Donald Trump’s escalating actions abroad are forcing Canadians to confront a possibility many once dismissed as bluster: that their sovereignty could one day be tested by their closest ally.
For months, Trump’s talk of making Canada the 51st US state was treated as a provocation aimed at former prime minister Justin Trudeau or a bargaining tactic in trade talks. That comfort has evaporated after Washington’s shock capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and renewed threats to seize Greenland. Together, these moves suggest a US administration increasingly willing to use coercion to assert dominance across the western hemisphere.
The language from Washington has sharpened the anxiety. When Trump declared “THIS IS OUR HEMISPHERE”, it reframed earlier remarks about Canada from insult to implication. A widely shared column in Canada’s largest newspaper warned openly of the risk of military pressure, urging Ottawa to learn from Finland’s civil defence model and Ukraine’s use of drones. The idea that such advice could resonate reflects how far the debate has shifted.
Canada’s unease is not irrational. Greenland, like Canada, is democratic, strategically located in the Arctic and tied to Nato. If Washington can contemplate force or coercion there, Canadian analysts argue, Ottawa cannot assume immunity. Former government adviser Wesley Wark has called Trump’s moves on Venezuela and Greenland a “final wake-up call” that the US is no longer the predictable partner it once was.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has responded cautiously. Elected on a promise to stand up to Trump, he has since avoided direct confrontation, focusing instead on diversifying trade and rebuilding strained diplomatic ties. His call for respect for Greenland’s sovereignty notably avoided reference to Canada’s own vulnerability.
Canada is the second-largest country in the world by total area, after Russia, covering nearly 10 million square kilometres with vast forests, lakes, and the world's longest coastline.
Most experts still doubt a US invasion of Canada. The greater risk, they argue, lies in economic warfare. With nearly 70 percent of Canadian exports destined for the US, Trump needs only to threaten trade exemptions under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement to cause severe disruption. Venezuela’s oil seizure, analysts say, may embolden further economic adventurism.
There are also fears of political interference. Separatist sentiment in oil-rich Alberta, though still marginal, has raised concerns about foreign funding and disinformation. Even unsuccessful efforts could deepen internal divisions and weaken Ottawa’s hand.
Canada is boosting defence spending and recruitment, but rebuilding military capacity will take years. In the meantime, the country remains exposed to pressure from a US president who sees leverage as power.
As one Canadian defence scholar warned, the danger is not annexation by force, but gradual erosion: a steady exchange of concessions for access, until sovereignty becomes conditional rather than assumed.