A fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran is showing early signs of strain, with US President Donald Trump asserting that American forces will remain “in place” until Tehran complies fully with what he described as the “real” terms of the deal.
The statement, made on Truth Social, highlights deep disagreements between Washington and Tehran over the scope and conditions of the two-week ceasefire, even as tensions spill over into Lebanon and threaten wider regional stability.
Here is Trump's post in full:
All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with. If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the “Shootin’ Starts,” bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before. It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE. In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest. AMERICA IS BACK!
At the heart of the tensions are conflicting interpretations of a proposed 10-point ceasefire framework.
Trump has outlined two non-negotiable conditions:
Iran must abandon any pursuit of nuclear weapons
The Strait of Hormuz must remain open and secure
According to Trump, Iran had agreed to these conditions “a long time ago”, but recent developments suggest otherwise.
Iranian positions have evolved through multiple versions:
An initial proposal included ending hostilities across Iran, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon, alongside reopening the Strait of Hormuz and securing US sanctions relief
A later version from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council added demands related to uranium enrichment and control over the Strait
References to enrichment were subsequently removed from official English communications, signalling possible internal recalibration
Crucially, there remains no shared understanding on whether the ceasefire extends to Lebanon—one of the most contentious gaps in the agreement.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments, remains a major point of friction.
Iran has issued a strong warning that:
Ships passing through the strait without its permission could be “targeted and destroyed”
This directly contradicts the US position that the waterway must remain open and safe for international transit, raising concerns over potential disruptions to global energy markets.
Even as Washington and Tehran debate terms, violence in Lebanon is escalating.
Hezbollah has launched rockets into Israel
Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have reportedly killed at least 182 people
The situation has drawn sharp warnings from António Guterres, who said the ongoing fighting poses a “grave risk” to the already fragile ceasefire.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps has also warned of a “regret-inducing response” if Israeli attacks continue, signalling the risk of a broader regional conflict.
Iranian officials have accused the US and its allies of breaching the agreement:
Iran’s parliament speaker claimed that at least three ceasefire clauses have been “openly and clearly violated”
Tehran continues to insist that sanctions relief is a central condition for any lasting truce
These accusations further complicate efforts to stabilise the agreement and reduce hostilities.
The ceasefire, initially seen as a step towards de-escalation, now appears increasingly fragile:
Divergent interpretations of core terms
Escalation in Lebanon
Threats to the Strait of Hormuz
Disagreements over sanctions and nuclear commitments
Together, these factors raise serious questions about whether the truce can hold, or whether the region is heading towards another cycle of escalation.
For global markets—particularly oil—the situation remains highly sensitive, with any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz likely to trigger sharp price volatility and renewed economic uncertainty.