BJP's Maharashtra win boosts market sentiment, surge expected today

The Indian stock market is set to see a significant rise today, driven by the impressive performance of the BJP alliance in the recent Maharashtra assembly elections. This has generated optimism, with many expecting a continued upward trend in the market. Foreign investors have notably reduced their short positions in the derivatives market, suggesting a positive market outlook. Additionally, the absence of new disruptions in international conflict zones is another factor that could help the market maintain its momentum.

In the derivatives market, the GIFT Nifty ended at 24,042 on Friday evening, and this morning it surged to 24,327, indicating a strong start for the Indian market today. On Friday, the US market saw positive movements, with the Dow Jones rising by around 1%, while other major indices experienced smaller gains. For the week, the Dow gained 2%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up by 1.7%. The Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies, surged by 4.5%, buoyed by expectations that the Trump administration will support small businesses.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up by 426.16 points (0.97%) at 44,296.51 on Friday, while the S&P 500 added 20.63 points (0.35%) to finish at 5,969.34, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 31.23 points (0.16%), closing at 19,003.65. US futures indicate continued positivity, with the Dow up by 0.54%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.46%, and the Nasdaq rising by 0.55%. Meanwhile, US 10-year Treasury yields have risen to 4.355%.

Global markets

European markets also closed higher on Friday, and Asian markets have started the day on a strong note. Japan’s Nikkei rose by 1.95%, the Korean index gained 1%, and the Australian index hit a new record. The Indian market, which staged a remarkable recovery on Friday, closed near its high for the day, with the rise-fall ratio across the broader market favouring advancers. 

On Friday, the Nifty surged by 557.35 points (2.39%) to close at 23,907.25, while the Sensex rose by 1,961.32 points (2.54%) to settle at 79,117.11. The Bank Nifty also saw a solid gain of 1.51%, ending at 51,135.40. Midcap and Smallcap indices followed suit, rising by 1.16% and 0.90%, respectively. The rally was broad-based, with sectors such as IT, realty, public sector banks, oil and gas, and FMCG being the top gainers, while only the media sector ended in the red.

Foreign investors sold shares worth Rs 1,278.37 crore in the cash market on Friday, but domestic funds and institutions made up for this by purchasing shares worth Rs 1,722.15 crore. Among individual stocks, shares of Adani Green Energy, Adani Energy Solutions, and Adani Power fell sharply, while other Adani stocks saw gains. GQG Partners, a significant investor in the Adani Group, saw its shares rise by 4% in the Australian market today, reversing some of the losses from earlier in the week.

In other notable news, Geojit Financial Services' shares jumped 10% on Friday, closing at Rs 118.63. Kitex Garments announced a bonus issue of two shares for each existing share, but the stock closed down 4.55% at Rs 636.70, with no record date yet announced.

For the day ahead, the Nifty is expected to find support around 23,515 and 23,375, with resistance likely at 23,970 and 24,110.

Gold rises

In the commodities market, gold prices, which had risen significantly due to concerns over the Ukraine conflict, have retreated slightly today. After climbing by $160 per ounce last week, gold prices fell below $2,700 this morning but have since recovered to around $2,699. If the price moves below $2,700, analysts see support at $2,620 to $2,600. In India, gold prices in Kerala increased by Rs 640 to Rs 57,800 per pound on Friday and further rose by Rs 600 to Rs 58,400 on Saturday. However, prices may soften today.

Silver prices climbed to $31.31 per ounce, while the dollar index, which had surged to 107.55 on Friday, dropped to 106.84 today. The Indian rupee strengthened against the dollar, closing at 84.45 on Friday, bolstered by the Reserve Bank of India’s intervention. If the dollar index continues to fall, the rupee could strengthen further.

Crude oil prices also saw a rise, with Brent crude closing at $75.17 on Friday, up by 1.5%. Today, the price is hovering around $75.16, while WTI is trading at $71.26 and UAE's Murban crude at $74.33.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin set a new record, briefly touching $99,699 before falling back to around $97,300. Ether also reached a high of $3,478.83 before dropping to $3,320. There are growing expectations that cryptocurrencies may gain formal recognition as an investment vehicle if key regulatory positions in the US are filled by crypto-friendly officials.

Industrial metals saw mixed movements on Friday, with copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin all declining, while nickel and lead posted gains.

Market indicators

- Sensex 30: 79,117.11 (+2.54%)  
- Nifty50: 23,907.25 (+2.39%)  
-Bank Nifty: 51,135.40 (+1.51%)  
- Midcap 100: 55,016.85 (+1.16%)  
- Smallcap 100: 17,755.55 (+0.90%)  
- Dow Jones: 44,296.51 (+0.97%)  
- S&P 500: 5,969.34 (+0.35%)  
- Nasdaq: 19,003.65 (+0.16%)  
- Dollar ($): ₹84.45 (-₹0.04)  
- Dollar Index: 107.55 (+0.58)  
- Gold (ounce): $2,716.90 (+$47.20)  
- Gold (pound): ₹57,800 (+₹640), Saturday: ₹58,400 (+₹600)  
- Crude (Brent): $75.17 (+$0.80)