Uncertainty over tariffs continues to linger. US President Donald Trump warned that countries attempting to bargain with the US by exploiting the situation could face higher tariffs. Although new rates are set to come into effect today, there is still no clarity on what those rates will be. There is also concern that even if rates are imposed now, Trump may not hesitate to alter them again within days.
With talks scheduled in Geneva on Thursday, the global community is hopeful that there will be no US attack on Iran today or tomorrow.
Monday’s US market performance suggests that concerns around artificial intelligence (AI) have resurfaced.
In derivatives trading at GIFT City, Gift Nifty touched 25,599.50 on Monday night. This morning it fell to 25,563 before rising to 25,631, and then slipped again. The indications suggest that the market could open with a significant decline today.
In the New York ADR (American Depositary Receipt) market, Infosys fell 5.05 per cent on Monday and slipped another 0.07 per cent in subsequent trading. Wipro declined 3.10 per cent and then fell a further 0.46 per cent in after-hours trade.
With President Donald Trump making it clear that he would deal harshly with everyone on the tariff issue, US markets witnessed a sharp fall on Monday. At the same time, AI-related concerns intensified again.
Trump also warned that anyone attempting to exploit the Supreme Court ruling would face heavy penalty tariffs. All of this has deepened uncertainty over tariffs. The new rate is scheduled to take effect today. The European Union announced that if the overall 15 per cent tariff condition is not honoured, it would withdraw from the trade agreement with the US. The EU has postponed its parliamentary session convened to approve the agreement.
After Anthropic AI revealed the capabilities of its new Claude Code product, IBM shares fell 13 per cent. Software firm CrowdStrike dropped 10 per cent. Financial companies Mastercard and American Express lost around seven per cent amid AI-related fears.
The Dow Jones fell 821.91 points (1.66%) to close at 48,804.06. The S&P 500 declined 71.76 points (1.04%) to 6,837.75. The Nasdaq Composite lost 258.80 points (1.13%) to end at 22,627.27.
US futures are trading slightly higher this morning, with the Dow up 0.10 per cent, the S&P up 0.14 per cent and the Nasdaq up 0.22 per cent.
European markets closed sharply lower on Monday. Trial results showing that weight-loss drug Cagrisema was less effective than Eli Lilly’s Tirzepatide dragged Novo Nordisk shares down 15 per cent.
Asian markets are trading in mixed directions today. Japan’s Nikkei is up 0.75 per cent, while Australia is down 0.20 per cent. South Korea has declined by about one per cent. Earlier, there was a perception that a uniform 15 per cent US tariff on all countries would benefit Korea, but that view has now been reassessed. Hong Kong has fallen over 0.70 per cent. After a week-long holiday, Chinese markets reopened up 1.15 per cent. The Chinese central bank left interest rates unchanged for the 10th consecutive month
On the perception that recent developments in tariffs could favour India, the Indian market opened with a sharp rally yesterday. However, as it gradually became clear that the situation was not entirely favourable, gains narrowed. The mid-cap index slipped into losses, and the broader market also showed weakness.
Trump’s remarks yesterday indicate that he is unwilling to shift from his earlier stance. The current position is a uniform tariff for all countries. Vietnam, Bangladesh or Ecuador are neither facing higher nor lower tariffs compared to India. No one can say when this situation might change. Indian exporters are postponing shipments for the time being.
An American attack on Iran is not expected before Thursday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Israel tomorrow and the day after, based on this assessment.
The IT index declined for the third consecutive day. Metal, realty, consumer durables and defence stocks also fell yesterday. Public sector banks, auto, oil, FMCG, pharma and healthcare sectors advanced.
The Sensex rose 479.95 points (0.58%) to close at 83,294.66. The Nifty gained 141.75 points (0.55%) to end at 25,713.00. Bank Nifty added 92.25 points (0.15%) to close at 61,264.25. The Midcap 100 index fell 258.30 points (0.43%) to 59,255.65, while the Smallcap 100 index rose 49.80 points (0.29%) to 17,051.95.
Market breadth remained negative. On the BSE, 1,894 stocks advanced while 2,435 declined. On the NSE, 1,488 rose and 1,668 fell.
On the NSE, 92 stocks touched 52-week highs while 191 hit 52-week lows. Six stocks were in the upper circuit and three in the lower circuit.
Foreign investors were net buyers on Monday, while domestic investors were net sellers. Foreign funds made net purchases worth ₹3,483.70 crore in the cash market. Domestic funds and institutions together recorded net sales of ₹1,292.24 crore.
The Nifty’s close created the impression that the path to 26,000 is opening up. The index has moved above all major moving averages. However, there is not enough momentum yet for an uninterrupted advance. Only a strong move above 25,800 would make 26,000 achievable. Supports for Nifty today may be at 25,635 and 25,595, while resistance could emerge at 25,760 and 25,800.
Foreign brokerage Jefferies cut target prices for major Indian IT services companies: HCL Technologies to ₹1,390; Infosys to ₹1,290; Mphasis to ₹2,450; Mindtree to ₹4,300; TCS to ₹2,350; Hexaware to ₹460. The target for Coforge was also reduced.
These are 20–33 per cent lower than the targets set in January, when Jefferies had recommended buying. In the weeks when prices fell, they had not reduced targets or issued sell recommendations. Over the past few weeks, foreign funds have sold IT stocks heavily. The latest revision comes after prices have already fallen around 30 per cent over two months. Major IT stocks declined yesterday, with the IT index down about 1.42 per cent.
Morgan Stanley expects strong profit growth for defence player Solar Industries, projecting annual revenue growth of 20 per cent and net profit growth of 23 per cent through 2030. It has set a target price of ₹16,151. The stock rose three per cent intraday before closing with modest gains.
Citing rising semiconductor prices and other adverse factors, Morgan Stanley cut Dixon Technologies’ target price to ₹8,700. The stock, which was at ₹11,000, fell 4.17 per cent.
Macquarie set a target price of ₹5,000 for Torrent Pharma.
Shares of IDFC First Bank fell as much as 20 per cent after a ₹590 crore fraud was detected at its Chandigarh branch. Around two per cent of the bank’s equity changed hands in bulk deals in the morning. The Haryana government ended its dealings with the bank. The bank said it would compensate the government for the ₹590 crore loss and has appointed KPMG to investigate.
After certain unauthorised transactions came to light, the Haryana government sought clarification from AU Small Finance Bank. Its shares fell up to eight per cent.
UPL shares fell 14.26 per cent following the announcement of a restructuring plan.
Morpen Laboratories surged 15 per cent after securing a ₹825 crore drug development and manufacturing contract.
Kitex Garments rose up to 10 per cent in the morning on US tariff developments, though gains later narrowed to 5.26 per cent. However, textile exporters such as Gokaldas, Indo Count and Welspun fell between three and six per cent.
The Central Excise Commissioner in Kochi issued a demand notice of ₹1,816.65 crore to BPCL. The company said it would file an appeal. The notice relates to 19 cases from 2004–2010, following orders by the adjudicating authority. The amount comprises ₹476.94 crore in excise duty and ₹1,339.70 crore in interest.
War fears and tariff uncertainty pushed gold and silver prices sharply higher again. However, prices fell steeply this morning.
Gold rose to $5,236 per ounce before closing Monday at $5,229.40, up 2.5 per cent. This morning it climbed to $5,250.90 before dropping below $5,150 and then recovering to around $5,180.
Silver rose to $89.17 per ounce on Monday before closing at $88.33. This morning it declined to $86.83.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold rose by ₹720 to ₹1,17,520 per sovereign after volatile trading on Monday.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), 24-carat gold for 10 grams rose to ₹1,61,729 before closing marginally lower. Silver rose to ₹2,68,875 per kg before ending at ₹2,65,350.
Platinum fell to $2,102, palladium to $1,693 and rhodium to $11,300.
Industrial metals, except aluminium, rose on Monday. Copper gained 0.64 per cent to $12,831.15 per tonne. Aluminium fell 0.26 per cent to $3,094.54 per tonne. Nickel, zinc, tin and lead advanced.
In international markets, rubber rose 0.88 per cent to 194.40 cents per kg.
Cocoa, which had risen the previous day after weeks of decline, fell again by 1.04 per cent to $3,145 per tonne.
Tea prices were unchanged. Coffee fell 2.61 per cent. Palm oil remained at 4,123 Malaysian ringgit per tonne.
The dollar index closed at 97.71 on Monday and rose to 97.88 this morning.
The euro fell to $1.1779 and the pound to $1.3488. The Japanese yen weakened to 155.02 per dollar. The Chinese yuan remained at 6.91 per dollar.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.042 per cent.
The rupee strengthened on Monday, with the dollar falling 10 paise to close at ₹90.88. However, tariff-related volatility may weaken the rupee today. In the offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market, the dollar rose to ₹91.02 this morning. The Chinese yuan rose to ₹13.17. The impact is likely to be seen in today’s domestic trading.
With confirmation that the US and Iran will hold talks in Geneva on Thursday, crude oil prices remain subdued. However, given ongoing war preparations, prices are not falling sharply. Brent crude closed at $71.50 per barrel on Monday and slipped to $71.44 this morning. WTI is at $66.27 and UAE’s Murban at $71.51. Natural gas has risen to $3.007.
Cryptocurrencies fell on Monday before recovering slightly. Bitcoin touched $63,885 before rising above $64,250 this morning. Ether is below $1,840 and Solana below $78.
(23 February 2026, Monday)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sensex | 83,294.66 | 0.58% |
| Nifty 50 | 25,713.00 | 0.55% |
| Bank Nifty | 61,264.25 | 0.15% |
| Midcap 100 | 59,255.65 | -0.43% |
| Smallcap 100 | 17,051.95 | 0.29% |
| Dow Jones | 48,804.06 | -1.66% |
| S&P 500 | 6,837.75 | -1.04% |
| Nasdaq | 22,627.27 | -1.13% |
| Dollar | ₹90.88 | (₹0.10) |
| Gold (ounce) | $5,229.40 | +$121.50 |
| Gold (sovereign) | ₹1,17,520 | ₹720 |
| Brent crude | $71.50 | -$0.26 |