Pulled back from the brink by a ceasefire, nuclear-armed India and Pakistan avoided a potentially catastrophic collision, but the tides of nationalism unleashed by the four-day clash are still rising on either side of the border.
Now, leaders of the two nations are seeking to cement a political dividend from the conflict, with competing claims of victory relayed to domestic audiences attuned to triumphalism whenever the two nations clash, says a report in the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.
“The conflict has created a national fervour on both sides,” Ajay Darshan Behera, professor at the Academy of International Studies at Delhi’s Jamia Millia Islamia University, told SCMP.
The ruling BJP is now hoping for a bounce in state polls later this year from Operation Sindoor – the military response to a militant attack in Indian Kashmir’s Pahalgam that killed 26 civilians on April 22. India blamed Pakistan for backing the militants, a charge Islamabad has denied.
The BJP has already started campaigning on the basis that its government – helmed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi – dared to cross a red line, targeting what it says was “terrorist infrastructure” on Pakistani soil.
But its strikes may have had the unintended consequence of shoring up support for Pakistan’s military establishment, experts say, months after protests erupted against the jailing of former prime minister Imran Khan.
“Pakistan has also created a narrative that they won the war,” Behera said, noting that General Asim Munir was promoted to field marshal after the conflict, projecting a victory to his domestic audience. Defence spending is also poised to skyrocket by 20 per cent as the threat level from India ratchets higher.
“The army has bolstered its reputation after the skirmishes with India,” said Uday Chandra, assistant professor at Georgetown University. “It has emphasised to its critics, especially to Imran Khan’s supporters, that Pakistan without the army in charge would be unviable.”
Both governments are making bold claims over who came out worse for the short conflict and are deflecting any criticism of their handling of the conflict as unpatriotic.
While Islamabad says six Indian fighter jets were downed by its forces, Modi has declared Operation Sindoor a “humiliating defeat” for Pakistan.
“The conflict has added to Modi's image of being a strong and decisive leader and that he showed Pakistan their place. This will have political benefits for the BJP,” Behera told SCMP.
Elections are due in the politically strategic eastern state of Bihar from November this year. Polls in other states including West Bengal, Assam, Kerala and Tamil Nadu are due through 2026 to 2029 before national elections are held again in the country.
Pakistan has made the louder splash with its claims of military success. Pakistan said its Chinese-made J-10 jets took down several Indian Air Force aircraft, a claim partly substantiated by India’s chief of defence staff, General Anil Chauhan, earlier this month.
The Indian military has said it destroyed an air-defence system in the city of Lahore and caused significant damage on Pakistani air bases, including Nur Khan in Rawalpindi, where the country’s military and nuclear command are located. India also said it had downed “hi-tech” Pakistani jets.
Pakistanis have rallied around the flag – and that has given a timely image boost to the powerful military in a country where no elected leader has ever served out their full five-year term.
“On the surface, things appear under control [in Pakistan] with war jingoism obscuring the country’s domestic troubles. But scratch below the surface and you find that the army enjoys prestige but limited legitimacy,” Chandra said.
The Pakistan military had “resurrected itself a little” with the India flare-up, Behera said. “What happens in the long term, we have to wait and see.”
In September Modi will hit 75, the informal age of political retirement within the BJP and its ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.
The menace of Pakistan may fuel any attempt to prolong his stay in office, analysts say, amid local media reports speculating on potential successors.
Yashwant Deshmukh, founder of pollster C-voter, estimates that Modi’s popularity ratings have gone up a notch since the conflict, saying that he is likely to continue in power until at least the end of his prime ministerial tenure in 2029.
“But the question of someone succeeding Modi only arises if he goes anywhere. I don’t see that happening yet,” Deshmukh said.
India says the ceasefire followed a call by Pakistan’s director general of military operations after Indian forces inflicted extensive damage on nine Pakistani air bases.
Pakistan says it downed several Indian jets during the clash, while India too has claimed that it shot Pakistani planes. In the fog of war, neither side’s claims have been fully substantiated.
Trump has repeatedly claimed that he mediated the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, embarrassing New Delhi which has always insisted that any dispute with Pakistan will be sorted bilaterally without involving a third party.
Indian officials have denied Trump’s claim that he single-handedly brokered the ceasefire between India and Pakistan. Modi “lost face” over the episode, Chandra said.
“Modi has not directly contradicted the statement by Trump. But he has also not answered a basic question raised by ordinary Indians: ‘If India was really as successful as media outlets showed, then why pull out of the conflict?’” he asked.