India’s exports to the United States have fallen sharply for the fourth consecutive month, hit by steep tariffs imposed under former Donald Trump’s tariffs, according to a new report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
Between May and September 2025, India’s shipments to its largest export market dropped by 37.5 percent, from $8.8 billion to $5.5 billion, the trade think tank said in a note released on Sunday. The report called it one of the steepest short-term declines in recent years.
The fall follows the imposition of punitive tariffs by the Trump administration earlier this year, beginning at 10 percent in April, raised to 25 percent in August, and eventually reaching 50 percent by late August. India has also been singled out with an additional 25 percent levy as “punishment” for continuing oil imports from Russia, the report noted.
“The latest data make one point clear — tariffs have not only squeezed India’s trade margins but also exposed structural vulnerabilities across key export industries,” GTRI observed.
Sectors that previously enjoyed zero tariffs have been the worst affected, with exports of such goods plunging 47 percent, from $3.4 billion in May to $1.8 billion in September.
Smartphones and pharmaceutical products — two of India’s fastest-growing export categories — have suffered the sharpest declines. Smartphone exports, which had surged 197 percent between April and September 2024, crashed 58 percent in the same period this year, falling from $2.29 billion in May to $884.6 million in September.
Month-wise, exports slid from $2 billion in June to $1.52 billion in July, $964.8 million in August, and $884.6 million in September. GTRI said the reasons for the decline “need further examination.”
Pharmaceutical exports to the US also dropped 15.7 percent, from $745.6 million to $628.3 million during the same five-month period.
While the tariff impact has been broad-based, industrial metals and auto components — which face uniform duties across global suppliers — have shown relatively smaller contractions. Aluminium exports fell 37 percent, copper 25 percent, auto parts 12 percent, and iron and steel 8 percent.
GTRI noted that “because all global suppliers faced similar duties, the dip appears linked more to a slowdown in US industrial activity than to any loss in Indian competitiveness.”
Traditional labour-intensive sectors — textiles, gems and jewellery, chemicals, agri-foods and machinery — together account for nearly 60 percent of India’s exports to the US. These segments saw a 33 percent fall, from $4.8 billion in May to $3.2 billion in September, the report found.
Gems and jewellery exports plunged 59.5 percent, from $500.2 million to $202.8 million, with factories in Surat and Mumbai reporting a sharp drop in US orders. The lost business has been absorbed by Thailand and Vietnam, GTRI said.
Exports of solar panels fell 60.8 percent, from $202.6 million to $79.4 million, while shipments of other clean energy components declined 16.7 percent, from $600 million to $500 million.
GTRI added that with China facing only 30 percent tariffs and Vietnam 20 percent, India’s competitiveness in the US market has eroded significantly.
The GTRI analysis shows that nearly every major export category has been affected by the Trump tariffs, including chemicals, marine products, textiles, agri and processed foods.
Trade experts say that unless the US relaxes its tariff stance or India negotiates concessions through a bilateral trade deal, exporters could continue to face pressure in the coming quarters.
Despite ongoing talks, New Delhi has maintained that it will not rush into signing any trade agreement that undermines its economic interests.
(By arrangement with livemint.com)