Canada is heading towards a sharp rise in undocumented immigrants as a massive wave of work permits expires over the next two years, with Indians expected to account for nearly half of those affected.
Immigration consultant Kanwar Seirah has warned that data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) points to an unprecedented pressure build-up in the country’s immigration system. Around 1.05 million work permits had expired by the end of 2025, while another 9,27,000 are due to lapse in 2026, he said.
Once a work permit expires, holders immediately lose legal status unless they secure a new visa or transition to permanent residency. However, recent policy changes by the Canadian government have significantly narrowed these pathways, particularly for temporary workers and international students, Seirah said.
He noted that restrictions introduced over the past year have made extensions and permanent residency approvals more selective, leaving large sections of temporary residents vulnerable to falling out of status.
Seirah says Canada has never faced such a high volume of permit expiries in such a short span. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, nearly 3,15,000 work permits are expected to expire, creating a major bottleneck for immigration processing. This compares with just over 2,91,000 expiries recorded in the final quarter of 2025.
By mid-2026, Seirah estimates that at least two million people could be living in Canada without legal status. Indians could make up roughly half of this total, a figure he described as a “very conservative estimate”. He added that tens of thousands of study permits are also set to expire, while a significant number of asylum claims may face rejection.
According to Seirah, the effects are already being felt in parts of the Greater Toronto Area, including Brampton and Caledon. Tent encampments have reportedly emerged in wooded areas, housing people who no longer have valid immigration status.
Seirah said the IRCC data and recent policy shifts should serve as a clear warning to those on temporary visas. Proactive planning and timely legal advice are becoming critical, especially for Indian nationals.
The next two years, he warned, could see an unprecedented surge in undocumented immigrants in Canada, with tighter rules making the transition to legal status increasingly difficult.
(By arrangement with livemint.com)