Stock Markets

Escalating West Asia conflict could unsettle Indian markets this week

The war on Iran may deepen Indian stock market volatility; persistent FII selling and weakness in global technology stocks are among key drivers to watch.

Jose Mathew

Indian equities ended the week to Friday, February 27, under pressure, with benchmark indices slipping amid weak global cues, persistent FII selling and rising geopolitical tensions. The near-term outlook remains volatile with a cautious bias.

Market outlook for coming week

Indian equity markets may continue to trade with heightened volatility, driven by a mix of global and domestic factors.

Key drivers to watch

  • Persistent FII selling, which continues to weigh on sentiment

  • Weakness in global technology stocks

  • Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly war in the Middle East

  • Uncertainty around US trade policy and tariff proposals

  • Volatility linked to derivatives positioning after the February F&O expiry

While these factors may cap upside, continued buying by Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) and stock-specific opportunities could help limit sharp downside in the broader market.

Technical view on Nifty

  • The Nifty has slipped below the key support of 25,400, indicating a short-term negative bias

  • As long as the index remains below 25,400, selling pressure may persist

  • Immediate resistance: 25,400

  • Key support levels: 24,600 and 24,335

A sustained move above 25,400 will be required for the index to regain positive momentum.

Last week market recap

Indian equity markets ended the week on a negative note, reflecting broad-based weakness across sectors.

Index performance

  • BSE Sensex fell 1.84 percent to close at 81,287.19

  • Nifty 50 declined 1.50 percent to 25,178.70

  • Bank Nifty dropped 1.1 percent to 60,529

Sectoral trends

  • Gainers: Metal and Pharma showed relative resilience with modest gains

  • Laggards: Realty, IT, PSU Banks and Financial Services stocks witnessed significant selling pressure

What weighed on the market

  • Weak global cues

  • Continued FII outflows

  • Sector-specific pressures, especially in IT

  • Volatility during February F&O expiry

IT stocks under pressure

The IT sector emerged as the biggest drag, with the Nifty IT index falling nearly 4 percent during the week amid a global technology sell-off.

Investor concerns intensified over the potential impact of AI-driven technologies on high-margin maintenance and migration services — a key revenue stream for leading Indian IT companies such as TCS, Infosys and HCLTech.

Major losers included:

  • Tech Mahindra (down 3–6 percent range)

  • HCLTech (down 3–6 percent range)

  • Infosys (down 3–6 percent range)

Global overhang

Fresh uncertainty emerged after US President Donald Trump proposed a potential 15 percent universal tariff, reviving concerns over a prolonged global trade conflict. This added to volatility across international markets and spilled over into emerging markets, including India.

At the same time, escalating tensions in Iran heightened risk aversion, prompting investors to reduce exposure to equities.

Nifty technical outlook

The Nifty is exhibiting a bearish bias, with momentum indicators weakening and the index trading below short-term moving averages.

Technical signals

  • Formation of a strong bearish candle during the week

  • Close near the lower end of the weekly range

  • Breakdown below previous support at 25,400, now a resistance zone

If the index sustains below 25,400, the downtrend may continue in the coming sessions.

Key levels:

  • Resistance: 25,400

  • Support: 24,600 and 24,335

A decisive and sustained move above 25,400 is essential for a trend reversal.

Bank Nifty technical outlook

The Bank Nifty ended at 60,529, down 1.1 percent for the week, reflecting a mildly negative bias.

Key levels to track:

  • Immediate support: 60,000

  • Major support: 58,700

  • Resistance: 61,700

A break below 60,000 could accelerate the decline towards 58,700. On the upside, a sustained move above 61,700 would be needed for the index to resume its bullish trajectory.

BSE Sensex technical outlook

The BSE Sensex closed at 81,287, declining about 1.17 percent for the week. The technical structure suggests continued near-term weakness.

Important levels:

  • Immediate resistance: 82,000

  • Key support zone: 80,400–80,000

As long as the index trades below 82,000, the negative bias may persist. The 80,400–80,000 zone could act as a crucial demand area in the event of further downside.

Overall view

Markets are at a technically sensitive juncture, with key indices trading below important support levels. While DII support and selective buying may cushion declines, sustained FII outflows and global uncertainties could keep sentiment fragile in the week ahead.

Weekly market analysis prepared by:Research Desk​, MyEquityLab.com​. (SEBI Registered Research Analyst​ No: INH000023843) 

SCROLL FOR NEXT