The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to cut interest rates and ease rupee–dollar liquidity pushed Indian equities closer to record highs on Friday. This bullish sentiment may well continue if the US Federal Reserve cuts rates on Wednesday, a move global markets are widely expecting. Should the Fed deliver, Asian and Indian markets are likely to trade firmly in the green.
A series of global central bank decisions will follow the Fed outcome within a week, including those from the Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank. Japan, grappling with rising inflation, may hike rates. With all these cues lined up, markets are expected to fluctuate in the early part of the week. Asian indices, however, opened mostly lower today.
India and the US will resume trade discussions this week, though the delegation visiting New Delhi is not at a senior decision-making level. As a result, no major breakthroughs are expected beyond clarifications and routine dialogue. Ahead of this, a US State Department official dealing with defence and space cooperation will also visit India. Even this visit is unlikely to trigger any substantive decisions. For now, progress on a comprehensive trade deal appears remote.
Washington has also taken note that India’s high-profile engagement with Russian president Vladimir Putin did not result in any major defence agreements. India’s requests for S-500 missile systems, Su-57 jets and nuclear submarines are unlikely to materialise soon. The US, however, does not view the meeting as disruptive to India–US relations.
In GIFT City, Nifty derivatives closed at 26,332 on Friday night, rising to 26,340 this morning before pulling back to 26,312 and then recovering again. This signals a largely flat opening for Indian markets today.
European indices ended Friday on divergent paths, with Germany’s benchmark index edging up, while the pan-European Stoxx 600, and UK and French indices declined. Eurozone GDP growth for the third quarter has been revised upward from 0.2% to 0.3%. Shares of Swiss Re slid 6.5% after the insurer projected only modest profit growth this year.
US equities rose for a fourth straight session on Friday. Inflation measured under the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index stood at 2.8% in September, slightly below expectations. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reading also surprised on the upside. These data points strengthen the likelihood of a Fed rate cut this Wednesday, with markets pricing in an 87% probability of the policy rate being lowered from 3.75–4.00% to 3.50–3.75%.
Markets are now keenly watching how investors react to Netflix’s proposed $72 billion acquisition of Warner-Discovery once trading begins today.
The Dow Jones climbed 104.05 points to close at 47,954.99. The S&P 500 added 13.28 points to end at 6,870.40, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 72.99 points to close at 23,578.13. US futures are trading mixed this morning.
Most Asian markets opened weak today. Japan’s Nikkei fell half a per cent after the country’s July–September GDP contraction was revised lower. Australia’s benchmark index is marginally down, while South Korea’s Kospi dipped at the open. Hong Kong slipped slightly, whereas China’s index ticked up 0.20%. China’s November export data is due today, with forecasts pointing to a 3.8% rise.
The RBI’s rate cut and liquidity measures boosted market sentiment on Friday, pushing benchmark indices sharply higher. However, the move did not significantly ease concerns in the currency market, where the rupee remained volatile before closing at Thursday’s level. Foreign investors continued selling, offloading ₹438.9 crore in the cash market, while domestic funds absorbed ₹4,189.17 crore. FIIs have withdrawn ₹11,820 crore from Indian equities in the first week of December alone, taking total outflows this year to ₹1.55 lakh crore.
The Sensex rose 447.05 points to close at 85,712.37, while the Nifty climbed 152.70 points to finish at 26,186.45. The Bank Nifty surged 488.50 points to end at 59,777.20. Mid-caps and small-caps showed mixed performance. Market breadth remained weak, with declines outnumbering advances on both the BSE and NSE.
With Nifty closing above 26,160, bulls expect a climb towards 26,300–26,500. Support is seen near 26,050 and 25,950, while resistance is likely around 26,200 and 26,260.
Five companies will raise a combined ₹14,500 crore in the markets this week, led by ICICI Prudential AMC, which aims to mobilise ₹10,602 crore through an offer for sale priced at ₹2,061–2,165. Retail investors will have 35% reservation, with a minimum application for six shares. Other IPOs this week also comprise mostly OFS issues.
Meesho, which closed last week with 82 times subscription, is expected to list on Wednesday.
Shares worth ₹6,523 crore belonging to anchor investors of eight recently listed companies will enter the market today as their lock-in periods expire. Groww, Lenskart and Pine Labs are among the firms in focus.
Supreme Petrochem temporarily halted production at its Manali unit after water entered the factory premises. The Madras High Court has overturned a ₹279 crore GST demand against Apollo Tyres.
IndiGo is expected to normalise flight services by Wednesday, aided by regulatory relief that temporarily eases work-time norms for pilots—a move that has sparked criticism.
Gold and silver prices continue to swing ahead of the Fed policy announcement. Gold dropped from $4,260 to $4,191 per ounce on Friday before closing at $4,199.30 and climbed to $4,210 this morning. Today’s holiday rate is $4,239. In Kerala, 22-carat gold eased from ₹95,840 per sovereign on Friday to ₹95,440 on Saturday.
Silver surged more than 2% on Friday to close at $58.39 per ounce and edged up further this morning. Platinum stands at $1,640, palladium at $1,442 and rhodium at $7,800.
Gold has rewritten record levels more than fifty times in 2025, fuelled by central bank buying, rising investment demand and speculation that China purchased far more gold than officially reported. Russia is believed to have sold gold reserves to fund its war expenses, while retail investors added heavily to gold ETFs. Jewellery demand has also strengthened.
Major financial institutions predict further gains next year, with Deutsche Bank forecasting a price of $4,950 per ounce in 2026, averaging $4,450. Goldman Sachs expects $4,900, Morgan Stanley sees $4,400 and CLSA projects $5,100. The World Gold Council estimates the possibility of a 5–30% rise, implying a range of $4,500–5,800.
Silver, which has nearly doubled this year, is expected to climb further in 2026. Motilal Oswal projects a range of $70–75 per ounce, with some analysts forecasting a jump to $100. In India, forecasts indicate silver prices may reach ₹2 lakh per kg by early 2026 and ₹2.4 lakh by year-end. Industrial demand, driven by AI chip manufacturing and renewable energy production, is soaring. Domestic demand for investment and jewellery is nearing 4,000 tonnes, while global mining output has been declining.
Industrial metals traded mixed on Friday. Copper rallied 1.51% to $11,645 per tonne, while aluminium slipped marginally. Lead and tin rose, whereas nickel and zinc declined. Rubber prices fell 0.53% in global markets, cocoa jumped 3.85%, coffee softened and tea remained steady. Palm oil rose 1.12%.
The dollar index closed flat at 98.99 after intraday swings, slipping to 98.89 this morning. The euro climbed to $1.165, the pound to $1.333 and the Japanese yen strengthened to 154.95 per dollar. China’s yuan traded steady at 7.07 per dollar, rising to ₹12.72 in the Indian market.
US bond prices slipped, pushing the 10-year yield up to 4.139%.
Dollar–rupee volatility persisted, with the currency closing unchanged at ₹89.98 despite large RBI interventions aimed at smoothing volatility rather than defending any specific level.
Crude oil prices moved higher after the breakdown of Ukraine peace negotiations. Brent closed at $63.75 per barrel on Friday and edged up to $63.83 this morning. WTI rose to $60.17 and UAE’s Murban crude to $65.60. Natural gas futures, however, fell 3% to $5.117.
Cryptocurrencies saw weekend declines before recovering slightly. Bitcoin, which slipped below $88,000, has climbed above $91,000 this morning. Ether rebounded from $2,950 to over $3,110, and Solana rose to $133 after falling to $127. Most major tokens, however, continue to trade well below recent highs.
