The war launched by Donald Trump against Iran alongside Israel is showing few signs of ending quickly, with analysts warning of long-term instability and recurring shocks to the global economy.
A month into the conflict, the assumption of a short, decisive campaign appears misplaced. Despite sustained US-Israeli air strikes and the targeting of key leadership figures, the Iranian regime remains intact and defiant, a South China Morning Post analysis shows.
Military operations may have weakened Iran’s missile and drone capabilities, but not eliminated them. Tehran continues to retain the ability to strike regional targets and disrupt critical trade routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy supplies.
Diplomatic backchannels have also failed to yield progress. Washington has demanded that Iran dismantle its nuclear programme and curb its regional influence, including ties with groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Tehran, however, has hardened its stance, insisting on sovereignty over Hormuz, a US military withdrawal from Gulf bases, and an end to attacks on its allies.
Analysts say the war has now entered a phase where neither side can secure a decisive victory quickly. For Trump, the options are limited:
escalate militarily, risking a prolonged and costlier war
pursue negotiations that could leave a weakened but hostile Iran intact
Either path carries significant geopolitical and economic consequences.
Experts warn that the conflict has already crossed critical thresholds. Direct confrontation between the US and Iran, once avoided, is now a reality. At the same time, Iran’s willingness to disrupt shipping through Hormuz has introduced a new level of risk for global trade.
The bigger concern is not just the war itself, but what follows. Even if hostilities ease, the threat of periodic disruption to oil flows and shipping lanes could become a lasting feature.
A prolonged low-intensity conflict—where tensions flare intermittently—could keep energy markets volatile and raise the cost of doing business across West Asia.
There is also uncertainty over whether Israel would halt operations even if the US steps back, or whether Iran would relinquish its leverage over global energy routes.
Countries in the Gulf face a difficult balancing act. A deeper US escalation could expose them to direct Iranian retaliation, while a failure to decisively weaken Iran would leave them vulnerable to future attacks.
This mirrors past conflicts in the region, where initial military campaigns gave way to years of instability rather than resolution.
Some analysts believe the war could ultimately reshape Iran’s trajectory. If the regime survives, it may deepen ties with powers like China, accelerate its nuclear ambitions, and adopt a more aggressive regional posture.
Such a shift could transform Iran into a more isolated but hardened state—raising the risk of recurring geopolitical shocks.
For now, what began as a calculated gamble is increasingly looking like a protracted conflict with no clear end—one that could keep global markets on edge for years.