Indian investors are increasingly hopeful of an extended bull run in equities. However, concerns persist over whether upcoming corporate results will justify current optimism. Despite the shift in foreign investment from debt instruments to equities, the lack of fresh inflows into Indian markets is seen as a worrying signal.
India–US trade talks in Washington have so far yielded no positive outcome. The negotiations are expected to continue today, with both sides aiming for an interim agreement. However, US President Donald Trump's reiteration that countervailing duties will apply if a deal is not reached by July 9 has added to the uncertainty.
Crude oil prices remaining soft has offered relief to India. However, the delay in announcing a date for the anticipated US–Iran talks has dampened sentiment.
In the derivatives market, GIFT Nifty closed at 25,781.50 on Friday night and slipped to 25,769 in early trade, indicating a subdued opening for Indian equities today.
European markets ended strongly on Friday, with major indices gaining over one percent. Barclays and Deutsche Bank hit decade-high levels, with Citi and JP Morgan noting further upside potential. Easing geopolitical tensions and progress in trade deals lifted equities, while the euro, pound sterling, and Swiss franc also strengthened in the currency markets.
US markets posted solid gains on Friday. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, a key inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve, rose 2.3 percent in May—higher than expected. Core inflation, excluding food and fuel, rose 2.7 percent, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in July.
The framework for a US–China trade agreement was accepted, and the July 9 tariff deadline for other countries may be extended—boosting investor sentiment. However, post-market announcements from Trump reaffirming a hard stance on tariffs and digital services tax talks with Canada raised fresh concerns.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended slightly lower after hitting intraday and closing highs. Nonetheless, US futures rose today, with the Dow up 0.51 percent, S&P 0.28 percent, and Nasdaq 0.36 percent.
Asian markets opened higher this morning. Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.5 percent in early trade, South Korea’s market rose 0.85 percent, while Hong Kong and Chinese markets started with marginal losses.
The return of foreign buyers and easing global tensions helped Indian markets rise over 2 percent last week. The Nifty and Sensex posted weekly gains, with the Nifty now just 640 points short of its all-time high of 26,277.35. The index has risen 8 percent in the first half of 2025 after falling to a 52-week low of 21,743.65 in early April.
The shift from debt to equities by foreign investors this month has been triggered by a rising rupee.
Markets are closely watching the outcome of India–US trade talks. A failure to reach a deal and the imposition of a 26 percent countervailing duty could spark a sharp correction. However, even a compromise deal may trigger a fresh rally.
Corporate earnings for the first quarter, which ends today, will begin trickling in next week. IT services firms are expected to report weak growth. Banking and financial stocks are also unlikely to show strong results. Auto and FMCG firms may have had a difficult quarter. The market expects 12 percent profit growth for Nifty companies. Any disappointment could lead to a market correction.
On Friday, Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) made net purchases worth ₹1,397.02 crore in the cash segment. Domestic institutions sold shares worth ₹588.93 crore. In June alone, FPIs have invested ₹13,107 crore in equities.
Technical analysts believe the Nifty and Sensex have broken out and may continue their upward march to fresh highs. However, if corporate earnings fail to meet expectations, a correction could follow in the coming weeks.
Resistance for Nifty is seen around 25,750–25,800, with support at 25,555 and 25,485.
Rosneft–Reliance talks: Russian energy giant Rosneft is in talks to sell its 49.5 percent stake in Nayara Energy (formerly Essar Oil) to Reliance. Nayara operates a 20 million tonne refinery and has 6,750 retail outlets. The deal is valued at around $2 billion.
Karnataka Bank resignations: Following an auditor report on financial irregularities, Karnataka Bank MD & CEO Srikrishnan Harihara Sarma and Executive Director Shekhar Rao resigned. A new Chief Operating Officer has been appointed.
Torrent Pharma acquisition: Torrent Pharmaceuticals is set to acquire JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals for ₹18,000 crore, marking the largest M&A deal in Indian pharma since Sun Pharma’s acquisition of Ranbaxy.
With geopolitical tensions easing and trade clarity improving, gold prices declined. Gold closed at $3,274.80 per ounce on Friday and dropped slightly to $3,273 this morning.
In Kerala, gold fell ₹680 on Friday to ₹71,880 per sovereign and declined a further ₹440 on Saturday to ₹71,440. Silver fell to $35.95 per ounce.
Rubber rose 2.13 percent internationally to 162.90 cents per kg. Cocoa gained 3.28 percent to $9,446.27 per tonne. Coffee eased 0.20 percent, while tea fell 4.43 percent.
The US dollar index closed at 97.40 on Friday and slipped to 97.17 this morning, indicating renewed weakness. The euro traded at $1.1732, the pound at $1.3723, and the yen at 144.27 per dollar. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries edged up to 4.279 percent.
The Indian rupee posted strong gains, with the dollar losing 23 paise to close at ₹85.48 on Friday. The Chinese yuan held steady at 7.17 per dollar.
Crude prices continued to fall amid expectations of increased OPEC production. Brent crude declined 0.90 percent to $67.13 per barrel this morning. WTI traded at $64.75, and Murban at $68.50. Natural gas prices fell by over 2.5 percent.
Cryptocurrencies edged higher, with Bitcoin touching $108,800 and Ether trading near $2,520.