West Asia appears to be settling down for now, following a ceasefire announcement by US President Donald Trump between Israel and Iran. The ceasefire follows Iran's missile attacks on US military bases in Iraq and Qatar—strikes the US intercepted after prior warning. While the US and Israel claim to have destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran maintains it has launched attacks across Israeli territory, including the capital, creating an ambiguous truce.
Signs of a potential truce lifted Asian markets and US futures. Brent crude dropped 12 percent to below $70. Gold prices declined, and the dollar weakened.
Gift Nifty closed Monday night at 25,050 and rose to 25,188 in early trade today before edging slightly lower—suggesting markets may open on a positive note.
European markets ended Monday in the red. Shares of Hims & Hers Health plunged 35 percent after Novo Nordisk prematurely terminated a deal to sell its weight-loss drug through the US-based telehealth firm. Novo shares fell six percent. Tesla surged 8.5 percent after Elon Musk claimed success in robo-taxi trials.
US markets gained cautiously on Monday. Despite initial concerns over Iran’s retaliation, signs of diplomatic movement reassured investors. The major indices posted strong gains:
Dow Jones: +374.96 points (+0.89%) to 42,581.78
S&P 500: +57.33 points (+0.96%) to 6,025.17
Nasdaq: +183.57 points (+0.94%) to 19,630.98
Following Trump’s ceasefire declaration, US futures remained firm today, though slightly off highs—Dow down 0.52 percent, S&P 0.57 percent, and Nasdaq down 0.79 percent.
Asian indices rebounded today. Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.5 percent, South Korea’s benchmark surged two percent, while Hong Kong and Chinese markets opened higher.
On Monday, fears that Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt crude oil and gas flows initially dragged Indian equities lower. Markets dropped as much as 1.2 percent before paring losses as no major Iranian retaliation materialised.
Nifty 50: Down 140.50 points (0.56%) to 24,971.90
Sensex: Down 511.38 points (0.62%) to 81,896.79
Bank Nifty: Down 193.50 points (0.34%) to 56,059.35
Nifty Midcap 100: Up 211.30 points (0.36%) to 58,206.80
Nifty Smallcap 100: Up 126.70 points (0.70%) to 18,320.90
Market breadth turned negative. On BSE, 1,788 stocks advanced while 2,273 declined. On NSE, 1,363 stocks gained and 1,544 fell. Only 4 stocks hit 52-week highs, while 38 fell to 52-week lows. A total of 79 stocks hit upper circuit and 101 touched lower circuit.
Foreign investors offloaded ₹1,874.38 crore in the cash market on Monday, while domestic funds purchased ₹5,591.77 crore worth of equities.
The easing of West Asian tensions is expected to lift Indian markets today. Crude oil’s 7 percent fall has also helped reduce anxiety. If Nifty crosses 25,100, a renewed bull rally may begin, with 25,200 acting as resistance and 24,700 as a support zone. Immediate support is seen at 24,865 and 24,720, with resistance at 25,040 and 25,190.
Gold fell 1 percent after the ceasefire announcement, touching $3,332 per ounce before rebounding to $3,351. Further declines are likely. In Kerala, gold dropped ₹40 per sovereign to ₹73,840 on Monday and may fall further today. Silver declined to $36.05 per ounce.
Among industrial metals, copper gained 0.92 percent to $10,034.20 per tonne. Aluminium rose 1.31 percent to $2,579.13. While nickel slipped, zinc, tin and lead advanced.
Rubber dropped 0.12 percent to 161.10 cents/kg internationally. Cocoa declined 0.96 percent to $8,554.75/tonne, while coffee surged 2.87 percent. Palm oil dropped 1.28 percent.
The ceasefire dragged the US dollar lower. The dollar index closed Monday at 98.42 and fell to 98.15 early Tuesday. The rupee weakened on Monday, closing at 86.75 against the dollar—down 16 paise. In currency markets:
Euro: $1.1595
Pound sterling: $1.354
Japanese yen: 145.55 per dollar
US 10-year bond yields fell to 4.348 percent as prices rose. China’s yuan rose to 7.18 per dollar.
West Asian peace triggered a sharp fall in crude oil prices. Brent crude plunged 12.5 percent to $69.11. WTI traded at $66.11 and Murban crude at $70.35. Natural gas prices fell 1 percent.
Cryptocurrencies soared. Bitcoin surged 6.5 percent to $105,500, while Ether jumped 10.5 percent to over $2,410. Several other cryptos gained more than 10 percent.