Indian equities are poised for gains on Monday as a confluence of positive triggers —the announcement of a nationwide GST rate cut, an upgrade to India’s sovereign credit rating, and a decline in crude oil prices — bolsters sentiment. Optimism over potential peace talks over Ukraine has further lifted global risk appetite.
Asian markets opened mixed. Oil eased while gold edged higher, and the US dollar strengthened. Investors will closely watch the minutes of the Federal Reserve and a speech by Chair Jerome Powell later this week for fresh guidance.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced in his Independence Day speech that GST rates will be comprehensively reduced before Diwali, lowering prices across a broad range of goods and services. Items from daily essentials to automobiles and cement are set to become cheaper, with only products such as cigarettes, pan masala, other tobacco items, aerated drinks and gold excluded.
Lower taxes on hotels and restaurants are expected to boost tourism, while life and health insurance premiums will also attract reduced levies. Officials expect the resultant rise in consumption to offset potential revenue losses. The GST Council will formally decide on the cuts in September.
On the eve of Independence Day, S&P Global Ratings raised India’s sovereign credit rating to BBB, a move that could lower external borrowing costs for Indian companies and attract higher foreign investment. The upgrade is also expected to support lower domestic interest rates. S&P’s action signals confidence that India’s growth prospects remain resilient despite higher US tariffs. Other rating agencies may follow suit.
US President Donald Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and several European leaders in Washington on Monday, following last week’s Trump–Putin summit in Alaska. Trump has floated a peace proposal involving Ukraine ceding some territories to Russia in exchange for NATO-equivalent US–European security guarantees. He has warned that military aid to Kyiv would be halted if the plan is rejected.
European markets closed slightly lower on Friday amid uncertainty over the Trump–Putin talks.
In the US, major indices retreated after touching fresh highs earlier in the day. The Dow Jones ended marginally higher, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both slipped, dragged down by weaker consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan index fell to 58.6 in August from 61.7 in July. Retail sales in July rose 0.5 per cent month-on-month, up 3.9 per cent year-on-year, helping limit the downside.
Applied Materials slumped 14 percent, weighing on chip stocks, while UnitedHealth surged 12 percent, supporting the Dow. Despite Friday’s losses, all three benchmarks posted weekly gains — Dow +1.74 percent, S&P 500 +0.94 percent, Nasdaq +0.81 percent.
On Thursday, Indian markets swung between gains and losses as uncertainty over Ukraine weighed. Benchmarks ended little changed, with the Nifty closing at 24,631.30 (+0.05 percent) and the Sensex at 80,597.66 (+0.07 percent). Bank Nifty gained 0.29 percent, but mid-cap and small-cap indices slipped 0.31 percent and 0.38 percent respectively.
Market breadth turned negative with more losers than gainers on both NSE and BSE. Foreign institutional investors were net sellers at ₹1,926.76 crore, while domestic funds bought ₹3,895.68 crore worth of equities.
Gold prices softened on Friday, with spot closing at $3,336.90 per ounce, before recovering to $3,343 in early Monday trade. In Kerala, local gold fell by ₹40 to ₹74,200 per sovereign. Silver closed at $38.03 per ounce.
The dollar index eased to 97.85 on Friday, though edged back to 97.92 on Monday morning. The euro fell to $1.1694, the pound to $1.3548, and the yen weakened to 147.53 per dollar. The rupee closed at 87.55 against the dollar, down 11 paise.
Crude oil declined, with Brent closing at $65.85 per barrel and trading at $65.59 in early deals. WTI stood at $62.63 and Murban at $62.28. Natural gas fell 1.5 percent.
Bitcoin traded below $116,900 while Ether slipped under $4,430.
India (Aug 14)
Sensex: 80,597.66 (+0.07%)
Nifty 50: 24,631.30 (+0.05%)
Bank Nifty: 55,341.85 (+0.29%)
MidCap 100: 56,504.25 (−0.31%)
SmallCap 100: 17,547.45 (−0.38%)
US (Aug 15)
Dow Jones: 44,946.12 (+0.08%)
S&P 500: 6,449.80 (−0.29%)
Nasdaq: 21,622.97 (−0.40%)
Currencies & commodities
Dollar/Rupee: ₹87.55 (+₹0.11)
Gold (oz): $3,336.90 (−$0.30)
Gold (India, sovereign): ₹74,200 (−₹40)
Brent crude: $65.85 (−$0.28)