Markets are heading for another bout of volatility as the West Asia conflict threatens to enter a more dangerous phase.
Last week’s rally, driven by hopes of a ceasefire, is facing a sharp reversal at the start of the new week. Peace talks have failed, and with Iran tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz, the US is moving towards a full-scale blockade of the key shipping route.
The move aims to choke Iran’s oil exports and increase economic pressure
It could also disrupt fuel supplies to major importers including China, Japan and India
Fresh tensions have heightened fears of a prolonged conflict
Although talks in Islamabad ended without a deal, neither side has ruled out further negotiations. That lingering hope helped limit deeper losses in Asian markets this morning.
Crude oil briefly surged to near $105 before easing slightly. The dollar index’s rise slowed, while gold, after dropping 2 percent, rebounded.
GIFT Nifty, which closed at 24,091.50 on Friday night, fell to 23,740 early today before recovering slightly, signalling a likely opening loss of over 300 points for the Nifty.
India’s March retail inflation data is due today, with wholesale inflation numbers expected on April 15.
Retail inflation likely rose to 3.48 percent in March from 3.21 percent in February
In the US, inflation climbed to 3.3 percent in March, driven by a 21.2 percent surge in fuel prices
India has not yet raised domestic fuel prices
US markets ended mixed on Friday amid ceasefire uncertainties, with only the Nasdaq posting gains. However, all three major indices logged strong weekly gains.
Dow Jones fell 0.56 percent to 47,916.57
S&P 500 slipped 0.11 percent to 6,816.89
Nasdaq rose 0.35 percent to 22,902.89
Weekly gains:
Dow up 3 percent
S&P 500 up 3.5 percent
Nasdaq up 4 percent
US futures fell sharply this morning before trimming losses:
Dow futures down about 500 points
S&P 500 down 1.02 percent
Nasdaq down 1.05 percent
Indian stocks listed in the US showed mixed trends:
HDFC Bank ADR edged lower, then recovered to $26.77
ICICI Bank ADR held steady after initial gains at $27.73
Infosys ADR fell 3.42 percent before recovering to $13.42
Wipro dropped nearly 4 percent, then rebounded to $2.18
European markets ended mixed on Friday. Asian markets are trading lower today:
Japan’s Nikkei down 0.85 percent
Korea’s Kospi down 1.83 percent
Australia down 0.60 percent
Hong Kong and China markets opened over 0.5 percent lower
Despite Friday’s gains, caution dominates the outlook.
Indian equities ended last week with their strongest rally in five years, breaking a six-week losing streak:
Sensex surged 4,230.7 points (5.77 percent)
Nifty jumped 1,337.5 points (5.88 percent)
Foreign investors turned marginal buyers:
Bought shares worth ₹672.09 crore in cash market
Domestic funds bought ₹410.05 crore
However, FIIs have sold ₹48,213 crore ($514 crore) so far in April.
Friday closing levels:
Sensex: 77,550.25 (+1.20 percent)
Nifty: 24,050.60 (+1.16 percent)
Bank Nifty: 55,912.75 (+1.99 percent)
Mid cap 100: +1.52 percent
Small cap 100: +1.65 percent
Market breadth remained strong.
Gold saw sharp swings amid shifting war sentiment.
Fell on Friday, then dropped nearly 2 percent early today before recovering
Now trading around $4,722 per ounce after touching $4,637
In Kerala, 22-carat gold rose:
₹1,12,080 per sovereign after weekend gains
Silver fell from $76.07 to $73.98 per ounce.
Other metals:
Platinum: $1,998
Palladium: $1,481
Rhodium: $9,600
Industrial metals rallied on Friday:
Copper up 1.67 percent
Aluminium up 1.56 percent
Rubber fell 0.39 percent
Cocoa rose 2.66 percent
Coffee gained 2.18 percent
Palm oil dropped 2.26 percent
Polymer prices declined up to 3.06 percent
Urea fell 0.96 percent; DAP steady at $720
The dollar index is rising again:
Closed Friday at 98.65
Rose to 99.18 before easing to 99.06
Euro at $1.1684
Pound at $1.3397
Yen weakened to 159.75 per dollar
Yuan steady at 6.83 per dollar
US 10-year yield rose to 4.359 percent on inflation concerns.
The rupee weakened further:
Closed at 92.73 against the dollar (down 7 paise)
In the offshore NDF market:
Dollar rose to 93.09
Yuan at 13.57
Euro at 108.66
Signals point to further weakness today.
Oil prices jumped after the US signalled a Hormuz blockade.
Brent rose from $95.20 to above $103 before easing to $101.8
WTI climbed to $104.59 before slipping to $104.18
Murban crude at $98.16
India’s crude basket averaged $120.28 last week, while spot prices are above $140.
Cryptocurrencies fell after weekend gains:
Bitcoin below $71,100
Ether below $2,200
Solana under $82
Sensex: 77,550.25 (+1.20%)
Nifty 50: 24,050.60 (+1.16%)
Bank Nifty: 55,912.75 (+1.99%)
Mid cap 100: 57,843.95 (+1.52%)
Small cap 100: 16,840.10 (+1.65%)
Dow Jones: 47,916.57 (-0.56%)
S&P 500: 6,816.89 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq: 22,902.89 (+0.35%)
Dollar: ₹92.73 (+₹0.07)
Gold (oz): $4,749.20 (-18.30)
Gold (sovereign): ₹1,11,720 (+₹120); Saturday ₹1,12,080 (+₹360)
Brent crude: $95.20 (-$0.72)