The number of international students arriving in the US on student visas has seen a significant drop in July, continuing a worrying trend for the fourth consecutive month.
According to data from the International Trade Administration, student visa arrivals decreased by 28%, with just under 79,000 students entering the country. This marks the sharpest drop of the year, and the largest declines were seen in Asia, traditionally the biggest market for international students in the US.
The data paints a bleak picture for US universities, especially those relying on students from India and China. Student arrivals from India fell by 46%, while those from China dropped by 26%. This double blow threatens to disrupt the financial stability of US higher education institutions, many of which rely heavily on tuition fees from foreign students. With fewer students arriving, US colleges and universities face the real possibility of losing billions in tuition revenue.
These sharp declines can largely be traced back to the tightening immigration policies under the Trump administration, which has created significant barriers for prospective international students. Many students, particularly from Asian markets, have faced considerable delays in visa processing, exacerbated by the government's pause on student visa interviews in late May. When interviews resumed in mid-June, the State Department also introduced the requirement to review applicants' social media profiles, creating even more uncertainty.
These policies have disrupted the peak summer visa application season, which typically sees a surge of new students arriving in the US. The timing couldn't have been worse for US universities, which are already grappling with the consequences of these policy changes.
US universities have already warned that foreign student enrolments could fall by 30% this fall, a situation that could cost the higher education sector a massive $2.6 billion in lost tuition revenue. Some schools, such as the University of Southern California, have expressed concerns that the continued decline in international student numbers could result in tens of millions of dollars in losses. The situation is dire, especially as USC is already facing a $200 million deficit.
Arizona State University President Michael Crow has in a news report quoted as saying that the delays in student visa processing as more disruptive than the pandemic itself, highlighting just how much of a financial strain this situation is causing.
Despite the challenges, the 2023-24 school year saw a record 1.1 million international students enrolled in US higher education institutions, according to Open Doors, a data collection agency for foreign students. India and China remained the top two countries of origin, with India contributing nearly 332,000 students and China providing around 277,000.
However, this year's trends suggest that 2024-25 might not see the same success. With the visa bottlenecks still unresolved and uncertainty looming, US universities will need to adjust to a shifting international student landscape.