Markets

US-Iran talks make little progress; oil price stays above $102; gold near $4,300

Rate hike fears weigh on markets; expectations of further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank have also increased.

TC Mathew

Renewed concerns over higher interest rates are weighing on global markets. Wall Street ended sharply lower on Wednesday, while most Asian markets, barring Japan, were in the red in early trade on Thursday.

Expectations of another US Federal Reserve rate hike have strengthened after fresh data showed US business activity expanding at its fastest pace in more than five years. Expectations of further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India have also increased amid elevated crude oil prices and inflation risks.

Key cues for Indian markets

  • GIFT Nifty slipped to around 23,240 in early trade.

  • Brent crude remained above $102 a barrel.

  • US 10-year Treasury yield stayed above 5.1%.

  • Gold recovered slightly to around $4,300 an ounce.

  • Most Asian markets traded lower.

  • Wall Street ended Wednesday with losses of up to 1.13%.

In GIFT City derivatives trading, GIFT Nifty closed Wednesday at 23,307.50 and slipped to around 23,240 in early trade on Thursday, indicating a weak opening for the Indian market.

US-Iran talks make little progress

Diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran conflict have yet to produce a breakthrough. Iran and the United States remain far apart on key issues following indirect talks held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran would not surrender to US pressure, while also reiterating that Iran remained open to diplomacy.

What matters for markets

  • No major breakthrough emerged from the latest US-Iran talks.

  • Mediators are continuing diplomatic efforts.

  • Oil prices rebounded sharply as hopes of an immediate settlement faded.

  • Brent crude moved back above $103 on Wednesday before easing on Thursday morning.

Brent settled $3.83, or 3.86%, higher at $103.08 a barrel on Wednesday. WTI also moved higher.

Trump-Xi talks in focus

Attention is now shifting to talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Xi arrived in Washington on Wednesday and is scheduled to hold discussions with Trump on Thursday.

Key issues on the table

  • US-China tariffs

  • Technology restrictions

  • Agricultural purchases

  • Trade arrangements

  • Extension of the existing trade truce

The US and China have extended their existing trade truce by two months. The arrangement, which had been due to expire on November 10, will now run until January 10.

Another issue being watched closely by India and China is the new US sanctions legislation targeting Russia.

The law gives the US President powers to impose tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian oil and gas and on countries facilitating sanctions evasion. It does not, however, automatically impose a 100% tariff on India or China.

Rate fears drag Wall Street lower

Wall Street fell on Wednesday as rising crude prices, strong US economic activity and surging bond yields revived concerns over further monetary tightening.

Fresh business activity data indicated that the US economy remains resilient despite higher borrowing costs.

This strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again.

US market close

  • Dow Jones: 51,511.59, down 352.10 points or 0.68%

  • S&P 500: 7,706.03, down 58.61 points or 0.75%

  • Nasdaq Composite: 26,936.04, down 308.24 points or 1.13%

The US 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5.1%, reaching its highest level since 2007.

Higher borrowing costs are particularly significant for companies making large investments in artificial intelligence, infrastructure and other capital-intensive sectors.

US stock futures remained slightly weak in early trade.

  • Dow futures: down around 63 points

  • S&P 500 futures: marginally lower

  • Nasdaq futures: marginally lower

Indian ADRs mixed

Indian American Depositary Receipts traded mixed in New York.

  • HDFC Bank fell 2.65% during regular trade before recovering in extended trading to $22.97.

  • ICICI Bank declined 0.46% and ended near $27.91.

  • Infosys slipped 0.09% during the regular session before recovering to $10.85 in extended trade.

  • Wipro ended unchanged at $1.69.

European markets decline

European equity markets closed lower on Wednesday. Energy stocks gained as crude oil prices rose. Automobile stocks weakened. Financial stocks also came under pressure.

Asian markets mostly lower

Most Asian markets traded in the red on Thursday as rising bond yields and renewed inflation concerns weighed on sentiment.

Early Asian trade

  • Japan Nikkei: up around 1.75%

  • Hong Kong Hang Seng: down around 0.75%

  • Taiwan: down around 0.50%

  • Shanghai: down around 0.35%

  • Australia: down around 1.2%

  • South Korea: market closed for a holiday

Japan outperformed after reopening following holidays.

Indian market advanced on Wednesday

Indian equities ended higher on Wednesday, supported by softer crude prices during domestic trading hours and upgrades to India's economic growth outlook.

Several global institutions have raised their FY27 growth forecasts for India after the economy expanded 7.8% in the June quarter.

India growth forecasts

  • S&P Global Ratings: raised forecast to 7% from 6.6%

  • Fitch Ratings: raised forecast to 6.9% from 6.4%

  • Moody's: raised forecast to 7% from 6%

  • Asian Development Bank: raised forecast to 7% from 6.6%

  • OECD: raised forecast to 7.1% from 6.3%

Sector performance

Metal shares gained as prices of steel, copper and aluminium remained elevated.

Realty, FMCG, pharma, healthcare and capital-market stocks also advanced.

IT shares were among the laggards.

Market breadth

  • BSE: 2,752 stocks advanced; 1,655 declined

  • NSE: 2,324 stocks advanced; 1,224 declined

Institutional flows

Foreign institutional investors turned net buyers on Wednesday.

  • FII net buying: ₹1,617.45 crore

  • DII net buying: ₹2,341.46 crore

Indian indices

  • Sensex: 74,828.25, up 299.17 points or 0.40%

  • Nifty 50: 23,446.80, up 117.80 points or 0.50%

  • Bank Nifty: 56,548.90, up 333.35 points or 0.59%

  • Nifty Midcap 100: 62,396.45, up 0.70%

  • Nifty Smallcap 100: 19,991.50, up 0.89%

NSE's stock market debut

The National Stock Exchange of India is scheduled to make its stock market debut on Thursday.

Key IPO numbers

  • IPO size: ₹22,569 crore

  • Upper price: ₹1,785 per share

  • Implied valuation: around ₹4.42 lakh crore

  • Issue structure: entirely an offer for sale

At the upper end of the price band, NSE's market capitalisation will place it close to some of India's largest listed companies.

Foreign brokerage Macquarie has assigned an outperform rating with a target price of ₹1,965.

Gold pressured by rate outlook

Gold fell sharply on Wednesday as rising US Treasury yields and expectations of further interest rate hikes reduced the appeal of the non-yielding metal.

Precious metals

  • Gold: down $71, or 1.63%, to $4,288 an ounce on Wednesday

  • Early Thursday gold: around $4,300

  • Silver: down around 4% to $64.58 an ounce

  • Platinum: around $1,756

  • Palladium: around $1,249

  • Rhodium: around $8,900

Kerala gold

22-carat gold fell ₹280 per sovereign on Wednesday to ₹1,13,080.

Rubber prices rise

Natural rubber prices continued to strengthen in both international and Kerala markets.

Rubber prices

  • Bangkok RSS-1: $283.46 per 100 kg

  • Bangkok RSS-3: $280 per 100 kg

  • Kerala RSS-4: ₹27,500 per 100 kg

Industrial metals decline

Industrial metals traded lower on Wednesday as profit-booking and rate concerns weighed on sentiment.

  • Copper: down 0.42% to $14,733.85 a tonne

  • Aluminium: down 0.14% to $3,259.20 a tonne

  • Lead: lower

  • Zinc: lower

  • Nickel: higher

  • Tin: higher

Cocoa and coffee gain

Agricultural commodities showed mixed trends.

  • Cocoa: up 2.17% to $5,519 a tonne

  • Arabica coffee: up 1.32% to $2.759 a pound

  • Palm oil: down 0.87% to 4,768 Malaysian ringgit a tonne

Dry weather in parts of Ivory Coast raised concerns over cocoa production.

Currency market

The US dollar strengthened as expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening increased.

Dollar Index: around 101.10

  • Euro: around $1.14

  • Japanese yen: around 157.91 per dollar

  • Chinese yuan: around 6.71 per dollar

The US 10-year Treasury yield remained around 5.11%.

Rupee weakens

The Indian rupee weakened against the dollar on Wednesday.

  • Dollar: ₹95.74, up 15 paise

  • Offshore forward market: around ₹95.79

  • Chinese yuan: around ₹14.27

  • Euro: around ₹108.97

A stronger dollar and volatile crude prices kept the rupee under pressure.

Crude oil stays above $102

Oil prices rebounded sharply on Wednesday after hopes of an immediate breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations weakened.

Oil prices

  • Brent Wednesday close: $103.08, up $3.83 or 3.86%

  • Brent early Thursday: around $102.05

  • WTI: around $91.48

Elevated crude prices remain a key risk for India because of their potential impact on inflation, the rupee and the current account deficit.

Cryptocurrencies remain weak

Cryptocurrency markets continued to trade under pressure.

  • Bitcoin: below $84,300

  • Ether: around $2,680

  • Solana: below $115

Market indicators

(September 23)

  • Sensex: 74,828.25 | +0.40%

  • Nifty 50: 23,446.80 | +0.50%

  • Bank Nifty: 56,548.90 | +0.59%

  • Nifty Midcap 100: 62,396.45 | +0.70%

  • Nifty Smallcap 100: 19,991.50 | +0.89%

  • Dow Jones: 51,511.59 | -0.68%

  • S&P 500: 7,706.03 | -0.75%

  • Nasdaq Composite: 26,936.04 | -1.13%

  • US dollar: ₹95.74 | +₹0.15

  • Gold: $4,288/oz | -$71

  • Kerala gold: ₹1,13,080/sovereign | -₹280

  • Brent crude: $103.08 | +$3.83

SCROLL FOR NEXT