Western and Asian markets are trending higher, yet Indian equities continue to struggle. The core concerns remain the sharp depreciation of the rupee and the uncertainty surrounding the Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision expected on Friday.
Market participants fear that the dollar may open above ₹90 today unless the Reserve Bank intervenes heavily. Many believe that once the dollar crosses the 90 mark, the slide could intensify. There is also a view that the central bank may be intentionally allowing the rupee to weaken in order to support exporters who are already under pressure from tariff shocks. IT, pharma and other export-linked sectors stand to gain from a weaker currency.
Talks between the United States and Russia regarding Ukraine have seen some progress, though no breakthrough is visible yet.
In GIFT City derivatives trade, Nifty futures closed at 26,190.00 on Tuesday night. It briefly moved up to 26,212 this morning before softening again, indicating another weak start for Indian markets.
European indices moved in different directions. Germany’s benchmark gained momentum while the UK and French markets edged lower. Bayer surged 12% after the Trump administration indicated that it would act to limit lawsuits in the United States over the weedkiller Roundup—claims that have already cost Bayer billions.
Market focus remains on Moscow, where US President’s special envoy Steve Witkoff is meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a new 19-point peace framework for Ukraine.
The US markets closed moderately higher. Cryptocurrencies saw a sharp rebound, helping restore some investor confidence. Though it is too early to declare the crypto crash over, inflows into crypto ETFs have resumed.
Expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut at the 10th-of-month meeting have climbed to 87.2%. Technology stocks continued to benefit from strong revenue and profit growth in artificial-intelligence-linked companies. Credo Technology reported robust growth, lifting its shares by 10%.
Nervousness persists, however, ahead of US private-sector employment data and the still-uncertain outcome of Ukraine negotiations.
The Dow rose 185.13 points (0.39%) to 47,474.46. The S&P 500 gained 16.74 points (0.25%) and the Nasdaq climbed 137.75 points (0.59%). Futures were higher this morning across all three indices.
Asian equities extended gains. Japan’s Nikkei climbed 0.75%, Australia rose 0.30% and South Korea’s Kospi added 1.10%. Hong Kong slipped 0.40% and Chinese indices edged down 0.05%.
Indian markets remained under pressure. The rupee’s fall, the worrying signals behind the headline GDP growth data, the absence of progress on the India–US trade deal, lower-than-expected tax collections and persistent foreign investor selling have all weighed on sentiment.
President Putin’s visit later this week has added geopolitical complexity. Expectations of renewed defence deals—potentially involving the Su-57 fighter jet and S-400 missile defence system—could trouble US-India relations and further delay the trade agreement. Markets are also watching whether Putin will offer India an attractive oil deal.
Nifty and Sensex both opened lower yesterday and continued falling until the final minutes, when Nifty managed to claw its way back above 26,000. Foreign investors sold ₹3,642.30 crore, while domestic funds bought ₹4,645.94 crore.
All major sectors except pharma ended in the red, with weaknesses in capital markets, defence, tourism, financial services, metals, private banks and consumer durables.
Sensex closed 503.63 points lower (0.59%) at 85,138.27. Nifty slipped 143.55 points (0.55%) to 26,032.20. Bank Nifty fell 407.55 points (0.68%) to 59,273.80.
The market has now declined for three straight sessions. Support for Nifty lies at 26,000 and 25,900 today, with resistance at 26,120 and 26,220.
Meesho’s IPO opens today with a grey-market premium of around 47%. Institutional investors have already committed ₹2,439 crore at ₹111 per share. The issue comprises ₹4,250 crore worth of fresh shares and an offer for sale of ₹1,171 crore. Despite rapid growth in online commerce, Meesho remains loss-making.
Indian Hotels Company has acquired a new 90-room Ginger-brand hotel in Shillong, taking its total there to three.
Indigrid Infrastructure Trust will acquire Gadag Transmission for ₹372 crore, strengthening its position as India’s first major infrastructure investment trust.
India Cements has agreed to sell its Indonesian unit for ₹5.4 crore.
The government has clarified that no proposal is under consideration to raise foreign investment limits in public sector banks.
In a major relief for Sun Pharma’s research arm, a US court ruled that the FDA was wrong to deny approval for its drug Cesabi, sending Spark’s shares soaring 20%.
Gold and silver prices continued their wild swings. Gold fell from USD 4,237 to USD 4,165 before climbing back to USD 4,207.40. It touched USD 4,222 this morning. Silver dropped to USD 56.52 before recovering to USD 58.57; holiday-session prices are now at USD 59.19.
Platinum traded at USD 1,640, palladium at USD 1,448 and rhodium at USD 7,750.
Copper slipped 0.12% to close at USD 11,285 per tonne. Aluminium fell 0.53%, while nickel, lead, zinc and tin moved higher. Rubber fell sharply by 4.50%, while cocoa gained 1%. Coffee prices dropped 2.12%, tea remained unchanged and palm oil gained 1.64%.
The dollar index closed at 99.36 and dropped further to 99.23 this morning. The euro strengthened to USD 1.1635 and the pound to USD 1.3222. The yen eased to 155.67 per dollar. The yuan stayed at 7.07 and the Swiss franc traded at 0.8025.
US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield slipping to 4.077%.
The rupee weakened further on Tuesday. The RBI intervened only lightly, allowing the dollar to touch ₹89.95 before settling at ₹89.88. Market chatter suggests some trades may have taken place at ₹90.
The absence of an India–US trade deal is expected to widen both the trade and current-account deficits. Capital outflows have also intensified, and with both the trade and capital accounts under pressure, the rupee remains vulnerable. Only large foreign inflows or a signed trade agreement appear capable of stabilising the currency.
China’s yuan strengthened to around ₹12.72.
Crude oil prices fell despite continuing uncertainty around Ukraine negotiations. Brent closed at USD 62.45 and hovered around USD 62.43 this morning. WTI traded at USD 58.56 and Murban at USD 64.18. Natural gas eased to USD 4.86.
Cryptocurrencies saw a sharp turnaround. Many coins that were down more than 10% regained 8–10%. Bitcoin rose 8% to above USD 92,250, Ether climbed 9% to USD 3,000 and Solana surged 12% to above USD 139.