Stock Markets

War worries and oil price spike may keep Dalal Street volatile this week

Markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to global developments, particularly geopolitical headlines and commodity price movements.

Jose Mathew

Indian equity markets ended the last week sharply lower as rising tensions in the Middle East, a surge in crude oil prices and continued foreign investor selling unsettled sentiment. Markets are expected to remain volatile in the coming week, with investors closely tracking global cues, crude price movements and key technical levels.

Market recap: Broad-based sell-off

Benchmark indices closed the week in the red amid widespread weakness across sectors.

  • BSE Sensex fell 2.91 percent to close at 78,918.90

  • Nifty 50 declined 2.90 percent to end at 24,450.40

  • Bank Nifty dropped 4.50 percent to 57,783.20, under-performing the broader market

Sector-wise, most indices ended lower.

Key laggards included:

  • Banking stocks

  • Realty companies

  • Media firms

  • Financial services stocks

The pharma sector was the only space that showed mild resilience during the week.

What dragged the market

A mix of global and domestic factors weighed on Dalal Street.

Major triggers included:

  • Escalating Middle East tensions, which rattled global financial markets

  • A sharp rise in crude oil prices, a concern for India as a major oil importer

  • Weakening rupee, which added to investor nervousness

  • Persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) selling

Higher oil prices raised concerns about inflation and India’s current account deficit, both of which could affect macroeconomic stability if the trend persists.

At the same time, global markets remained volatile amid uncertainty over inflation trends and interest-rate expectations, prompting investors to reduce exposure to riskier assets such as emerging market equities.

The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, oil price volatility and FII outflows resulted in heightened market volatility throughout the week.

Market outlook for March 9-13

Markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to global developments, particularly geopolitical headlines and commodity price movements.

Key factors investors will watch include:

  • Developments in the US–Iran conflict and broader Middle East tensions

  • Crude oil price trends

  • Global equity market movements

  • Direction of FII flows into emerging markets

A sustained rise in crude oil prices could intensify concerns about inflation and fiscal pressures, potentially keeping investors cautious.

Given the uncertain backdrop, analysts expect range-bound trading with sharp swings, and investors may prefer a selective approach in stock picking.

Nifty: Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the Nifty continues to show weak momentum after the recent correction.

Key levels to watch:

  • Immediate support: 24,300

  • Next support: 23,800

  • Resistance zone: around 25,000

If the index breaks decisively below 24,300, the downside could extend towards 23,800. However, if this support holds, the index may consolidate within the 24,300–25,000 range in the near term.

Bank Nifty: Technical outlook

Banking stocks remained under pressure during the week, dragging the Bank Nifty lower.

Key levels:

  • Immediate support: 57,000

  • Next support: 56,000

  • Resistance: 58,400

A sustained break below 57,000 could trigger further weakness towards 56,000. On the upside, the index must move above 58,400 to regain positive momentum.

Sensex: Technical outlook

The Sensex closed at 78,918.90, reflecting continued near-term weakness.

Important levels:

  • Immediate resistance: 80,000

  • Support zone: 77,000–75,500

As long as the index remains below 80,000, the market may continue to trade with a negative bias. The 77,000–75,500 zone is expected to act as a key support area in the short term.

Investor strategy

Given the uncertain global backdrop, market participants may consider the following approach:

  • Stay selective in stock picking

  • Focus on relatively defensive sectors such as pharma

  • Avoid aggressive positions amid elevated volatility

Until geopolitical tensions ease and crude prices stabilise, Dalal Street may continue to trade cautiously with sharp swings.

Research support: Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com, a SEBI-registered research analyst (Registration No: INH000023843).

SCROLL FOR NEXT