A pattern of unusual trading activity has emerged ahead of major public statements by US President Donald Trump during his second term, raising concerns about possible insider trading, according to a detailed analysis by BBC.
The news outlet said it examined trading volumes across multiple financial markets and found repeated spikes occurring minutes — or even hours — before key announcements by the US president. The report noted that these patterns appeared consistently across oil markets, equities, and emerging prediction platforms.
Some analysts cited by the news outlet said the activity “bears the hallmarks” of insider trading, where investors act on non-public information. Others, however, argued that experienced traders may simply be anticipating policy signals more effectively in a volatile geopolitical environment.
One of the clearest examples cited by the outlet occurred on March 9, during the US-Israel conflict with Iran. The report stated that after Trump told CBS News in an interview that the war was “very complete, pretty much,” signalling a potential de-escalation, oil prices plunged by about 25%. However, the BBC reported that a surge in bets anticipating a fall in oil prices took place 47 minutes before the interview became public. According to the BBC, traders who positioned themselves early likely made millions of dollars.
A similar pattern was observed on March 23, when Trump posted on Truth Social about “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. The news outlet noted that oil prices dropped by 11% immediately after the post, but unusual trading activity had already been recorded around 14 minutes earlier.
The outlet also highlighted stock market movements tied to Trump’s tariff decisions. On April 9, 2025, the President announced a 90-day pause on sweeping tariffs — previously unveiled as “Liberation Day” — triggering a massive rally in equities.
It said the benchmark S&P 500 surged 9.5%, one of its largest single-day gains in decades. However, the outlet reported that trading volumes had spiked significantly just before the announcement, with contracts jumping to over 10,000 per minute.
According to the BBC, some traders placed multimillion-dollar bets shortly before the news, potentially earning profits of up to $20 million.
The unusual activity prompted several US lawmakers to urge the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate whether insiders benefited unfairly.
The findings underscore growing concerns about market integrity as geopolitical decisions increasingly intersect with trading and speculative platforms.
The BBC also pointed to growing concerns in blockchain-based prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
In one case highlighted, a user on Polymarket placed $32,500 in bets predicting the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro just days before he was seized, netting over $436,000.
In another instance, six accounts reportedly earned a combined $1.2 million by correctly betting on US strikes against Iran before they were officially announced. The analysis noted that most of these accounts became inactive soon after.
Polymarket told the BBC it maintains “the highest standards of market integrity” and works with regulators to prevent abuse.
Insider trading has been illegal in the US since 1933 — and extended to government officials in 2012.
(By arrangement with livemint.com)