Stock Markets

A cautiously positive week for markets

Weekly market analysis, and outlook for the current week

Jose Mathew

Indian equity markets are expected to trade with a cautiously positive bias in the coming week, supported by stable global cues, easing crude oil prices, and a strong technical structure. Strength in US markets and relatively steady European trends are likely to support sentiment, although mixed signals from Asian markets may keep volatility elevated.

Crude decline a key positive

The recent decline in crude oil prices remains a key positive, as it helps ease inflation concerns, supports corporate margins, and improves India’s macro stability. From a technical perspective, the Nifty continues to trade above its key moving averages, indicating an underlying bullish trend.

Immediate resistance is placed near 24,400, and a decisive breakout above this level could extend the rally towards 25,200, while 24,000–23,500 remains a strong support zone. However, after the recent sharp rally, some profit booking or consolidation at higher levels cannot be ruled out. Overall, the broader trend remains positive, and a buy-on-dips strategy is likely to be effective, while closely monitoring global developments and crude oil price movements.

Last week's market recap

Indian equity markets ended the week on a positive note, with broad-based buying across most key sectors. The BSE Sensex gained 1.22 percent to close at 78,493.54, while the Nifty 50 advanced 1.30 percent to settle at 24,353.55. The Bank Nifty also moved higher, gaining 1.20 percent to close at 56,565.70, reflecting sustained buying interest in banking stocks. Sectorally, the rally was led by metals, media, realty and IT.

During the week, the Nifty maintained a steady upward trend, opening at 23,589.60 and continuing its momentum to touch a high of 24,400.90, before closing near the higher levels at 24,353.55.

The recovery was driven by a combination of easing geopolitical tensions, a sharp decline in crude oil prices, and a return of foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows. Positive global cues, supported by gains in US markets and strong global liquidity, further boosted sentiment. Additionally, a stable rupee and improving domestic macroeconomic conditions supported the uptrend.

On the technical front, the market witnessed short covering after being in an oversold zone, leading to a sharp rebound. Overall, the recovery reflects improving risk appetite, though sustainability will depend on crude oil trends and geopolitical developments.

Nifty 50 technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the Nifty continues to exhibit a strong positive bias, trading above its short-term moving averages with improving momentum indicators. The formation of a bullish weekly candle, along with a close near the weekly high, indicates sustained buying interest.

The index has recovered from the oversold zone and is showing strength. On the upside, the 24,350–24,400 zone remains a crucial resistance on the weekly chart. A decisive breakout above this range could extend the rally towards 25,200 levels in the coming weeks.

On the downside, immediate support is placed in the 24,000–23,500 range. A break below 24,000 would be required to alter the current positive trend. Overall, any correction is likely to attract buying interest.

Bank Nifty technical outlook

The Bank Nifty ended the week at 56,565.70, gaining 1.20 percent, indicating continued strength in the banking segment. Technical indicators and moving averages suggest that the positive momentum may continue.

Immediate support is placed near 56,000. As long as the index sustains above this level, the uptrend remains intact and may extend towards 57,700. However, failure to hold above 56,000 could lead to short-term consolidation.

Sensex technical outlook

The Sensex closed the week at 78,493.54, gaining 1.22 percent, with the short-term structure remaining strong. The index is now trading above its previous key support level of 77,000, strengthening the bullish outlook.

As long as the index holds above 77,000, the upward trend is likely to continue. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near 80,000. Technical indicators and moving averages continue to support the ongoing momentum.

Note: Research support for this article was provided by Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com, a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Registration No. INH000023843).

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are advised to consult a qualified financial adviser and conduct their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

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