Markets have once again entered an uncertain phase. On one side, volatility in global geopolitics and concerns over US policy are weighing on sentiment. On the other, weaker-than-expected profit growth by Indian companies and continued selling by foreign investors are adding to the pressure.
Market participants believe European countries may struggle to take a unified stand on the Greenland issue, and that Donald Trump could push through his agenda with relative ease. As a result, fears of an immediate US–Europe trade war have eased somewhat.
However, Trump’s attempts to bring the US Federal Reserve under tighter control and influence monetary policy are unsettling markets. This concern is reflected in the sharp fall in US futures.
Gift Nifty slipped to around 25,593 in early trade at Gift City. This indicates that the Nifty may open with little change, reflecting a cautious tone.
European markets fell on Monday as the Greenland issue intensified.
• If the situation escalates into a trade conflict, European exports could face a setback
• Germany, keen to protect exports including automobiles, recalled a 15-member military team sent to Greenland for observation
• This has strengthened the perception that Europe lacks the ability to take a strong, coordinated stand against the US
Markets are now watching whether Trump will offer Denmark a face-saving proposal. There is also concern that any forceful move could weaken NATO, leaving Europe vulnerable, especially in the context of Russian aggression.
US markets were closed on Monday on account of Martin Luther King Day. However, US futures are trading sharply lower.
• Dow futures suggest a nearly 500-point fall at the open
• Dow futures are down 0.92 percent
• S&P futures are lower by 1.10 percent
• Nasdaq futures have slipped 1.33 percent
Asian markets continued to trade weak.
• Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.92 percent amid political uncertainty after an interim election was announced for February 8
• South Korea’s Kospi slipped about half a percent
• Australia’s ASX declined 0.40 percent
China managed to achieve its 2025 GDP growth target of 5 percent, driven largely by a surge in exports. Domestic consumption, however, remained weak. Chinese markets opened higher, while Hong Kong recovered from early losses to trade in positive territory.
India’s strong GDP growth is not showing up in corporate earnings. This mismatch was one of the main reasons for Monday’s weakness in the domestic market. The Greenland issue is seen as having limited immediate impact on India.
Third-quarter results so far have disappointed.
• Profit growth of the first 143 companies to report results stood at just 3.5 percent
• This compares with net profit growth of 11.2 percent in the same quarter last year
• Even in Q2, these companies had posted profit growth of 10.2 percent
Excluding banks and financial companies, profits declined 2.4 percent. If banks, financials and oil companies are excluded, profits fell a sharper 7.9 percent. Higher wage costs linked to the new labour codes have also weighed on margins.
Reliance Industries, Wipro, other IT stocks and banks dragged the market lower. Real estate, consumer durables, healthcare, pharma and media stocks also ended in the red.
• Sensex slipped to an intraday low of 82,898
• Nifty fell to 25,494 before recovering towards the close
Bharat Coking Coal, which came out with an IPO at ₹23, listed at ₹45.
Foreign flows remain negative
Foreign investors continued to sell.
• Foreign portfolio investors sold shares worth ₹3,262.82 crore in the cash market on Monday
• Domestic institutional investors bought shares worth ₹4,234.30 crore
• Sensex fell 324.17 points, or 0.39 percent, to close at 83,246.18
• Nifty declined 108.85 points, or 0.42 percent, to end at 25,585.50
• Bank Nifty slipped 203.80 points, or 0.34 percent, to 59,891.35
• Mid-cap 100 fell 0.37 percent to 59,647.65
• Small cap 100 dropped 0.99 percent to 17,190.70
The broader market remained under pressure.
• On the BSE, 1,186 stocks advanced while 3,116 declined
• On the NSE, 866 stocks gained and 2,308 fell
• On the NSE, 85 stocks touched 52-week highs, while 420 hit 52-week lows
Many technical analysts see the Nifty staying below 25,600 as a warning sign.
• Key support is expected around 25,450
• Strong resistance is seen in the 25,700–25,800 zone
• For today, support is expected near 25,515 and 25,480
• Resistance is likely at 25,635 and 25,675
LTI Mindtree reported a sharp fall in Q3 net profit due to one-time costs linked to the new labour code. Net profit fell 30.5 percent compared with the previous quarter. Revenue rose 3.7 percent, operating margin improved to 16.1 percent, operating profit stood at ₹1,737 crore and net profit at ₹959.6 crore.
The NCLAT rejected an appeal against the ₹4,000 crore resolution plan for Vidarbha Industries Power, a positive development for Adani Power.
Three percent stakes each in Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands and Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail will be sold through block deals today at a discount of 8.4 percent.
Tata Capital reported a 19.7 percent rise in Q3 net profit, with net interest income up 44 percent, supported by strong loan growth.
Havells India posted a 6.4 percent rise in Q3 net profit, below expectations, while revenue grew 14.2 percent.
Oberoi Realty reported just 0.7 percent growth in Q3 net profit. Revenue rose 5.8 percent, while margins fell to 57.4 percent from 60.7 percent.
Ceat reported strong numbers, with revenue up 26 percent, operating profit up 65.2 percent and net profit rising 60.3 percent.
Trump’s move on Greenland pushed gold and silver prices to record highs.
• Gold touched $4,683 an ounce before closing at $4,671.50
• Early today, gold rose to $4,676.90
• Silver eased marginally to $94.00
In Kerala, 22-carat gold jumped ₹1,800 per sovereign on Monday to a record ₹1,07,240. On MCX, silver rose to ₹3,05,500 per kg before easing slightly.
Platinum traded near $2,360, palladium around $1,800 and rhodium close to $9,850.
Base metals move in different directions
Industrial metals showed mixed trends.
• Aluminium rose 0.44 percent to $3,147.78 per tonne
• Copper gained 0.26 percent to close at $13,033.05 per tonne
• Zinc, lead and tin declined, while nickel edged higher
The dollar index fell from 99.39 to 99.05 on Monday and hovered near 99.08 in early trade today.
• Euro strengthened to $1.1639
• Pound rose to $1.3416
• Japanese yen weakened to 158.21 per dollar
• US dollar remained at 6.97 yuan
• Swiss franc slipped to 0.7983 per dollar
US bond prices fell again, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury easing to 4.255 percent.
The rupee came under pressure on Monday.
• The dollar rose to ₹90.94 before RBI intervention
• The rupee finally closed 5 paise stronger at ₹90.91 per dollar
Continued foreign selling of Indian equities and bonds is weighing on the currency.
The Chinese yuan strengthened to ₹13.04, gaining 44 paise over the past month.
Crude oil remains volatile
Crude prices moved in a narrow range on Monday.
• Brent crude closed at $63.94 per barrel
• Early today, Brent traded at $64.12, WTI at $59.39 and Murban crude at $64.83
• Natural gas prices jumped 15 percent to $3.59
Cryptocurrencies remain weak.
• Bitcoin is trading above $92,600
• Ether is below $3,200
• Solana remains below $134
• Sensex: 83,246.18, down 0.39 percent
• Nifty 50: 25,585.50, down 0.42 percent
• Bank Nifty: 59,891.35, down 0.34 percent
• Mid cap 100: 59,647.65, down 0.37 percent
• Small cap 100: 17,190.70, down 0.99 percent
• Dollar: ₹90.91, up 0.05
• Gold (ounce): $4,671.50, up $73.50
• Gold (sovereign): ₹1,07,240, up ₹1,800
• Brent crude: $63.94, down 0.19 percent