The market atmosphere continues to deteriorate, weighed down by a mix of factors ranging from company earnings and the US-India trade negotiations to geopolitical tension and speculations about the US Federal Reserve chair. Most Asian markets and US futures opened lower today, while foreign investors turned net sellers on Friday, casting a shadow over Indian equities. Adding to the pressure, crude oil prices have risen above $70 per barrel.
US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements have stirred concern, with fresh levies of 30% imposed on the European Union and Mexico. Trump has threatened to extend a 10% tariff to all countries without a trade agreement with the US—potentially increasing it to 15–20% for non-compliant nations.
In another major development, Trump has reportedly intensified efforts to remove US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, accusing the Fed of irregularities in infrastructure spending. Rumours of Powell’s imminent resignation, despite his tenure lasting until May next year, have been actively circulated by Trump’s close aides.
Company earnings are expected to dominate the domestic market this week. Inflation data is also due today.
In derivatives trading, GIFT Nifty closed at 25,237 on Friday night, later slipping to 25,164 this morning before showing a slight recovery. Analysts interpret this as an early sign of a weaker start to today’s trading session.
European indices closed with steep losses on Friday. The announcement of high tariffs on Canada has raised fears that the EU may face similar treatment. Most indices fell by nearly 1%.
US indices, which had hit record highs earlier, ended Friday in the red. Speculation over the Fed chair’s exit weighed more heavily on sentiment than the ongoing trade tensions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 279.13 points (0.63%) to close at 44,371.51. The S&P 500 dipped by 20.71 points (0.33%) to end at 6,259.75. The Nasdaq Composite lost 45.14 points (0.22%) and settled at 20,585.53.
US futures also pointed lower today, with the Dow down 0.47%, the S&P 500 falling 0.48%, and Nasdaq losing 0.49%.
The market is closely eyeing results from major US banks this week, including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo.
Most Asian markets are also trading lower today. Japan’s Nikkei index slipped 0.50%, while South Korea’s market gained 0.20%. Both the Hong Kong and Chinese markets opened in the red.
The Indian market ended Friday on a weak note after TCS results indicated that Q1 earnings may underperform expectations. The Nifty fell 205.40 points (0.81%) to close at 25,149.85, while the Sensex dropped 689.81 points (0.83%) to finish at 82,500.47. Bank Nifty lost 201.30 points (0.35%) to end at 56,754.70. The Midcap 100 index fell by 517.75 points (0.88%) to 58,642.20, and the Smallcap 100 declined by 192.80 points (1.02%) to 18,763.45.
Only FMCG and pharmaceuticals bucked the trend. Hindustan Unilever rose 5% following the announcement of a new CEO. Glenmark Pharma surged 20% after its US subsidiary announced a partnership to develop and market a compound that could treat multiple myeloma, a type of blood cancer.
IT, auto, realty, and oil & gas stocks led the losses, while defensive stocks fell due to profit booking.
The broader market saw more declines than gains. On the BSE, 1,503 stocks advanced while 2,516 declined. On the NSE, 1,029 rose and 1,891 declined. On the NSE, 55 stocks hit 52-week highs, while 23 reached new lows. As many as 77 stocks hit upper circuits, and 40 touched lower circuits.
Foreign investors sold ₹5,104.22 crore worth of shares on Friday in the cash market, while domestic funds bought shares worth ₹3,558.63 crore. So far this month, FIIs have been net sellers to the tune of ₹10,284.18 crore.
Technical analysts indicate that Nifty’s drop below 25,100 suggests a possible fall towards the 24,800–24,700 range if FII selling continues. The index may find support at 25,085 and 25,005, while facing resistance at 25,270 and 25,390.
This week, market attention will also be on June’s inflation and foreign trade data, along with Q1 company results.
Retail inflation is expected to come in below 2.8%, down from 2.82% in May—the lowest in six years. Union Bank of India estimates it at 2.30%, largely due to falling food and vegetable prices. The decline, however, has been modest compared to previous months.
Wholesale inflation may see a marginal uptick in June. Union Bank projects WPI inflation at 0.80%, up from 0.39% in May. Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) may rise from 0.86% to 1.63%.
India’s trade deficit may shrink marginally—from $21.9 billion in May to $20.7 billion in June—due to a decline in crude oil and gold imports. Daily crude imports fell from 4.72 million barrels to 4.66 million barrels. Gold imports dropped from 34.87 tonnes to 30.56 tonnes, despite a 5% rise in prices.
July 14: HCL Technologies
July 15: HDFC Life, ICICI Lombard
July 16: Tech Mahindra, L&T Technology Services
July 17: Wipro, Mindtree, Indian Hotels, Axis Bank, HDFC AMC, Jio Financial Services, Tata Communications
July 18: Reliance Industries, JSW Steel
Gold prices continued their upward climb amid fears of a prolonged tariff war. On Friday, it jumped 1.25% to cross $3,356 per ounce. It rose a further 0.5% early this morning before settling slightly lower at $3,365. The trend reflects investors shifting to gold as a safe-haven asset. Cryptocurrencies are also rising for similar reasons.
In Kerala, gold prices rose ₹440 on Friday to ₹72,600 per sovereign and jumped another ₹520 on Saturday to ₹73,120. Prices are expected to rise further.
Silver also moved higher, touching $38.42 per ounce.
On the London Metal Exchange, industrial metals fell on Friday due to concerns that trade wars may dampen global demand. Copper dropped 1.17% to $9,637.40 per tonne. Aluminium fell 0.27% to $2,602.85. Nickel, lead, tin, and zinc also declined.
In global commodities, rubber rose 2.21% to 166.30 cents per kg. Cocoa tumbled 8.60% to $7,990.30 per tonne, coffee declined 0.41%, while tea rose 0.58%. Palm oil prices edged up by 0.68%.
The US Dollar Index rose slightly on Friday to close at 97.85, climbing to 97.90 in early trade today. In currency markets, the Euro fell to $1.167, and the Pound slipped to $1.349. The Japanese yen weakened to 147.33 per dollar.
Yields on US 10-year treasury bonds rose to 4.417%, while bond prices saw marginal declines.
The Indian rupee fell significantly on Friday after initial fluctuations, ending 17 paise weaker at ₹85.80 against the dollar. China’s yuan held steady at 7.18 per dollar.