Markets

US macro data, Fed cues may keep commodity markets volatile this week

The biggest trigger will be the US Fed's rate decision, along with the Federal Open Market Committee statement, economic projections and the Fed chair’s press conference.

Jose Mathew

Commodity markets are expected to remain sensitive to global macroeconomic developments in the coming week, with investors closely tracking central bank policy decisions, inflation data and signals about global economic growth.

The biggest trigger will be the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, along with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, economic projections and the Fed chair’s press conference. These signals will influence the direction of the dollar and US bond yields, which in turn will affect precious metals such as gold and silver.

A hawkish Fed stance could weigh on bullion prices, while a more dovish tone may provide support.

Inflation data and growth signals

Investors will also monitor several inflation indicators, including:

  • US Producer Price Index (PPI)

  • Canadian consumer inflation data

  • Eurozone CPI

Alongside these, US industrial production and manufacturing numbers will provide clues on the strength of global economic momentum.

Economic indicators from China such as industrial production, retail sales and property sector trends will also be important. Markets will closely watch the People’s Bank of China’s Loan Prime Rate decision, as Chinese demand remains a major driver for industrial metals.

Energy market triggers

In the energy segment, traders will track:

  • API and EIA crude oil inventory reports

  • refinery utilisation rates

  • gasoline and distillate stock levels

  • Baker Hughes rig count

These data points could influence short-term crude oil volatility.

Monetary policy decisions from major central banks including the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and the European Central Bank may also affect currency movements and global liquidity conditions.

Overall, central bank signals, inflation trends, global growth indicators and energy supply data are expected to guide commodity market direction in the week ahead.

Weekly review, technical outlook

Gold: Correction after strong rally

Gold began last week slightly higher at $5,180 compared with the previous close of $5,171, indicating a modest gap-up. Prices initially extended gains and touched a weekly high of $5,238, but selling pressure emerged later in the week.

The metal eventually dropped to a low of $5,009 and closed at $5,018, marking a weekly decline of about 2.97 percent.

Despite the pullback, the broader technical structure remains positive, with prices still holding above key medium-term support levels.

Key levels

Support
  • $4,840 — immediate support and recent breakout zone

  • $4,550 — stronger structural support

Resistance
  • $5,250 — immediate resistance

  • $5,600 — major resistance zone

Gold may enter a consolidation phase after the recent rally. Holding above $4,840 will keep the broader bullish structure intact, while a break above $5,250 could revive upward momentum.

Silver: Profit booking after strong gains

Silver opened the week at $84.48, largely unchanged from the previous close. Prices initially climbed to a weekly high of $90.01 but the rally lost momentum as selling pressure increased.

The metal later dropped to $79.46 before closing at $80.58, registering a weekly decline of about 4.61 percent.

The correction largely reflects profit booking following the strong rally earlier this year.

Key levels

Support
  • $72.20 — immediate support

  • $64.30 — stronger structural support

Resistance
  • $93.70 — immediate resistance

  • $104.50 — major resistance zone

Silver may continue to trade within a consolidation range in the near term. Maintaining levels above $72.20 will be important for preserving the broader positive structure.

Brent crude: strong rally driven by supply concerns

Brent crude oil opened the week at $99.75, sharply higher than the previous close of $93.33, reflecting a strong gap-up of nearly 6.9 percent.

Buying momentum strengthened further during the week, pushing prices to a high of $119.50 before profit booking emerged. Brent eventually settled at $103.88, recording a weekly gain of around 11.30 percent.

The rally highlights strong bullish sentiment and heightened market momentum.

Key levels

Support
  • $99.50 — immediate support

  • $88.00 — stronger support

Resistance
  • $109.00 — key resistance

  • $119.50 — major resistance zone

Crude oil may see some consolidation after the sharp rally, but sustaining above $99.50 would keep the positive structure intact.

Natural gas: Range-bound movement continues

Natural gas opened the week at $3.31, higher than the previous close of $3.1865. Prices initially climbed to $3.49, but selling pressure emerged at higher levels.

The market later dropped to $2.96 before recovering slightly to close at $3.12, registering a weekly decline of about 1.91 percent.

The price action suggests continued range-bound movement.

Key levels

Support
  • $2.71 — immediate support

  • $2.23 — stronger support

Resistance
  • $3.50 — key resistance

  • $4.12 — next resistance zone

Natural gas may continue trading within a defined range in the coming week. A sustained move above $3.50 could strengthen bullish momentum and open the path for further upside.

Research support for this article was provided by: the Research Desk of MyEquityLab.com, a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (No. INH000023843).

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Readers should consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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