
Major cryptocurrencies extended their recovery in early trading today.
Bitcoin: Above $83,375.
Ether: Above $2,530.
Solana: Above $110.50.
(Friday, October 9)
Sensex: 72,472.33 | Up 1.23%
Nifty 50: 22,520.45 | Up 1.30%
Bank Nifty: 55,256.65 | Up 1.36%
Nifty Midcap 100: 58,787.30 | Up 1.56%
Nifty Smallcap 100: 19,153.70 | Up 0.54%
Dow Jones: 51,654.95 | Up 0.83%
S&P 500: 7,811.54 | Up 0.59%
Nasdaq Composite: 27,366.17 | Up 0.64%
US dollar: ₹96.73 | Down ₹0.05
Gold (international): $4,195.60 an ounce | Up $61.10
Gold (Kerala, 22-carat): ₹1,10,520 per sovereign | Up ₹840 on Friday
Gold (Kerala, Saturday): ₹1,11,040 per sovereign | Up ₹520
Brent crude: $104.72 a barrel | Up $0.44