Oil markets swung sharply on March 25 as fresh geopolitical shocks collided with sudden peace signals in the Middle East. Brent crude slipped below $100 a barrel after a steep fall of nearly 6 percent, even as a drone strike triggered a fire at Kuwait International Airport and US President Donald Trump unveiled what is believed to be a 15-point roadmap to end the Iran conflict.
The volatility underscores how quickly sentiment is shifting between escalation and de-escalation in a region critical to global energy supplies.
Crude prices retreated after reports that Washington had shared a detailed proposal with Tehran to halt the conflict. Brent fell to around $98 a barrel, while US crude dropped below $88, reversing part of the previous session’s gains.
Markets interpreted the reported plan — which allegedly includes a temporary ceasefire, curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme and reopening of key shipping routes — as a potential breakthrough that could ease supply disruptions.
Iran, however, signalled it will retain leverage over oil flows. Its UN mission said “non-hostile vessels” could pass through the Strait of Hormuz only with prior coordination, reinforcing its grip on one of the world’s most vital oil shipping corridors.
Even as oil cooled, the conflict intensified on the ground. A drone strike hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, sparking a fire but causing no casualties. Authorities said emergency protocols were activated swiftly to contain the damage.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also claimed missile and drone attacks on US-linked military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, alongside fresh strikes on Israel. In response, Israel launched attacks on Tehran, including reported hits on residential areas.
Trump said negotiations are already under way and that counterparts “want to make a deal so badly”, contradicting Iran’s earlier denial of any talks, which it dismissed as “fake news”.
US and Israeli media reports suggest a 15-point plan has been shared with Iran, possibly including:
A month-long ceasefire window
Restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities
Withdrawal of support to proxy groups such as Hezbollah
Reopening of key maritime routes
While the details remain unverified, even the possibility of structured negotiations has been enough to calm oil markets.
Control of the Strait of Hormuz remains central to the crisis. Tehran has made it clear that normalisation in oil markets depends on regional stability under its security framework.
With US troop deployments reportedly under consideration and strikes continuing across multiple fronts, markets are likely to remain volatile — caught between the risk of supply shocks and fragile hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough.