When Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets President Donald Trump on Thursday, there will, for sure, be some warm hugs and shared laughs.
But that will not be all. The meeting will test the much-hyped “bromance” between Trump and Modi, many international media outlets, including The Guardian and BBC News, pointed out.
Trump has called Modi `the nicest human being,' while Modi has referred to Trump as his “dear friend.” Both are populists who rose to power on waves of anti-establishment ardour and nationalism, say international media outlets. Trump and Modi have developed a personal rapport over the years, marked by high-profile meetings and joint appearances. Not surprisingly, Trump has often criticised India, but he has never criticised Modi.
But, Trump has not held back his frustration over India’s high tariffs, labelling the country a “very big abuser” and accusing it of blocking US imports.
Modi’s two-day visit comes shortly after Trump announced a 25% tariff on global steel and aluminium imports into the US. Trump is also planning a system of `reciprocal tariffs, saying: “If they charge us, we charge them.”
The metal tariffs have rattled India’s steel and aluminium industries, which export good worth billions of dollars to the US each year. The Indian Steel Association said on Tuesday the steel tariff was “expected to slash exports to the US by 85%”.
In an effort to pre-empt punitive trade action, in its budget last week the Indian government cut duties on a range of goods, including high-end motorcycles such as Harley-Davidsons. It is also considering tariff cuts on other products, including electronics, medical and surgical equipment, chemicals, dish antennae and wood pulp, many of which originate in the US.
Trump has urged Modi to buy more US defence and energy products, with India presenting a lucrative market as the world’s largest arms importer. Reports suggest India is already in talks to buy combat vehicles and finalise a fighter jet engine deal.
India has already lowered some tariffs and taken back 104 undocumented Indians. These pre-emptive steps are meant to prevent Trump from making specific demands of India and to reduce the likelihood of tensions with the new Trump administration.
Still, Trump may ask Modi to make additional tariff reductions, to further chip away at a US goods and services trade deficit with India that has approached $46bn in recent years.
But an obstacle could become an opportunity: Modi may call on Trump to enter into bilateral talks on an economic partnership accord meant to reduce tariffs on both sides. In recent years, Delhi has shown a growing willingness to pursue trade deals. The Trump administration may prove to be a more willing interlocutor than the Biden administration.
Trump may also ask Modi to take back more undocumented Indians. Given that some estimates put the number at more than 7,00,000 -- the third-largest such group in the US -- this will be a difficult and delicate issue for Delhi to navigate.
Trump may also call on Modi to buy more American oil. In 2021, India was the top destination for American oil exports, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine brought major changes in global oil markets and prompted Delhi to ramp up imports of cheap oil from close partner Russia. The price point will determine how much oil India is willing to buy from the US.
Modi may make a pitch for Trump to maintain the H-1B visa regime. These visas for highly skilled foreign workers, heavily criticised by some influential Trump supporters, have been awarded to large numbers of Indian tech employees in the US.
Delhi is partnering with Tehran to develop a port in Chabahar city - part of a broader Indian strategy to strengthen connectivity links with Central Asia, via Iran and Afghanistan. But last week, the US administration released a presidential memorandum outlining Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign on Tehran, which hints at removing sanctions waivers for those conducting commercial activities in Chabahar. Modi may seek clarity on what this means for Delhi.
Trump may also gauge Modi's position on a big foreign policy priority: ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Delhi has a strong interest in these wars winding down. Modi's position on the war in Ukraine -- calling for an end to the conflict without criticising Putin or Russia -- echoes that of Trump.
India's special relationship with Russia and close ties with Israel may prompt Trump to see if Modi would want to play a third-party mediator role as well. Modi would probably be comfortable doing so only if the parties are receptive to outside mediation.
But despite some potentially delicate discussions this week, both leaders will want to maintain a positive tone.